{"id":30996,"date":"2021-05-25T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/05\/25\/weapons-of-the-future-trends-in-drone-proliferation\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:36:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:36:53","slug":"weapons-of-the-future-trends-in-drone-proliferation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2021\/05\/25\/weapons-of-the-future-trends-in-drone-proliferation\/","title":{"rendered":"Weapons of the future: Trends in drone proliferation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In January 2001, a Predator launched an inert Hellfire missile at a dummy tank, marking the first successful missile test from a drone. Twenty years on, drones have become a feature of warfare to an extent that few at the time likely could have imagined. Over 100 militaries<\/a> have some level of armed or unarmed drone capability, and a growing number have experience using these systems in combat. The notion of what an armed drone looks like and how it should perform has also shifted as the families of drones and drone munitions have become lighter and more diverse. This is fueling a wider adoption of these systems, potentially complicating the United States\u2019 ability to develop effective countermeasures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The emergence of new drone manufacturers is driving a competitive and dynamic global market for military drones, particularly for medium and large uncrewed aircraft. In addition to those from China, Israel, Turkey and the U.S., new offerings of large drones from companies in Russia, Italy and South Africa as well as many other local research and development projects could offer customers a growing number of options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where some countries may have once gone with a single supplier, military drone inventories are increasingly diverse. Morocco, having recently introduced the Israeli Heron 1, is now interested in the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper, according to a report in Reuters<\/a>. Efforts to loosen U.S. export policy<\/a> as it relates to large drones could grow the number of countries operating American-made systems, though they are unlikely to substantially alter these trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both the declining cost of components for drones and state policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturers have created opportunities for some countries to acquire drones independently of foreign suppliers. Spain\u2019s RAPAZ program, for example, seeks to encourage local industry by acquiring small drones for evaluation by the Spanish military exclusively from domestic producers. Likewise, most of Ukraine\u2019s fleet of small drones is provided by domestic manufacturers like Athlon Avia that responded to a need<\/a> \u2014 sometimes in creative ways<\/a> \u2014 for drones following Russia\u2019s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas region. Partnerships between countries like Ukraine and Turkey, Spain and Colombia, and South Africa and the United Arab Emirates have led to joint projects to develop uncrewed aircraft as well as subsystems and munitions for drones. These collaborations offer manufacturers ways to build local capacity, gain access to new markets and technology, and overcome export restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drones are increasingly equipped with an array of bombs, missiles and other munitions. While air-to-ground anti-tank missiles like the U.S. Hellfire or the Chinese Blue Arrow-7 remain common, they have been joined by guided bombs of various sizes, air-to-air missiles and rockets. As a result, some drones could assume responsibility for missions such as defensive counterair or suppression of enemy air defenses that have typically been carried out by crewed combat aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An emerging class of lightweight, reusable armed drones like China\u2019s Blowfish A3 and Turkey\u2019s Songar can be equipped with swappable payloads of mortars, grenades and light machine guns. The proliferation of strike-capable drones is driving the development and sale of drone-specific guided munitions. Turkey\u2019s Roketsan has said that interest from international customers in its MAM (smart micro-munition) series<\/a> of lightweight munitions for drones has grown in parallel with the interest in Turkish UAVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\t