{"id":33410,"date":"2022-04-13T13:08:58","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T13:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/04\/13\/cyberattacks-dont-win-wars\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:45:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:45:15","slug":"cyberattacks-dont-win-wars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2022\/04\/13\/cyberattacks-dont-win-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyberattacks don\u2019t win wars"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine<\/a> enters a new phase, Western countries are on heightened alert for Russian state-sponsored hacking attacks<\/a>. Yet, while Moscow is capable of unleashing considerable disruption and damage through the cybersphere against Ukraine and its Western adversaries, there is no evidence to suggest that current cyber capabilities, as possessed by any state, can win wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has developed its cyber capabilities over decades, using its large concentration of high-quality mathematicians and physicists. It only takes 20 to 30 top-level cyberattackers to build up advanced, persistent cyberattack capabilities. Russia has a tradition of doing this well \u2014 as well as it excels in the related fields of signals intelligence, encryption, and electronic intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian private cyber sector is also well known around the world. The cyber capabilities of the Russian military feature one of the most advanced technological arrays of its kind. The Ukrainians are also good at cyberwarfare, due to their access to high-quality, advanced personnel, who have been \u201cleased\u201d by companies all over the world in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, despite the above, the war in Ukraine has made clear a simple fact: Cyberwarfare won\u2019t decide the conflict. Russia\u2019s less-than-sweeping achievements<\/a> on this front may have helped encourage it to rely increasingly on devastating conventional firepower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to address what cyber domain activities can do during a war. During Russia\u2019s 2008 war with Georgia, the Russians disrupted their adversary\u2019s ability to function<\/a> by attacking communications systems. These systems can be blocked, but when an attacker does this, they are also blocking their own intelligence units\u2019 ability to eavesdrop on the enemy, which can no longer communicate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This represents a fixed dilemma when it comes to cyberattacks on communications systems. It is usually resolved by finding a balance \u2014 through the right \u201cdosage\u201d between cyberattacks and eavesdropping \u2014 to avoid harming the interests of those initiating the attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other targets for cyberwarfare during conflicts are a state\u2019s critical infrastructure, such as electricity networks and other sensitive core systems. Harming these targets disrupts the enemy\u2019s ability to function and supply itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\t