{"id":36418,"date":"2021-07-09T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-09T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/07\/09\/why-america-could-lose-its-next-war\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:58:01","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:58:01","slug":"why-america-could-lose-its-next-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2021\/07\/09\/why-america-could-lose-its-next-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Why America could lose its next war"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. Department of Defense loves a good buzz phrase: capability over capacity, making the tough choices, taking risk now to reduce future risk. The DoD has used all three to rationalize a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2021\/05\/28\/eyeing-china-biden-defense-budget-boosts-research-and-cuts-procurement\/\" target=\"_blank\">fiscal 2022 budget<\/a> that shrinks the U.S. military\u2019s size in the hope that new technologies will eventually lead to new acquisitions. The truth is the proposed budget is the latest in a series of funding requests that have fallen short of what the DoD needs to rebuild for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The result of 30 years of \u201cbuilding down to build up\u201d is a military that lacks the capacity to fight a single peer aggressor plus defend the U.S. homeland and deter nuclear attacks. Since defense leaders seem reluctant to be forthright and sound the alarm, Congress must step in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Take the case of the Air Force. According to the 2018 National Defense Strategy, defeating a peer adversary\u2019s invasion of a U.S. ally or friend is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armed-services.senate.gov\/imo\/media\/doc\/Colby_01-29-19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">most stressing requirement<\/a> for sizing our military. Preventing a Chinese seizure of Taiwan or a Russian invasion of the Baltic states will require U.S. forces that can launch large-scale precision strikes and otherwise go on the offensive within hours. Only air power \u2014 bombers, fifth-generation fighters and other air combat systems \u2014 can respond over global ranges in time to do this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, 66 percent of the Air Force\u2019s bombers have been sent to the boneyard since the Cold War, and its fighter force is less than half the size of the force that defeated Iraq\u2019s military in 1991. For context, the Air Force\u2019s 140 B-1s, B-2s and B-52s \u2014 its smallest bomber force ever \u2014 may be able to generate 30 strike sorties per day. B-52 bombers alone flew an average of 50 sorties per day during Operation Desert Storm. <\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/congress\/budget\/2021\/06\/02\/air-force-asks-for-more-f-15ex-jets-in-fy22-unfunded-wish-list-not-f-35s\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/210311-F-OC707-9600.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">US Air Force wish list includes more F-15EX jets but no F-35s<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Air Force&#039;s biggest unfunded priority is to buy 12 more F-15EX aircraft.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lack of an immediate, overwhelming response to such an invasion would have a devastating impact on the United States. Failing to prevent China from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2021\/06\/16\/china-sends-largest-group-of-military-aircraft-in-single-day-near-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\">seizing Taiwan<\/a> or completing its dominance over the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/opinion\/commentary\/2021\/05\/10\/how-covid-19-has-impacted-south-china-sea-defense-spending-and-procurement\/\" target=\"_blank\">South China Sea<\/a> would risk demoting the United States to a second-tier military power in the Western Pacific. Similarly, a successful <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2021\/05\/24\/baltic-states-vow-to-tighten-their-defense-ties-with-an-eye-on-russia\/\" target=\"_blank\">Russian invasion of the Baltics<\/a> could fracture NATO \u2014 a long-term goal of President Vladimir Putin\u2019s regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surprisingly, the seeds for defeat lie in the same document that shifted the DoD toward planning for great power conflict. The 2018 NDS prioritizes sizing the U.S. military to prevent China or Russia from seizing territory along each of their peripheries they aspire to control. It also assumes that defeating such an invasion will lead to peace, which means preparing for a prolonged conflict is a lesser priority. But what happens if China or Russia instead chooses to continue the fight and run out the clock on a U.S. military that has sized its forces, munitions inventories and other capabilities for a short war? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2018 NDS also abandoned a long-standing requirement to size the U.S. military to fight a second opportunistic aggressor. As the DoD <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.dtic.mil\/sti\/pdfs\/ADA359953.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">reported to Congress in 1993<\/a>, a two-war force was critical to preventing \u201ca potential aggressor in one region to be tempted to take advantage if we are already engaged in halting aggression in another.\u201d This logic is as sound today as it was in 1993, a fact noted by the congressionally appointed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usip.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2018-11\/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">National Defense Strategy Commission<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201ccapability over capacity\u201d argument for cutting U.S. forces may have made sense in the past, but not in an era where China and Russia\u2019s combined defense spending now exceeds the DoD\u2019s budget. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/training-sim\/2021\/04\/12\/a-us-air-force-war-game-shows-what-the-service-needs-to-hold-off-or-win-against-china-in-2030\/\" target=\"_blank\">Planning for one war \u2014 and a short one at that<\/a> \u2014 presents China and Russia with a viable path to victory. Both are aware of the U.S. military\u2019s diminished size and the fact that its attrition reserves are mostly intended to compensate for losses that occur during training and day-to-day operations, not in a high-intensity conflict. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Denying China and Russia a path to victory will require the DoD to revisit its planning assumptions and increase forces and capabilities that best enable U.S. commanders to quickly blunt an invasion. More long-range stealth bombers and fifth-generation fighters, larger inventories of precision-guided missiles (including anti-ship weapons), and unmanned aircraft should be at the top of this list. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The good news is the DoD has an opportunity to do this as it updates its National Defense Strategy and develops budgets to support it. Unfortunately, the outlook for increasing the size of its forces is not optimistic. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley has said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2021\/06\/23\/bidens-pentagon-chiefs-tell-lawmakers-flat-budget-is-enough\/\" target=\"_blank\">he is comfortable with a flat defense budget<\/a>, which is really a budget in decline after accounting for inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This directly contradicts a recommendation by the National Defense Strategy Commission \u2014 which included Dr. Kathleen Hicks, now the deputy secretary of defense \u2014 that 3-5 percent budget growth was needed to begin closing the DoD\u2019s strategy resource gap. Several U.S. service chiefs have also declined to endorse real growth in defense spending during recent appearances on Capitol Hill. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If America\u2019s senior military leaders are not willing to advocate for resources they know are needed, then Congress must. The alternative is to continue the cycle of cuts that diminish America\u2019s military and increase risk that China or Russia can prevail in a war with the United States. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Retired U.S. Air Force Col. Mark Gunzinger is the director for future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. He previously served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for forces transformation and resources within the policy office of the Office of the Secretary of Defense.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Denying China and Russia a path to victory will require the Pentagon to revisit its planning assumptions and increase forces and capabilities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":37518,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":66,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[7,66,8,160,36,17,19],"tags":[],"coauthors":[4483],"class_list":["post-36418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-air","category-commentary","category-congress","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-opinion","category-pentagon"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"DT6KJPJKEFFSTLIS5SSDM5N7PA","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2021\/07\/09\/why-america-could-lose-its-next-war\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why America could lose its next war - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Denying China and Russia a path to victory will require the Pentagon to revisit its planning assumptions and increase forces and capabilities.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why America could lose its next war\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Denying China and Russia a path to victory will require the Pentagon to revisit its planning assumptions and increase forces and capabilities.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2021\/07\/09\/why-america-could-lose-its-next-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-09T09:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T22:58:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Col. 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