{"id":37181,"date":"2015-06-15T19:38:49","date_gmt":"2015-06-15T19:38:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2015\/06\/15\/commentary-industrial-base-10-years-out\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:59:01","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:59:01","slug":"commentary-industrial-base-10-years-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2015\/06\/15\/commentary-industrial-base-10-years-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: Industrial Base 10 Years Out"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Little \u2014 virtually nothing \u2014 has been said about the way the budget over the next decade will shape the defense industry. Yet, if growth does not return, or if modest growth is not accompanied by addressing problems like personnel costs, the dramatic cuts in buying will fundamentally alter the defense industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Certain &#8220;facts&#8221; dominate the future. These are unlikely to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The government has been creating monopolies (or virtual monopolies) in areas such as submarines, tanks, big combatants, fighters and large aircraft.<\/li><li>The government continues to follow decades-old acquisition practices. Notwithstanding current laudable reforms, requirements exceed technology. Programs exceed cost and schedule. Congress and administrations manipulate programs to please constituents.<\/li><li>The government is exhausting ways to avoid the effects of cuts. Under-the-table sources are ending, like unobligated balances, supplementals, overseas contingency operations and shifting projects between years. Claims of strategic risk are increasing (e.g., the quadrennial defense review). Future years defense plans refuse to comply with laws.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, on the defense industry side, after years of hoping for better future budgets, companies have begun to take actions. They are probing the non-defense markets. They are trimming R&#038;D, cutting people and closing facilities. They are disposing of businesses. They are sending cash to shareholders. The CFOs rule the firms. Finance trumps strategy (or is the strategy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The future looks good only if the spending growth returns. If not, then by 2020-2025 this defense industry will be different from today. There are at least six scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Smaller monopolies<\/b>: Companies continue disposing of cash, assets and businesses to benefit stakeholders. Major corporations shrink and a few disappear. The resulting industry has a few large firms, albeit smaller, and a number of suppliers. Monopolies become more concentrated as firms exit businesses such as ship<span class=\"-newsgate--ccix-command-130\">\u00ad<\/span>building, submarines and fighters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Big utilities:<\/b> The government designates specific companies as platform or system national champions, virtual utilities or companies &#8220;too important to fail.&#8221; Others in these areas disappear. The &#8220;utilities&#8221; become separate entities and their original parents are left with the remaining businesses. The government controls their operations and profitability but guarantees continued funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Arsenalization:<\/b> The government removes &#8220;utilities&#8221; from companies, assumes ownership and incorporates them into government-owned, contractor- or government-operated arsenals. These may be hubs for functions such as production, research, testing or system development, or for specific platforms and systems (e.g., submarines). The private-sector defense industry becomes smaller and more fragmented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Vertical networks:<\/b> Companies create vertical links to resolve excess capacity, win against each other and sustain mass. Ties between primes, subsystem and component providers are made lasting by teaming agreements and joint ventures. Firms give up functions (e.g., marketing, research and manufacturing) and rely on team members. They present the government with vertically integrated monopolies, or duopolies. Some smaller companies exist outside these entities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Industry collaboration:<\/b> Firms unite across the industry to deal with problems that government will not solve. They establish binding standards in areas such as architectures, cost and pricing, and teaming. For example, new standards may require open architectures and prevent bidding on underfunded programs. Government is forced to comply, or face refusals of firms to accept work. Firms continue to shrink and restructure, but the dynamics of competition improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commercialization:<\/b> The government turns over entire major areas of defense to commercial industry. It redefines architectures and acquisition to incorporate commercial elements, including foreign sourcing. The government invests only in R&#038;D of clearly unique military use and in a few black programs. Entire sectors of firms convert, or disappear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Several messages emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Without budget growth or major internal DoD funding changes, the funding available for industry cannot support the existing structure. Monopolies are a major fixture. Dealing with this will impact the future structure of the industry. Companies are already redefining the industry, and shaping its future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is a distinct possibility that budget growth will return. If not \u2014 or if not for a number of years \u2014 the companies will restructure the defense industry on their own. This has major implications for US national security, because the military is only as effective as the tools of its trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most unfortunate is that there seems to be no visible effort in the government or among industry groups to grapple with what the implications of budgets might <span class=\"-newsgate--ccix-command-243\">be. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Pickett is a retired defense company executive and author of a book on business strategies for defense firms.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Little \u2014 virtually nothing \u2014 has been said about the way the budget over the next decade will shape the defense industry.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":43583,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":66,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[66,33,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[1929],"class_list":["post-37181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-home","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"JYAGLNHCZNGMZMV5O4HDN634TQ","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2015\/06\/15\/commentary-industrial-base-10-years-out\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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