HALIFAX and WASHINGTON\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Poland could likely serve as a bellwether for how the rest of Europe may engage with the United States when it comes to foreign military sales and cooperation, as questions swirl about what a Trump presidency will mean for selling weapons abroad.
Poland is also poised to buy missiles, helicopters, and a major air-and-missile defense system from the US. With many of these pending agreements, the goal is for Poland to be partners in development and production of systems rather than simply buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the country will watch closely interactions between America\u2019s President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, even as Poland contemplates what a warmer relationship with Russia could mean for relations with the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump and Putin spoke by phone shortly after Trump\u2019s election win. The conversation about improving relations was positive, according to both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For the undersecretary of state in Poland\u2019s Ministry of Defence, Tomasz Szatkowski, Poland is waiting to see what happens in the early stages of the Trump presidency but does not anticipate a major reason for concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“I think it is too early to be anxious about this,” he told Defense News in an interview at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia on Nov. 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Szatkowski noted the Polish president and Trump have also spoken by phone, describing the conversation as “positive.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poland hopes to continue to show the US it will consistently spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense in compliance with NATO standards, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some in Poland are also concerned there could be a deterioration of access to modern technology from the US due to Trump expressing during his campaign the desire to preserve jobs in the US and protect intellectual property.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poland has set the bar high when it comes to requesting high-level work-sharing for the Wisla program\u00a0\u2014 its air-and-missile defense system\u00a0\u2014\u00a0specifically. The new administration, for example, could agree to sell Raytheon\u2019s current configuration Patriot to Poland but without a coproduction or technology-sharing agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
“With regard to technology, US technology is advanced, but part of the reason we opt for US equipment is we want interoperability with the US troops. This one is very important, which might pay off for both us and [the US], so I think there is a shared interest,” Szatkowski said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He expressed skepticism that the US would create obstacles for allies who want to buy American equipment, adding: “Who knows, maybe we might expect an increase” of US equipment sold abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poland bought 40 of Lockheed Martin\u2019s Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles in late 2014 and wants more along with other rockets and ground-to-ground missiles. The sale of Raytheon\u2019s Tomahawk cruise missiles requested by Poland has yet to be approved, according to Szatkowski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
But, he said, while buying US equipment is a strong priority because of national security concerns, any sales or development agreements between the two countries must be fair. “For example, if we have significantly less favorable condition on the industrial side or on other aspects, then we might be forced to some other solution.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And while the Poles wish to have military equipment that is interoperable with the US, “we are part of the European Union, and we are being pressured within the European Union to buy European,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Polish government, he noted, “has to take care of Polish economic interests as well. We are spending quite substantial sums on defense, and at the same time we need to double up our economy, we need to catch up with the rest of the West in terms of economic infrastructure.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to analyst\u00a0Marek Swierczynski\u00a0at Poland\u2019s Polityka Insight, if the new administration reaches a higher level of understanding and cooperation with Russia, it maybe be difficult to buy missiles and other weapon systems from the US in Poland. Yet, it\u2019s expected that even if Russia pushes back on the US selling systems to allies geographically close to Russia, the US is likely to ignore that, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reviewing some of the scenarios that could play out, Swierczynski said Poland could decide to accelerate an initial purchase of two Patriot systems even if it means foregoing some desired attributes such as Northrop Grumman\u2019s Integrated Battle Command System, which won\u2019t even be ready for the US Army until 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poland is also entertaining other options now to include Lockheed\u2019s Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS), which is currently being developed in Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Polish defense minister Antoni Macierewicz sent a letter to Defense Secretary Ash Carter in September \u2014 obtained by Defense News\u00a0\u2014\u00a0requesting permission to have dialogues with the MEADS team particularly to “develop price and availability information for the MEADS system.” Carter provided permission in response to the letter, according to sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Another possibility is Poland may otherwise decide to wait and see what the new administration does and enter into new negotiations with the new defense secretary, Swierczynski added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Szatkowski said in Halifax that the Wisla program is important “not only for us, but it\u2019s important for the US troops because if we have this capability we can protect some of the infrastructure areas for the US troops in Poland.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet, he added: “Because some of the elements are not available earlier \u2026 we might be able to wait a little longer, but we would, again, like to ask for bridging capabilities in the transition time.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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