{"id":42685,"date":"2020-02-26T10:00:23","date_gmt":"2020-02-26T10:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2020\/02\/26\/arms-control-decisions-by-trump-administration-could-be-imminent-will-china-be-involved\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T23:23:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T23:23:32","slug":"arms-control-decisions-by-trump-administration-could-be-imminent-will-china-be-involved","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2020\/02\/26\/arms-control-decisions-by-trump-administration-could-be-imminent-will-china-be-involved\/","title":{"rendered":"Arms control decisions by Trump administration could be \u2018imminent.\u2019 Will China be involved?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MINOT AIR FORCE BASE, N.D. \u2014 With a major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia set to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/smr\/nuclear-arsenal\/2019\/02\/20\/a-us-russia-pact-preventing-nuclear-armageddon-is-in-trouble\/\" target=\"_blank\">expire next February<\/a>, members of the nonproliferation community have been watching for signs that negotiations may begin in earnest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For those observers, some welcome news: Movement on the Trump administration\u2019s arms control plan is \u201cimminent,\u201d according to a senior defense official familiar with internal administration discussions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, what that looks like appears to be up in the air: a short-term extension of the New START agreement with Russia; something that involves nuclear-armed China; a combination of those two; or all parties walking away entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAll the options are literally on the interagency table,\u201d the official told Defense News on condition of anonymity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The New START agreement, signed in 2010, is an arms control pact between Russia and the U.S. that restricts each country to a total of 1,550 warheads deployed on bombers, submarines and in underground silos. Following the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2018\/10\/23\/one-nuclear-treaty-is-dead-is-new-start-next\/\" target=_blank>dissolution of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty<\/a>, New START is the only major nuclear arms control agreement left between the two nuclear powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China has traditionally refused to sign onto arms control agreements. But Beijing has become a focus for those in Washington convinced that any new arms control agreement must include the Asian nation. China is estimated by the <a href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/issues\/nuclear-weapons\/status-world-nuclear-forces\/\" target=_blank>Federation of American Scientists<\/a> to have 290 nuclear warheads, compared to more than 6,000 for Russia and the U.S. each, and the country is investing in nuclear modernization efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/smr\/nato-2020-defined\/2019\/12\/04\/nato-will-try-to-push-china-on-arms-control\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1172684201.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">NATO will try to push China on arms control<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The alliance getting into the business of brokering global arms control regimes may be an uphill battle.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though top Chinese officials <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fmprc.gov.cn\/mfa_eng\/xwfw_665399\/s2510_665401\/t1681503.shtml\">made clear<\/a> that Beijing will not participate in trilateral talks, U.S. President Donald Trump in December <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2019\/12\/03\/trump-upbeat-on-nuclear-talks-but-lawmakers-warn-of-blow-up\/\" target=_blank>expressed optimism<\/a> that a deal could happen, saying Chinese officials \u201cwere extremely excited about getting involved. &#8230; So some very good things can happen with respect to that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While traveling last week to tour the intercontinental ballistic missile fields at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, Defense Secretary Mark Esper declined to speculate on the state of negotiations and what he would recommend Trump do. But he did indicate there would be a meeting at his level \u201csoon\u201d on the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf we proceed forward [with New START], we have to include Russia\u2019s new strategic weapons. They have to be included in the treaty. Number two, we should include Russia\u2019s nonstrategic nuclear weapons. They have nearly 2,000 of them,\u201d Esper said. \u201cThen I think we should put on the table: Can we bring China into the fold? We\u2019re trying to create strategic stability. It\u2019s hard to do that if you have a country of China\u2019s capacity and capability outside of that treaty.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking at Minot later, Esper added: \u201cIf we want to preserve strategic stability using arms control as a counterpart of that, as a tool in that toolkit, then China should be in as well.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>State of discussion<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While some have theorized that the Trump administration is trying to run out the clock on negotiations, the official ascribed the slow public movement to myriad \u201cdistractions\u201d around Washington that has sucked attention from Trump, Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The official added that the outbreak of the coronavirus known as COVID-19, which originated in China, has made discussions with Chinese counterparts difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There have been ongoing meetings on the issue at the assistant secretary level across the Defense Department, the National Security Council, the State Department and the National Nuclear Security Administration. \u201cUltimate decisions haven\u2019t been taken yet, but [a proposal] should be imminent,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2573\" height=\"1608\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-80813\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg 2573w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg?resize=300,187 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg?resize=768,480 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,640 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,960 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP_18148612320516.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1280 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2573px) 100vw, 2573px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">In this photo made from the footage taken from Russian Defense Ministry official web site on Thursday, May 24, 2018, the Russian nuclear submarine Yuri Dolgoruky test-fires the Bulava missiles from the White Sea on Tuesday, May 22, 2018. The exercise marked the first launch of four Bulava missiles in a single salvo. (AP Photo\/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first challenge, timewise, is the Feb. 5, 2021, expiration date for New START. Getting something done before then may be a challenge, especially if the goal is an expanded arms control agreement that loops in China, but \u201cphysically, you could do it because it doesn\u2019t require senate ratification, just a couple of notes signed by just getting everyone \u2014 the three sides \u2014 to agree to something,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The question of New START\u2019s fate is complicated by the desire to loop in China on a new agreement. Administration officials have been working to develop a compelling case for how to convince Beijing to join a trilateral nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The argument largely comes in two forms. First, that if China does not sign onto a nuclear arrangement of some sort, it could lead Russia or the U.S. to consider growing their own arsenals \u2014 ensuring China\u2019s nuclear inferiority at a time when the Pacific power is racing to grow its stockpile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second argument is that great powers work on nuclear agreements together \u2014 and so joining one as equals with Washington and Moscow should appeal to Beijing\u2019s desire for recognition on the global stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meia Nouwens, an expert on Chinese military affairs with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says those two arguments are the most sensible ones to put forth to Beijing, particularly the appeal to China as a great power. She also speculated that if China\u2019s economy takes a downturn, it may find cooperating with the rules-based international system to be a \u201cgreater priority\u201d than a China-first agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But, Nouwens predicts, \u201cit will require the U.S. and Russia to make the first steps though before China decides to agree to reducing what it views as an already significantly smaller Chinese nuclear arsenal. The trust isn\u2019t there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/smr\/nuclear-arsenal\/2020\/02\/24\/inside-americas-newly-revealed-nuclear-ballistic-missile-warhead-of-the-future\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/5363439.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Inside America\u2019s newly revealed nuclear ballistic missile warhead of the future<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The W93 would be the first new nuclear warhead design for America&#039;s military since the 1980s.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rose Gottemoeller, who served as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security at the U.S. State Department during the Obama administration, before becoming deputy secretary general of NATO from 2016-2019, believes a careful calibration of what, exactly, is being negotiated will be key to any negotiation involving the Chinese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think you can make a case for the Chinese to come to the table early on intermediate-range constraints of ground-launched missiles because they are staring at the possibility of a deployment of very capable U.S. missiles of this kind,\u201d she said at a January event hosted by the Defense Writers Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut I am concerned, they have so few warheads that if you put an emphasis on controlling their warheads, the incentive is for them to run the other direction rather than come to the table,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gottemoeller also indicated that the question of extending New START is a separate one from trying to bring China into the arms control fold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe way the expansion program of New START is written, it\u2019s written so that it remains in place four to five years, so from \u201921 to \u201926, or until superseded by a new treaty. So it\u2019s not as if the administration is stuck with New START for another five years,\u201d she said. \u201cGo for it. Work on the new treaty. Get it done. And then New START would be superseded by the new treaty entering into force,\u201d if ratified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cLet\u2019s just get on with what we need to do in negotiating new treaties. I am concerned that there will be a lot of gamesmanship going on, and as I said, the Russians are excellent in that kind of game as well,\u201d she added. \u201cLet us not play around with leverage in this case, but simply extend the thing for five years and then get done what we need to get done, which is to negotiate these new treaties.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New START agreement expire next February, but the Trump administration hopes to replace it with something that involves China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":83583,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":19,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","home"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"}}},"categories":[160,36,124,19,30],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3378],"class_list":["post-42685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-nuclear-arsenal","category-pentagon","category-smr"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"ZIHEA3YP6ZFDREZLBW4L5NR4GE","arc_canonical_url":"\/pentagon\/2020\/02\/26\/arms-control-decisions-by-trump-administration-could-be-imminent-will-china-be-involved\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arms control decisions by Trump administration could be \u2018imminent.\u2019 Will China be involved? - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The New START agreement expire next February, but the Trump administration hopes to replace it with something that involves China.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arms control decisions by Trump administration could be \u2018imminent.\u2019 Will China be involved?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The New START agreement expire next February, but the Trump administration hopes to replace it with something that involves China.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2020\/02\/26\/arms-control-decisions-by-trump-administration-could-be-imminent-will-china-be-involved\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-26T10:00:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T23:23:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Aaron Mehta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Aaron Mehta\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            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