{"id":49238,"date":"2020-11-09T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-09T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2020\/11\/09\/cybers-uncertain-future-these-radical-technologies-and-negative-trends-must-be-overcome\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:26:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:26:55","slug":"cybers-uncertain-future-these-radical-technologies-and-negative-trends-must-be-overcome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2020\/11\/09\/cybers-uncertain-future-these-radical-technologies-and-negative-trends-must-be-overcome\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyber\u2019s uncertain future: These radical technologies and negative trends must be overcome"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The fate of the world may literally hinge on which states develop and appropriately introduce the radical technologies that are likely to disrupt cyberspace and the world. What are they, and what disruption do they pose? Here are a few, split into two categories:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radical-leveling technologies<\/b> have leapt from linear to exponential capabilities and will shape the future competition:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Additive manufacturing (i.e., 3D printing):<\/b> \u201cWho can manufacture what\u201d may no longer be decided by governments.<\/li>
  2. Human-machine interfacing:<\/b> Where will this lead intelligence collection, privacy and security?<\/li>
  3. The Internet of Things’ expanded attack surface:<\/b> The IoT may invite a near-constant struggle between good and malicious cyberspace actors throughout our government, intelligence, defense and commercial lives.<\/li>
  4. Chain algorithm (i.e., blockchain) and cryptocurrencies: <\/b>We have yet to discern how blockchain technology will be integrated into both public and private networks, such as for protecting the national currency of states, and what such integration will mean for intelligence collection and effects operations.<\/li>
  5. Algorithmic-driven operations:<\/b> Relying on algorithms in operations may aid both our and our adversaries’ operations.<\/li>
  6. Data analytics:<\/b> Successful application of data analytics will help reduce false positives and aid in forensics (by discerning trends better). But new ways to collect, manage and analyze data will have to be discerned.<\/li>
  7. Data localization:<\/b> States are likely to Balkanize cyberspace into defensive pockets to capture and protect data (rather than surrender control entirely to the cloud or to servers outside their states). Russia and China are already Balkanizing their networks; many states will follow Russia and China\u2019s lead.<\/li>
  8. New forms of encryption, including decentralized, local and private encryption:<\/b> Enabled by quantum computing, new forms of encryption will make cyber operations more difficult.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Emerging technologies<\/b> represent new tech \u2014 currently developed or developed within five to 10 years \u2014 that will shape the future competition:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. Artificial intelligence (i.e., machine learning):<\/b> China has declared<\/a> that it plans to be the world\u2019s leader in AI and integrate it as much as possible into its technology and military forces and strategy. How will AI assist or thwart cyber intelligence collection, or affect the development of offensive or defensive cyberspace operations? Setting norms for AI will present new intellectual, technical and legal challenges.<\/li>
    2. Quantum computing:<\/b> The integration of quantum computing will assist and thwart cyber intelligence collection, as well as affect the development of offensive and defensive cyberspace operations. China\u2019s announced 2030 goal to develop a high-performing quantum computer with decryption capability is an existential threat to Western society, as it would afford adversaries unprecedented leverage and advantage over U.S. society. Shifting to quantum-resistant algorithms and encryption present certain costs and technical challenges, and a likely long-term transition.<\/li>
    3. Nanotechnology:<\/b> How will life as well as state vs. state competition change if devices that can impact the environment, health care or energy efficiency are built on the scale of atoms and molecules?<\/li>
    4. Neuroscience technologies \u2014 biology and cyber:<\/b> We have yet to discern how biology and cyberspace will converge to afford biological levels of cybersecurity and cyber biosecurity.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\t