{"id":49360,"date":"2026-01-30T19:59:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T19:59:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2026\/01\/30\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-global-nuclear-cascade\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T16:32:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T16:32:55","slug":"us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-global-nuclear-cascade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/01\/30\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-global-nuclear-cascade\/","title":{"rendered":"US military action in Iran risks igniting global nuclear cascade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Editor\u2019s note: This article is republished from <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us\"><i>The Conversation<\/i><\/a><i> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-a-regional-and-global-nuclear-cascade-274599\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-a-regional-and-global-nuclear-cascade-274599\"><i>original article<\/i><\/a><i>. Military Times has edited the headline.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The United States is seemingly <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble-274626\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble-274626\">moving toward a potential strike<\/a> on Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Jan. 28, 2026, President Donald Trump sharply intensified his threats to the Islamic Republic, suggesting that if Tehran did not agree to a set of demands, he could mount an attack \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/01\/28\/trump-iran-threats-massive-armada-00751756\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/01\/28\/trump-iran-threats-massive-armada-00751756\">with speed and violence<\/a>.\u201d To underline the threat, the Pentagon moved aircraft carrier <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/1\/25\/us-military-moves-navy-air-force-assets-to-the-middle-east-what-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/1\/25\/us-military-moves-navy-air-force-assets-to-the-middle-east-what-to-know\">USS Abraham Lincoln<\/a> \u2014 along with destroyers, bombers and fighter jets \u2014 to positions within striking distance of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Foremost among the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/29\/world\/europe\/trump-iran-threats.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/29\/world\/europe\/trump-iran-threats.html\">various demands<\/a> the U.S. administration has put before Iran\u2019s leader is a permanent end to the country\u2019s uranium enrichment program. It has also called for limits to the development of ballistic missiles and a cutting off of Tehran\u2019s support for proxy groups in the Middle East, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2026\/01\/29\/iran-puts-fingers-on-trigger-as-us-armada-arrives-in-middle-east\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/40711703543_00160c719a_k.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Iran puts \u2018fingers on trigger\u2019 as US armada arrives in Middle East<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Iranian officials asserted that the nation&#039;s armed forces stand ready \u201cto immediately and powerfully\u201d counter any aggression by U.S. forces. <\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump apparently sees in this moment an opportunity to squeeze an Iran weakened by a poor economy and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/iran-protest-death-toll-over-12000-feared-higher-video-bodies-at-morgue\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/iran-protest-death-toll-over-12000-feared-higher-video-bodies-at-morgue\/\">massive protests<\/a> that swept through the country in early January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But as a scholar of <a href=\"https:\/\/ir.sas.upenn.edu\/people\/farah-jan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/ir.sas.upenn.edu\/people\/farah-jan\">Middle Eastern security politics and proliferation<\/a>, I have concerns. Any U.S. military action now could have widespread unintended consequences later. And that includes the potential for accelerated global nuclear proliferation \u2013 regardless of whether the Iranian government is able to survive its current moment of crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Iran\u2019s threshold lesson<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fall of the Islamic Republic is far from certain, even if the U.S. uses military force. Iran is not a fragile state susceptible to quick collapse. With a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/world-population\/iran-population\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/world-population\/iran-population\/\">population of 93 million<\/a> and substantial state capacity, it has a layered coercive apparatus and security institutions built to survive crises. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounders\/irans-revolutionary-guards\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounders\/irans-revolutionary-guards\">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps<\/a>, the regime\u2019s military wing, is commonly estimated in the low-to-high hundreds of thousands, and it commands or can mobilize auxiliary forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4096\" height=\"2784\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-112072\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg 4096w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg?resize=300,204 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg?resize=768,522 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,696 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1044 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2255957507.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1392 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4096px) 100vw, 4096px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People gather during protest Jan. 8 in Tehran, Iran. (Anonymous\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After 47 years of rule, the Islamic Republic\u2019s institutions are deeply embedded in Iranian society. Moreover, any change in leadership would not likely produce a clean slate. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged as much, telling lawmakers on Jan. 28 that there was \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/28\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-armada.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/28\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-armada.html\">no simple answer<\/a>\u201d to what would happen if the government fell. \u201cNo one knows who would take over,\u201d he said. The exiled opposition is fragmented, disconnected from domestic realities and lacks the organizational capacity to govern such a large and divided country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And in this uncertainty lies the danger. Iran is a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/online-analysis\/online-analysis\/2022\/11\/iran-approaches-the-nuclear-threshold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/online-analysis\/online-analysis\/2022\/11\/iran-approaches-the-nuclear-threshold\/\">threshold state<\/a>\u201d \u2014 a country with the technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons but that has not crossed the final line of production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A destabilized threshold state poses three risks: loss of centralized command over nuclear material and scientists, incentives for factions to monetize or export expertise, and acceleration logic \u2014 actors racing to secure deterrence before collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">History offers warnings. The collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s produced near-misses and concern over the whereabouts of <a href=\"https:\/\/bellona.org\/news\/nuclear-issues\/radioactive-waste-and-spent-nuclear-fuel\/2002-11-gan-says-nuclear-materials-have-been-disappearing-from-russian-plants-for-10-years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/bellona.org\/news\/nuclear-issues\/radioactive-waste-and-spent-nuclear-fuel\/2002-11-gan-says-nuclear-materials-have-been-disappearing-from-russian-plants-for-10-years\">missing nuclear material<\/a>. Meanwhile, the activities of the <a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2005\/09\/a-q-khan-nuclear-chronology?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2005\/09\/a-q-khan-nuclear-chronology?lang=en\">A.Q. Khan<\/a> network, centered around the so-called father of Pakistan\u2019s atomic program, proved that expertise travels \u2013 in Khan\u2019s case to North Korea, Libya and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What strikes teach<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whether or not <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble-274626\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble-274626\">regime change might follow<\/a>, any U.S. military action carries profound implications for global proliferation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iran\u2019s status as a <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965\" rel=\"\">threshold state<\/a> has been a choice of strategic restraint. But when, in June 2025, Israel and the U.S struck Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, that attack \u2014 and the latest Trump threats \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965\">sent a clear message<\/a> that threshold status provides no reliable security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The message to other nations with nuclear aspirations is stark and builds on a number of hard nonproliferation lessons over the past three decades. Libya <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/factsheets\/chronology-libyas-disarmament-and-relations-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/factsheets\/chronology-libyas-disarmament-and-relations-united-states\">abandoned its nuclear program in 2003<\/a> in exchange for normalized relations with the West. Yet just eight years later, NATO airstrikes in support of Libyan rebels led to the capture and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/world\/gaddafi-caught-like-rat-in-a-drain-humiliated-and-shot-idUSTRE79K4VO\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/world\/gaddafi-caught-like-rat-in-a-drain-humiliated-and-shot-idUSTRE79K4VO\/\">killing of longtime strongman Moammar Gaddafi<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ukraine <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/factsheets\/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-and-security-assurances-glance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/factsheets\/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-and-security-assurances-glance\">relinquished its nuclear arsenal<\/a> in 1994 for security assurances from Russia, the U.S. and Britain. Yet 20 years later, in 2014, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/what-to-know-about-crimea-the-peninsula-russia-seized-from-ukraine-in-2014\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/what-to-know-about-crimea-the-peninsula-russia-seized-from-ukraine-in-2014\">Russia annexed Crimea<\/a>, before launching an outright invasion in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now we can add Iran to the list: The country exercised restraint at the threshold level, and yet it was <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965\">attacked by U.S. bombs in 2025<\/a> and now faces a potential follow-up strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lesson is not lost on Mehdi Mohammadi, a senior Iranian adviser. Speaking on state TV on Jan. 27, he said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/29\/world\/europe\/trump-iran-threats.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/29\/world\/europe\/trump-iran-threats.html\">Washington\u2019s demands<\/a> \u201ctranslate into disarming yourself so we could strike you when we want.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If abandoning a nuclear program leads to regime change, relinquishing weapons results in invasion, and remaining at the threshold invites military strikes, the logic goes, then security is only truly achieved through the possession of nuclear weapons \u2014 and not by negotiating them away or halting development before completion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If Iranian leadership survives any U.S. attack, they will, I believe, almost certainly double down on Iran\u2019s weapons program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">IAEA credibility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. military threats or strikes in the pursuit of destroying a nation\u2019s nuclear program also undermine the international architecture designed to prevent proliferation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iaea.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.iaea.org\/\">International Atomic Energy Agency<\/a> was, until the earlier Israel and U.S. strikes, functioning as designed \u2014 detecting, flagging and verifying. Its monitoring of Iran was proof that the inspection regime worked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Military strikes \u2014 or the credible threat of them \u2014 remove inspectors, disrupt monitoring continuity and signal that compliance does not guarantee safety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If following the rules offers no protection, why follow the rules? At stake is the credibility of the IAEA and faith in the whole system of international diplomacy and monitoring to tamp down nuclear concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"7549\" height=\"5033\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-112074\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg 7549w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2190165170.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 7549px) 100vw, 7549px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sailors and Marines man the rails as the USS Abraham Lincoln is guided by tugboats in San Diego Bay, California, Dec. 20, 2024. (Kevin Carter\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The domino effect<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every nation weighing its nuclear options is watching to see how this latest standoff between the U.S. and Iran plays out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iran\u2019s regional rival, Saudi Arabia, has made no secret of its own nuclear ambitions, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-iran-nuclear-bomb-saudi-arabia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-iran-nuclear-bomb-saudi-arabia\/\">Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly declaring<\/a> that the kingdom would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet a U.S. strike on Iran would not reassure Washington\u2019s Gulf allies. Rather, it could unsettle them. The June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran were conducted to protect Israel, not Saudi Arabia or Iran. Gulf leaders may conclude that American military action flows to preferred partners, not necessarily to them. And if U.S. protection is selective rather than universal, a rational response could be to hedge independently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Saudi Arabia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/could-pakistani-saudi-defense-pact-be-first-step-toward-nato-style-alliance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/could-pakistani-saudi-defense-pact-be-first-step-toward-nato-style-alliance\">deepening defense cooperation<\/a> with nuclear power Pakistan, for example, represents a hedge against American unreliability and regional instability. The Gulf kingdom has invested heavily in Pakistani military capabilities and maintains what many analysts believe are understandings regarding Pakistan\u2019s nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turkey, meanwhile, has chafed under NATO\u2019s nuclear arrangements and has periodically signaled interest in an independent capability. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/act\/2019-10\/news\/turkey-shows-nuclear-weapons-interest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/act\/2019-10\/news\/turkey-shows-nuclear-weapons-interest\">President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan questioned in 2019<\/a> why Turkey should not possess nuclear weapons when others in the region do. An attack on Iran, particularly one that Turkey opposes, could well accelerate Turkish hedging and potentially trigger a serious indigenous weapons program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And the nuclear cascade would not likely stop at the Middle East. South Korea and Japan have remained non-nuclear largely because of confidence in American extended deterrence. Regional proliferation and the risk of a destabilized Iran exporting its know-how, scientists and technology would raise questions in Seoul and Tokyo about whether American guarantees can be trusted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An emerging counter-order?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arab Gulf monarchies certainly understand these risks, which goes some way toward explaining why <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/media-telecom\/four-arab-states-urged-against-us-iran-escalation-official-says-2026-01-15\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/media-telecom\/four-arab-states-urged-against-us-iran-escalation-official-says-2026-01-15\/\">they have lobbied the Trump administration<\/a> against military action against Iran \u2014 despite Tehran being a major antagonist to Gulf states\u2019 desire to \u201cde-risk\u201d the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The American-led regional security architecture is already under strain. It risks fraying further if Gulf partners diversify their security ties and hedge against U.S. unpredictability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, the Trump administration\u2019s threats and potential strikes against Iran may, conversely, result not in increased American influence, but in diminished relevance as the region divides into competing spheres of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And perhaps most alarming of all, I fear that it could teach every aspiring nuclear state that security is attainable only through the possession of the bomb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Farah N. Jan is a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Pennsylvania.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/274599\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If Iranian leadership survives any U.S. attack, they will almost certainly double down on Iran\u2019s weapons program, argues a Middle Eastern security scholar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":112070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":17,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,36,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[7284],"class_list":["post-49360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"ARB5TICNBRF5NJ5TXCNM3UB4GY","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2026\/01\/30\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-global-nuclear-cascade\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US military action in Iran risks igniting global nuclear cascade - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If Iranian leadership survives any U.S. attack, they will almost certainly double down on Iran\u2019s weapons program, argues a Middle Eastern security scholar.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/commentary\/2026\/01\/30\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-global-nuclear-cascade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US military action in Iran risks igniting global nuclear cascade\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If Iranian leadership survives any U.S. attack, they will almost certainly double down on Iran\u2019s weapons program, argues a Middle Eastern security scholar.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/01\/30\/us-military-action-in-iran-risks-igniting-global-nuclear-cascade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-30T19:59:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-08T16:32:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Farah N. Jan, University of Pennsylvania, The Conversation\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Farah N. 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