{"id":51661,"date":"2018-02-01T20:56:59","date_gmt":"2018-02-01T20:56:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2018\/02\/01\/reality-check-failures-happen-even-in-missile-defense-testing\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T23:44:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T23:44:33","slug":"reality-check-failures-happen-even-in-missile-defense-testing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/space\/2018\/02\/01\/reality-check-failures-happen-even-in-missile-defense-testing\/","title":{"rendered":"Reality check: Failures happen, even in missile defense testing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 The U.S. Navy and the Missile Defense Agency are investigating what caused <a href=\"\/TEMP-LINK-TEMP\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\">a failed intermediate-range ballistic missile target intercept<\/a> over Hawaii. But despite the failure, experts say that in the long run the SM-3 IIA has no choice but to succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The January 31 test involved both the Aegis Ashore system, <a href=\"\/TEMP-LINK-TEMP\/\" title=\"\" class=\"selected-link\">eventually destined for Japan<\/a>, and the Army\u2019s AN\/TPY-2 radar providing target data for the missile, meaning that any number of factors including the missile could have led to the failure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The test involved a hand off to Aegis from AN\/TPY-2, adding layers of complexity to the already daunting prospect of hitting a hypersonic target in space with another missile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a news conference Feb. 1, Dana White, the Pentagon\u2019s top spokesperson, offered limited details on the launch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe can confirm [the test], and it did not meet our objectives,\u201d White said. \u201cBut we learn something all the time from these tests and we learned something from this one. And we\u2019ll continue to improve our capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When it comes to the Navy\u2019s options for shooting down short- and intermediate-range missiles, SM-3 IIA is the only show in town. With the rising threat of North Korean missiles, there is no choice but to learn from the test and move on, experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMissed intercepts are part of what\u2019s going to happen in missile defense testing,\u201d said Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who specializes in missile defense issues. \u201cWe\u2019ve gotten so afraid to fail, and when you are afraid to fail in these missile defense tests, it can really impact the whole program.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The whole lens through which people view these tests should move away from success and failure rates and focus more on continued improvement, she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEvery time we miss and adapt we have a more capable system across the board,\u201d Heinrichs said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The SM-3 IIA is being jointly developed with Japan and is destined to be a mainstay of both the U.S. Aegis Ashore stations in Romania and Poland and the future Aegis Ashore stations in Japan. News broke in December that Japan\u2019s lawmakers had voted to purchase the system from the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The failed test was the third flight test against an intermediate-range ballistic missile. The first test was successful. A test in June became a wash <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/naval\/2017\/07\/24\/sailor-error-led-to-failed-us-navy-ballistic-missile-intercept-test\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\">after a sailor accidentally triggered <\/a>the missile\u2019s self-destruct feature by misidentifying it as a friendly target. The third test appears to be a failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If all goes according to plan, the missile is slated to start being fielded this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4928\" height=\"2940\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43592\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg 4928w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg?resize=300,179 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg?resize=768,458 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,611 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,916 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-530951668.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1222 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4928px) 100vw, 4928px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The U.S. anti-missile station Aegis Ashore is pictured at the military base in Deveselu, Romania, on May 12, 2016. (Daniel Mihailescu\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Failures<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Wednesday launch was an \u201cengage on remote,\u201d which is a complicated shot that requires the Army\u2019s AN\/TPY-2 to hand off highly accurate data to the Navy\u2019s Aegis Ashore system so it can kill the incoming missile. That technology has been years in the making and will forge ahead despite occasional setbacks, set Tom Karako, a missile defense expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe IIA represents block development of a long-running effort to be fielded for the defense of multiple nations,\u201d Karako said. \u201cThe requirement for a faster Aegis interceptor isn\u2019t going anywhere, nor is the demand for cooperative engagement capability underlying launch- and engage-on-remote.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just what impact the failed test has on the Navy\u2019s ballistic missile defense efforts will depend on exactly what caused the failure. But it\u2019s probably not an insurmountable issue, said retired Rear Adm. Archer Macy, the former head of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organization. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s unlikely that there is there is some fundamental problem of physics involved here,\u201d Macy said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hiccups in the testing program are to be expected, Macy said, adding that people shouldn\u2019t lose sight of the fact that hitting a missile with a missile in space is complicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cDoes it look good? No,\u201d Macy said. \u201cTwo out of the three launches of IIA have not gone as planned. But you do this stuff to find out and learn what you can. In the end this is rocket science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNobody believes the challenges from potential antagonists are going away any time soon, and it\u2019s not just North Korea.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Missile Defense Agency head Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves<a href=\"https:\/\/www.military.com\/defensetech\/2017\/08\/10\/us-intercept-north-korea-missiles\" title=\"\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\"> addressed test failures in August<\/a>, saying he doesn\u2019t mind failures but wants to move fast to make the systems better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMissile Defense Agency and industry partners are not afraid to fail,\u201d Greaves said. \u201cWhen we fail, it will be because of a good reason, not because we weren\u2019t prepared for a test or capability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Urgency<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The test failure comes at a particularly cruddy time for Hawaii, which in January suffered through a horrifying 38 minutes after an alert was sent to residents saying that a ballistic missile was inbound and it was \u201cnot a drill.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The false alarm triggered discussion of how best to defend America\u2019s islands in the Pacific and has created fresh urgency to move out as quickly as possible on bolstering missile defenses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Sandy Winnefeld wrote in a Jan. 18 <a href=\"\/TEMP-LINK-TEMP\/\" title=\"\" class=\"selected-link\">op-ed in the Cypher Brief <\/a>that the SM-3 IIA, combined with the AN\/TPY-2, could play a vital role in Hawaii\u2019s defense in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Winnefeld argued that the military should move the AN\/TPY-2 to the Navy\u2019s Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai where SM-3 launchers already reside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTo enhance the defense of Hawaii, it is only necessary to move a radar back to PMRF and load the launchers with SM-3 interceptors,\u201d Winnefeld wrote. \u201cThis would take weeks, not years, and would cost very little. And as the North Korean threat increases, as it will, it will be a simple matter to upgrade this site with already-planned improvements to the TPY-2 radar and by installing the new SM-3-IIA missile.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite the failure, experts say that in the long run the SM-3 IIA has no choice but to succeed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":12780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":23,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,163,16,36,23],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3361],"class_list":["post-51661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-military-space-report","category-naval","category-newsletters","category-space"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"ULU3PTVZKVCRDIECYPVWR4I2ZQ","arc_canonical_url":"\/naval\/2018\/02\/01\/reality-check-failures-happen-even-in-missile-defense-testing\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Reality check: Failures happen, even in missile defense testing - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite the failure, experts say that in the long run the SM-3 IIA has no choice but to succeed.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reality check: Failures happen, even in missile defense testing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Despite the failure, experts say that in the long run the SM-3 IIA has no choice but to succeed.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/space\/2018\/02\/01\/reality-check-failures-happen-even-in-missile-defense-testing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-02-01T20:56:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T23:44:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David B. 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