{"id":54466,"date":"2020-08-04T19:24:39","date_gmt":"2020-08-04T19:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2020\/08\/04\/incoming-pentagon-official-slams-the-us-navys-fleet-plans-as-not-a-credible-document\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:05:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:05:46","slug":"incoming-pentagon-official-slams-the-us-navys-fleet-plans-as-not-a-credible-document","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/naval\/2020\/08\/04\/incoming-pentagon-official-slams-the-us-navys-fleet-plans-as-not-a-credible-document\/","title":{"rendered":"Pentagon nominee slams the US Navy\u2019s fleet plans as \u2018not a credible document\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 The U.S. Navy\u2019s path to 355 ships was unrealistic, prompting the Pentagon to delay the release of the Navy\u2019s annual 30-year shipbuilding plan<\/a>, the presumptive incoming head of the Office of the Secretary of Defense<\/a>\u2019s in-house think tank told Senate lawmakers Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Navy is required to submit to Congress a 30-year plan for shipbuilding <\/a>with its budget, but did not do so this year, which has raised consternation among lawmakers of both parties who have been pushing for a larger fleet to meet what they see as a rising threat from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But John Whitley, Trump\u2019s nominee to be the director of the Pentagon\u2019s influential Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Navy\u2019s plan wasn\u2019t rooted in fiscal realities, adding it was \u201cnot a credible document.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt assumed there were resource constraints for five years and then assumed there were no resource constraints,\u201d Whitley said. \u201cAnd what [Secretary of Defense Mark Esper] was concerned about was that wasn\u2019t a credible document.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe secretary has said he\u2019s incredibly committed to 355. His belief is it\u2019s a number of north of 355,\u201d Whitley said. \u201cWhat he tasked the Navy and CAPE to do, and what I would do if confirmed, is be working with the Navy to get a credible path to a number as quickly as possible that\u2019s north of 355.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 30-year shipbuilding plan got caught up in Pentagon politics after an Office of Management and Budget memo sent to the Pentagon<\/a> ahead of the FY21 budget submission asked why the forthcoming budget shrank the size of the Navy through early ship decommissionings and curtailed shipbuilding instead of growing to 355 ships as President Trump campaigned on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the wake of that memo, which was obtained first by Bloomberg then other outlets including Defense News, then-newly minted Defense Secretary Esper told Defense News in an interview<\/a> ahead of the budget rollout that he was fully committed to 355 ships but said his office would lead the effort to craft a workable force structure to get there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, Defense News obtained a CAPE analysis<\/a> that called for a fleet of dozens of unmanned surface vessels, unmanned underwater vehicles<\/a> and fewer aircraft carriers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., citing Defense News\u2019 reporting, expressed skepticism about CAPE\u2019s desire to make the Navy \u201clighter,\u201d with a fleet of only nine aircraft carriers, from eleven. Whitley declined to discuss force mix directly but cited Navy and CAPE analysis in supporting a fleet that could fight more spread out over a large geographic area instead of concentrated around an aircraft carrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThose are the key attributes that will be guiding the analyses underway right now,\u201d Whitley said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whitley, the Army\u2019s comptroller, has been performing the duties of CAPE director and has been working with Esper to identify lower priority acquisition programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CAPE serves as the department\u2019s internal think tank, creating its own analysis of programs and strategies that are sometimes used to offset those crafted by the services. CAPE, under its previous chief, Robert Daigle, was central in both the decision to require the Air Force buy the F-15X, as well as the call to decommission the Truman aircraft carrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) arrives at Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Portsmouth, Va., July 7, 2020, for an extended carrier incremental availability. (Shelby West\/Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u2018We Need More Money\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years the Navy has dug its heels in on readiness and said repeatedly that it will not hollow out the fleet of trained and ready crews in order to buy more ships. In January, the Navy\u2019s top officer called explicitly for a larger Navy budget<\/a>, saying the National Defense Strategy was clearly a maritime strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHere\u2019s the deal, we need more money,\u201d said Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday <\/a>at the annual Surface Navy Association. \u201cWe need more top line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you believe that we require overmatch in the maritime domain, if you believe that in order to execute distributed maritime operations and to operate forward in numbers now that we need more iron, then, yes, we need more top line.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the main factors holding back the Navy from spending more on shipbuilding is the requirement to fund, from its shipbuilding accounts, the $109-billion, 12-ship Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program. That program, Gilday said, was going to eat shipbuilding alive without more money in the pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To compare, Gilday said the Navy\u2019s budget in the 1980s \u2014 when it was building the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine \u2014 was much higher than today\u2019s budget. Even a minor single percentage realignment would make a difference, Gilday said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOne percent of the DoD budget would be $7 billion per year in the shipbuilding accounts,\u201d the CNO explained. \u201cIf I make some comparison from today and I go back to the 1980s, there are some similarities there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRight now we are building the Columbia class submarine. That is my highest priority,\u201d he added. \u201cBy the time we sundown the Ohio class, we\u2019ll have 42 years in those hulls. We need to get Columbia out there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNow, let\u2019s go back to when we were building Ohio in the 1980s: It was about 20 percent of the shipbuilding budget. Right now, Columbia is about 20-25 percent. In FY26-30 it\u2019s going to be about 32 percent. That\u2019s a lot of dough. In the 1980s, the Navy\u2019s percentage of the DoD budget was 38 percent. Right now, it\u2019s 34. So, I think historically I have a case to make.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Esper has been resistant to realigning the Defense budget to pay for a larger fleet, notwithstanding the impact of Columbia on the Navy\u2019s budget. In his interview with Defense News<\/a>, he said all the services have bills to pay<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClearly, the Columbia is a big bill, but it\u2019s a big bill we have to pay,\u201d Esper said. \u201cThat\u2019s the Navy\u2019s bill. The Air Force has a bill called bombers and ground-based strategic deterrent, so that\u2019s a bill they have to pay.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t