{"id":55306,"date":"2021-01-19T13:54:29","date_gmt":"2021-01-19T13:54:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/01\/19\/as-biden-takes-office-key-nuclear-and-missile-defense-decisions-loom\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:02:36","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:02:36","slug":"as-biden-takes-office-key-nuclear-and-missile-defense-decisions-loom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/smr\/nuclear-arsenal\/2021\/01\/19\/as-biden-takes-office-key-nuclear-and-missile-defense-decisions-loom\/","title":{"rendered":"As Biden takes office, key nuclear and missile defense decisions loom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 When U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office, his national security team will have to work quickly to make calls on a number of key nuclear <\/a>and missile defense decisions, according to a top outgoing Pentagon official.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rob Soofer, who has served<\/a> as deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy since early in the Trump administration, told Defense News in a Jan. 5 interview that he expects a wide-ranging review of nuclear and missile defense issues from the new administration. But he is hopeful that technical reviews needed to keep programs on track will not be delayed in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLiterally everything is on the table, so to speak,\u201d Soofer said, noting there is a limited window before the budget must be produced, perhaps by mid-March. \u201cThey will likely alter President [Donald] Trump\u2019s budget request for fiscal 2022 in some fashion. And I would hope that that they would wait until they conducted their Nuclear Posture Review<\/a> and their Missile Defense Review before they took any precipitous steps with respect to the big modernization programs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think anything that reflects dollars and cents for the FY22 budget is going to have to have near-term consideration,\u201d he added. \u201cFunding for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent<\/a> and the nuclear certification of the F-35 \u2014 all these nuclear decisions are reflected in the budget request, and so in a sense they have to make a decision within months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While most policy decisions, such as questions about the no-first-use<\/a> policy, \u201ccan wait,\u201d Soofer said, a near-term policy decision does have to happen: figuring out the strategy for the New START nuclear pact<\/a>, which expires in early February. The Biden team has two options to pursue with Russia: a one- or five-year extension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soofer, who took part directly in talks with Russia over the last year, believes that based on those talks, there is a real opportunity to get Russian tactical nuclear weapons included in a new version of the agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn order to take advantage of that opportunity, the Biden administration should not extend the New START treaty for five years,\u201d Soofer urged. \u201cIf they do that, Russia will pocket that extension, walk away, and you\u2019re never going to see [the Russians] again.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soofer\u2019s view clashes with some in the arms control community. A Jan. 19 report from the Arms Control Association<\/a>, focused on arms control priorities for the new administration, called for a five-year \u201cunconditional\u201d extension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is no evidence that Russia is desperate to extend the treaty or that a shorter-term extension of New START would make Russia more likely to negotiate a follow-on agreement,\u201d the authors wrote. \u201cNor is a one-year or two-year extension likely to be enough time to negotiate a new agreement. New START took ten months to negotiate and then about as long to bring into force. And that was at a time when the U.S.-Russia relationship was far less tense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
In this May 9, 2017, file photo, Russian Topol M intercontinental ballistic missile launcher rolls along Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow,. Russia says it has met the nuclear arsenal limits of a key arms control treaty but has some issues with U.S. compliance. Monday, Feb. 5, 2018, was the deadline to verify compliance by both the United States and Russia with the New START treaty signed in 2010. (Alexander Zemlianichenko\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Programs in focus<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the programmatic level, Soofer noted there are a number of big decisions on the horizon, with administration planners having to decide what is and isn\u2019t funded in the near term as they produce the FY22 budget request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One specific decision coming up soon is whether to approve Milestone B on the Defense Department\u2019s replacement for the nuclear-capable cruise missile, the Long-Range Standoff weapon, or LRSO, a decision due in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The LRSO program has received a mixed reaction among Democrats, with efforts in 2015 and 2016 to outright cancel the program. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee during the 2016 election, had expressed skepticism<\/a> about the program, leading to the prediction that her administration would try to cancel it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soofer acknowledged that the policy questions around LRSO are something that the Biden administration will have to \u201cgrapple with,\u201d but urged decision-makers not to let that discussion hold up the Milestone B decision, as doing so could have major ramifications for the ability to execute the program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf they wait until they\u2019re done thinking about this in a formal [Nuclear Posture Review] construct, which could take a year, they will not be able to make that [engineering and manufacturing development] EMD decision. So I would hope that there\u2019s enough information amongst senior leadership to at least make an EMD decision,\u201d Soofer said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the missile defense front, the biggest near-term question facing the new team is how to pursue the Next Generation Interceptor program, or NGI. In the FY21 National Defense Authorization Act, Congress ordered the Pentagon to build an interim homeland intercontinental ballistic missile defense interceptor<\/a>, with delivery by 2026, just a few years before the NGI is expected to come online.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Congress did allow a waiver for the Pentagon to skip that interim capability should the department decide it\u2019s unrealistic, but that decision will come due very early in the Biden administration\u2019s tenure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More broadly, Soofer said the \u201ckey question\u201d on missile defense for the next administration is the question of whether to move forward with the Trump administration\u2019s plan to add 20 Ground-Based Interceptors in the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019re going have to make the key decision whether they\u2019re going to continue with the 20 GBIs. If they do, then they\u2019ll find out fairly quickly that the difference between an interim capability, maybe like a heavy [life-extension program] \u2014 the difference between that and the objective system, in terms of time, is maybe one or two years,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd you have to weigh that against a significant enhancement in capability that NGI gets you primarily through the fielding of multiple kill vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAll this is going to be very, very politicized. And the strategy and the technology behind it is going to be weighed.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The incoming administration must make several decisions fairly quickly, says outgoing official Rob 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