{"id":55954,"date":"2022-02-08T14:03:35","date_gmt":"2022-02-08T14:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/02\/08\/russia-inflation-and-washington-gridlock-bidens-next-defense-budget-is-still-a-big-question-mark\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:09:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:09:04","slug":"russia-inflation-and-washington-gridlock-bidens-next-defense-budget-is-still-a-big-question-mark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/congress\/2022\/02\/08\/russia-inflation-and-washington-gridlock-bidens-next-defense-budget-is-still-a-big-question-mark\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia, inflation and Washington gridlock: Biden\u2019s next defense budget is still a big question mark"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2015 If Russian President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine<\/a>, defense analysts anticipate growth in the U.S. troop presence in Europe that would trigger a supplemental defense funding request to Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The projection comes as the buildup of over 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine has fueled Western worries of a possible offensive. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Sunday Russia could invade Ukraine \u201cany day,\u201d triggering a conflict that would come at an \u201cenormous human cost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To bolster NATO allies, U.S. President Joe Biden is deploying about 3,000 U.S. troops<\/a> to Germany, Poland and Romania, the Pentagon announced last week. Biden had placed 8,500 stateside troops on heightened alert, and most would deploy in support of the NATO Response Force, if it is activated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though the deployments so far are relatively small, any large, long-term rotations of U.S. forces would likely prompt the Pentagon to make a supplemental funding request, in addition to its upcoming 2023 budget request to Congress, according to several experts gathered by the Center for Strategic and International Studies to make budget projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think a further Russian invasion of Ukraine will be defining. It won\u2019t be maybe a 9\/11, but it will be close to it,\u201d said Thomas Spoehr, director of the Heritage Foundation\u2019s Center of National Defense. \u201cWe\u2019ll see a supplemental of tens of billions of dollars that the European Deterrence Initiative will get. We won\u2019t talk about China for two years, I would suspect.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How events might unfold in Europe is unclear, so the size of the a potential expense is too \u2014 as is the question of how that expense might compete with the Pentagon\u2019s priority investments in research and development<\/a>, meant to technologically outpace China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Biden has repeatedly made clear he doesn\u2019t intend to send troops into Ukraine, he has sent Javelin antitank weapons and other equipment from U.S. stocks that could be used by Ukrainian insurgents against Russian forces. And the U.S. would likely support Ukraine in other ways that cost money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not going to have boots on the ground in Ukraine, we\u2019re not going to be directly involved. We will be involved in terms of providing [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] support,\u201d said CSIS director of defense budget analysis Todd Harrison. \u201cThere\u2019ll be an [operations and maintenance] cost to that as well. Whether it stays in peacetime or it actually transitions into armed conflict, we\u2019ll have those bills.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the defense budget, a Russian invasion is just one more complicating factor, beyond congressional gridlock, economic inflation and the mystery surrounding when the budget will actually be introduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\t