In their classic work “Thinking in Time,” Richard Neustadt and Ernest May developed a useful manual of statecraft designed to improve the decision-making abilities of national leaders through the proper uses of history. The key to the case studies they examined in Cold War American foreign policy was illustrating the use or misuse of historical analogies decision-makers were referencing in their choices, and making transparent how those historical cases did or did not fit the issue at hand.
Might such a quid pro quo fit the current North Korean missile crisis? With the missiles in North Korea being indigenous rather than imported, there are clear differences between the two crises, and an analysis faithful to the Neustadt-May framework would require a careful balancing of comparisons and contrasts. But the all-important objective of remaining in power, to Castro then or Kim now, may override those externalities. Thus, an American pledge not to attack or invade North Korea \u2014 essentially preserving the regime for the foreseeable future \u2014 might be the diplomatic move that would convince Pyongyang to take down its missile capability. If a compensatory military move is needed (as with the Jupiters) redeploying the THAAD missile defense system would be welcome to China, as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, China will be an important actor in this diplomatic solution. Just as the Cuban crisis was a three-way affair, China would need to be brought into these negotiations to acknowledge the agreement and, perhaps, facilitate the ensuing missile disarmament. A fourth player, the Republic of Korea, might also be party to the talks\u00a0\u2014\u00a0a circumstance more likely now with newly-elected Moon Jae-in seeking a policy of engagement with the North. As each of these parties observe North Korea\u2019s missile and nuclear weapons progress, they should welcome the chance to defuse this crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This proposal is merely a diplomatic d\u00e9marche, with the devil still lurking in the details. If North Korea wishes to have its own satellites in space, for example, a third party would be needed to provide the launch capability. More troublesome will be freezing Pyongyang\u2019s nuclear weapons program when their missile capability has been removed. Here the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action restricting Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons capability may provide a useful template. But that will prove to be another opportunity for correctly thinking in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Robert Haffa is a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and an adjunct professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In their classic work \u201cThinking in Time,\u201d Richard Neustadt and Ernest May developed a useful manual of statecraft designed to improve the decision-making abilities of national leaders through the proper uses of history. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":114320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":66,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[45,66,11,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[413],"class_list":["post-56011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-pacific","category-commentary","category-global","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"ORZPWXPWZ5F2ZHDYZFI7YUI4ZQ","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2017\/05\/16\/take-a-lesson-from-the-cold-war-to-work-with-north-korea-commentary\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"\n