{"id":57094,"date":"2015-10-08T21:58:49","date_gmt":"2015-10-08T21:58:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2015\/10\/08\/mccarthy-withdrawal-raises-wall-street-fears-of-government-shutdown\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:12:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:12:24","slug":"mccarthy-withdrawal-raises-wall-street-fears-of-government-shutdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/interviews\/2015\/10\/08\/mccarthy-withdrawal-raises-wall-street-fears-of-government-shutdown\/","title":{"rendered":"McCarthy Withdrawal Raises Wall Street Fears of Government Shutdown"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>WASHINGTON \u2014\u00a0House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy\u2019s sudden withdrawal Thursday from the race for <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">S<\/span>speaker rekindled Wall Street\u2019s worries about a possible government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Current <\/span>Speaker of the House John Boehner\u2019s announcement that he would step down at the end of October paved the way for a short term continuing resolution, or CR, that keeps the government funded through Dec. 11. As the second ranking House Republican, McCarthy, R-Calif., seemed poised to replace Boehner as <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">S<\/span>speaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">McCarthy&#8217;s announcement on Thursday scuttled any hopes of a smooth transition, and focused attention on two upcoming fiscal deadline: Nov. 4, when the government will reach the debt ceiling, and Dec. 11, when authorization for operational funding expires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This complicates the outlook for the DoD budget, wrote Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan in a note to investors on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;We had been thinking that a worst case for defense was a full-year CR for FY16 to which we assigned a 30 percent probability,&#8221; Callan wrote. &#8220;The underlying tensions leading to McCarthy&#8217;s decision could suggest a worse scenario, which is one or more short shutdowns and then a full-year CR.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Callan said he would wait and see what the next 48 hours will bring before resetting his probabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charles Gabriel, also of Capital Alpha, pointed to three likely scenarios in the wake of McCarthy\u2019s decision. One, Boehner, R-Ohio, could opt to continue to serve as <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">S<\/span>speaker, and use his strengthened position to help negotiate a long-term budget deal with Democrats. Two, House Republicans could coalesce around a centrist by the end of October, and new leadership would deal with the upcoming deadlines. Third, a conservative member could ascend to the speakership, which would heighten the likelihood of a shutdown in the near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With 218 votes needed to select a new speaker, McCarthy&#8217;s decision to &#8220;walk the plank&#8221; rather than seek election with help from Democrats ceded &#8220;effective caucus control to 40 rebellious conservatives,&#8221; Gabriel noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Roman Schweitzer, an aerospace and defense policy analyst with Guggenheim Securities, said that a year-long CR would not be as bad for the DoD and defense sector as some believe. It could give the Pentagon more budget flexibility than under the spending caps set <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">but <\/span>by the Budget Control Act, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;It&#8217;s going to be up to Boehner to get a deal done to adjust the BCA caps,&#8221; he said. If Boehner can&#8217;t strike a deal, it is unlikely that his successor will be able to pull it off, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Schweitzer said he doesn&#8217;t think a shutdown is very likely, but Thursday&#8217;s developments made it more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;It&#8217;s certainly a higher probability than it should be,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Email:\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:aclevenger@defensenews.com\">aclevenger@defensenews.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Twitter:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/@andclev\">@andclev<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Current Speaker John Boehner\u2019s announcement that he would step down at the end of October paved the way for a short term continuing resolution, or CR, that keeps the government funded through Dec. 11.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":115242,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":13,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[33,13,19],"tags":[],"coauthors":[2119],"class_list":["post-57094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-home","category-interviews","category-pentagon"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"XKFFJNYT7VCH7NUHM2NEY7BMMA","arc_canonical_url":"\/interviews\/2015\/10\/08\/mccarthy-withdrawal-raises-wall-street-fears-of-government-shutdown\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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