{"id":60864,"date":"2018-06-14T17:02:13","date_gmt":"2018-06-14T17:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2018\/06\/14\/can-a-software-program-predict-the-future\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:34:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:34:48","slug":"can-a-software-program-predict-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/training-sim\/2018\/06\/14\/can-a-software-program-predict-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Can a software program predict the future?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Will a crop failure in a country cause such a level of instability to be considered a national security threat? Are certain troop deployments better for deterrence, or will they cause an unintended war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The multitude of \u201cwhat would happen if\u201d questions keeps military planners up at night, and proves to be difficult to simulate. Now, BAE Systems may have the answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has sponsored a $4.2 million Phase 1 contract to develop software that will \u201caid military planners in understanding and addressing the complex dynamics that drive conflicts,\u201d according to a statement by the contractor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mostly manual methods currently used to predict and prepare for every contingency \u201chave failed\u201d planners in several ways, according to Jonathan Goldstein, senior principal scientist of the autonomy, controls and estimations unit at BAE Systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The existing modeling tool is \u201ctoo opaque\u201d (planners don\u2019t understand why the model gave a particular outcome), \u201ctoo rigid\u201d (new information can\u2019t be added or errors fixed) and \u201ctoo burdensome\u201d (requiring a lot of effort to configure, update and use), Goldstein asserted.
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