{"id":61933,"date":"2022-08-31T19:34:25","date_gmt":"2022-08-31T19:34:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/08\/31\/why-washington-should-provide-atacms-weapons-to-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:38:01","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:38:01","slug":"why-washington-should-provide-atacms-weapons-to-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2022\/08\/31\/why-washington-should-provide-atacms-weapons-to-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Washington should provide ATACMS weapons to Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Ukrainian military announced the beginning of a much-anticipated counteroffensive<\/a> on Monday, aiming to retake territory in the country\u2019s south. Western weapons<\/a>, which have helped Ukraine strike high-value targets behind the front lines as part of a strategy<\/a> to degrade Russia\u2019s ability to hold the territory<\/a> it has seized, have made Kyiv\u2019s counteroffensive possible and could be decisive in determining its outcome. That\u2019s why Washington should provide Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile System without delay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. provision of ATACMS would allow Kyiv to strike key logistics nodes and other high-value targets beyond the range of Ukraine\u2019s current precision-strike capabilities. Some worry that providing the new capability to Ukraine could precipitate Russian escalation, but that risk is overstated and can be mitigated by requiring Kyiv to use ATACMS only against Russian military targets on Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a condition could accompany the shipment of ATACMS if the Biden administration deems it necessary. Kyiv has already proven it can responsibly and effectively employ U.S.-supplied systems ranging from Javelin missiles to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, and Washington has good reason to believe Kyiv would employ ATACMS in the same manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile that can be fired from HIMARS as well as from the multiple-launch rocket systems Ukraine has received from the United Kingdom<\/a> and Germany<\/a>. Modern ATACMS variants have a range of up to 300 kilometers<\/a> (186 miles) and carry a 500-pound unitary warhead, which means they can hit targets at well over three times the range of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System rounds<\/a> Ukraine is already using to great effect, with a warhead approximately 2.5 times bigger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A U.S. Marine Corps HIMARS fires during an exercise in Australia. (Lance Cpl. Alyssa Chuluda\/U.S. Marine Corps)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The additional capabilities provided by ATACMS would allow Ukraine to strike high-value targets farther behind the front lines with greater ease, frequency and effectiveness. The Aug. 9 attack on Saki air base in Crimea, which damaged or destroyed<\/a> roughly half the combat aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet\u2019s 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment, shows the potential of deep strikes against Russian forces and facilities. Striking air bases and ammunition depots used by Russian forces in Ukraine (including in Crimea) would degrade Moscow\u2019s ability to sustain its forces and oppose Ukraine\u2019s new counteroffensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, ATACMS could help degrade Russia\u2019s long-range strike capabilities, which have been used to systematically target Ukrainian cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, Ukrainian forces could use ATACMS to hold at risk docked Russian naval vessels and infrastructure at Russia\u2019s base in Sevastopol, undermining Russia\u2019s ability to conduct sea-launched missile strikes and to enforce its blockade of Ukraine\u2019s Black Sea ports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATACMS strikes against higher-echelon Russian command-and-control nodes located beyond GMLRS range could disorganize Russian forces. And destroying S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems would enable the Ukrainian Air Force to operate more effectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps most important, the Ukrainian military could destroy railheads and bridges on which Russia depends to supply its forces<\/a>. The Russian military relies heavily on railways to move supplies, and it lacks the truck capacity to replace rail transport, especially after Ukrainian forces have destroyed hundreds of Russian military trucks<\/a> using weapons provided by the United States and its allies. Destroying these key logistical nodes could disrupt Russian logistics at the operational level, similar to what GMLRS strikes against Russian fuel and ammo depots<\/a> have achieved at the tactical level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, a perceived lack of military utility is not why the Biden administration has declined<\/a> to provide ATACMS to Ukraine; the White House fears Russian escalation in response to the provision of ATACMS. That is why President Joe Biden in May decided against sending ATACMS to Ukraine, saying the United States would give Ukraine the GMLRS but would not \u201csend to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is good reason to believe these concerns are overstated. For one thing, Moscow\u2019s reaction to the provision of advanced Western military systems to Ukraine<\/a> has so far featured lots of bark but little bite. Despite Russian saber-rattling, Moscow has refrained from attacking any NATO member \u2014 even as Western support helped Ukraine defeat Russia\u2019s assault on Kyiv and stymie Moscow\u2019s subsequent efforts in eastern Ukraine, killing or wounding<\/a> an estimated 70,000-80,000<\/a> invading Russian troops in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A Russian soldier guards an area in Kherson, Ukraine, on May 20, 2022, with a replica of the Victory banner marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II in the background. (AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to want no part of a direct conflict with the United States, which is exactly what he would be risking if Russia attacked a NATO member. That\u2019s particularly true at a time when the bulk of Russia\u2019s military is tied down \u2014 and heavily degraded \u2014 in Ukraine. This calculus is unlikely to change with the introduction of ATACMS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, it is important to note that on some parts of the battlefield, Ukrainian forces can already range Russian territory using GMLRS as well as fixed-wing aircraft that are maintained with Western support<\/a>. Yet, Kyiv has respected U.S. requests not to use long-range, American-provided weapons to strike targets inside Russia itself. The Ukrainians can be expected to honor a similar request related to ATACMS, were the Biden administration to attach such a condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some may argue Putin could respond by using or threatening to use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Regarding chemical weapons, the specter of their use has loomed over the conflict since it began, given Russia\u2019s track record of using such weapons to target regime opponents around the world, as well as Moscow\u2019s efforts to cover up the Assad regime\u2019s use of chemical weapons in Syria<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Russia has apparently refrained from employing chemical weapons in Ukraine, perhaps fearing their use would further isolate Moscow and galvanize additional international support for Ukraine while achieving little in terms of tangible battlefield results<\/a>. That fundamental calculus is unlikely to change if Kyiv receives the ATACMS, particularly if used only inside Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Russian use of a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine \u2014 or, more plausibly, the threat to do so as a tool of coercive leverage \u2014 obviously carries profound risks. While this threat should be carefully monitored, it seems unlikely, especially since Ukraine reportedly has already conducted a number of drone<\/a>, helicopter<\/a> and sabotage<\/a> attacks on Russian territory without triggering Russian escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow has given no indication it is contemplating nuclear use against Ukraine, and likely would not do so except in the most extreme circumstances. The likelihood of Russia using a nuclear weapon against a NATO member is even lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Admittedly, it hardly seems fair to ask Kyiv to refrain from cross-border ATACMS strikes when Putin continues to trample on Ukrainian sovereignty and kill Ukrainian citizens. But providing Kyiv with ATACMS while restricting their use to Ukrainian territory (including in Crimea) can both help Ukraine defeat \u2014 rather than manage \u2014 Putin\u2019s invasion while avoiding direct conflict between Russia and NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with restrictions, providing Ukraine ATACMS is far better than not providing the weapons at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Brobst is a research analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where John Hardie is a senior research analyst focusing on Russian foreign and security policy. Bradley Bowman, senior director of the think tank center, previously served as a national security adviser to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. He was also a U.S. Army officer and an assistant professor at the U.S. Military Academy.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ATACMS can help Ukraine defeat the invasion while avoiding direct conflict between Russia and 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