Arnold Punaro, a consultant and former staff director on the Senate Armed Services Committee, predicts the narrow Republican House majority could amplify these tensions but not completely derail defense funding next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRepublicans in the House are expected to continue the recent increases in defense funding \u2014 though they will have to contend with the deficit hawks and isolationist wings of both parties \u2014 [and] increase the focus on addressing the threat from China,\u201d he wrote in a November whitepaper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Defense top line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The GOP has accused President Joe Biden of proposing insufficient increases to the defense budget during his first two years in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans teamed up with centrist Democrats earlier this year<\/a> to provide billions of dollars in additional funding for the Defense Department<\/a>, citing the impact of spiraling inflation on Pentagon purchasing power amid what the government perceives as heightened threats from Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, in line to become the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee next year, is pushing for an audacious goal right off the bat: a defense budget top line that would well exceed $1 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe need to increase defense spending to 5% of [gross domestic product] and take seriously our responsibility to prevent a two-theater war,\u201d Wicker told Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The $777.7 billion defense top line for fiscal 2022 amounted to approximately 3% of national GDP. The amount Wicker wants would require a fiscal 2023 defense budget of nearly $1.3 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Still, Congress is unlikely to allocate such a high level of defense spending given the Democratic majority in the Senate and the Republican deficit hawks in the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For his part, Punaro expects \u201cpossible tensions between the deficit and defense hawks in the Republican party moving forward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn past years in a Republican-controlled House, the deficit hawks, coupled with the anti-defense Democrats, were able to defeat defense increases,\u201d he wrote. He noted there have been \u201cbig increases for defense over the last two years\u201d in a Democrat-held Congress, and he predicts \u201canother increase in FY 23.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n After the White House asked Congress in November for an additional $38 billion in Ukraine assistance<\/a>, House Armed Services Committee member Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., joined Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, R-Ga., at a news conference alongside other House Freedom Caucus members to blast the request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI\u2019m here as a member of the House Armed Services Committee to say that the days of endless cash and military materiel to Ukraine are numbered,\u201d Gaetz said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The majority of the GOP conference has joined Democrats in voting for Ukraine aid, but 57 House Republicans voted against a $40 billion package in May<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., favored to become speaker next year, vowed in October there will be no \u201cblank check\u201d for Ukraine in a Republican-run House. While he has not committed to entirely cutting off assistance to Kyiv, he also hasn\u2019t promised to put additional Ukraine aid to a vote on the House floor next year if the Biden administration makes new <\/b>requests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A Wall Street Journal poll released in early November<\/a> found a sharp decline in Republican voter support for Ukraine aid, with 48% saying the U.S. is doing too much to help Kyiv. The poll found 37% of Republicans support additional aid for Ukraine, and 57% of all voters support it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump strongly opposes Ukraine aid as well. In November, he launched his 2024 presidential run, potentially elevating the issue on the national stage next year and further eroding Republican support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Democrats are sending another $40 billion to Ukraine, yet America\u2019s parents are struggling to even feed their children,\u201d Trump said in a May statement through his Save America PAC after Congress passed its second supplemental funding bill for Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Conversely, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has consistently called for additional aid to Ukraine beyond what the Biden administration has provided<\/a>, including the Army Tactical Missile System, a long-range surface-to-surface missile launcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUkraine needs more tanks, fighting vehicles, longer-range rockets, artillery and air defense systems, more [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems], more drones and preparatory training in Western aircraft,\u201d McConnell said on the Senate floor in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite differences within the Republican Party, members are likely to unite in their newly won House majority to hold the Biden administration\u2019s feet to the fire with congressional oversight and investigations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rep. Mike McCaul of Texas, the incoming chairman on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has started to lay the groundwork for an Afghanistan investigation, telling Secretary of State Antony Blinken in October to preserve all records related to the Biden administration\u2019s chaotic 2021 withdrawal from the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Congressional hearings could begin as early as February, before the annual defense budget process begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A senior Republican aide, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss future plans, in October told Defense News the party will \u201ccontinue to ask questions regarding [the Defense Department\u2019s] vaccine mandate and how it\u2019s affected readiness.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans\u2019 fixation on issues they label \u201cwoke,\u201d such as diversity and gender equity, have also crept into military hearings over the last year, leading to fights between conservative lawmakers and Pentagon leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Punaro predicts House Republicans will use their majority to \u201clook into military personnel policies that they view [as] tied to progressive social agendas and [as] hurting recruitment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n House Republicans, while campaigning for the midterm elections, also vowed to establish a select committee on China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans established their China task force early in 2020 after Democrats refused to participate, accusing Trump of scapegoating Beijing for his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While the House\u2019s current China Task Force remains an entirely partisan initiative for now, it has advanced hundreds of proposals \u2014 many of which enjoy robust bipartisan support. The task force has worked closely with Taiwan\u2019s diplomatic office and pushed to provide the nation with more American weapons<\/a> at a faster pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n McCarthy has also vowed to visit Taiwan when he becomes speaker, emulating the August trip to the island by outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif<\/a>. Her visit led to China conducting a massive military exercise in the nearby strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYou\u2019ve also seen Republicans make nuclear modernization a priority as adversaries like Russia and North Korea threaten the use of nuclear weapons, and as China has rapidly increased their nuclear arsenal,\u201d the senior Republican aide said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The House\u2019s China Task Force also proposed subsidies and tax incentives to persuade manufacturers to develop semiconductors in the U.S. instead of in China and other Asian countries<\/a>. The move is part of a broader effort to shore up the U.S. defense-industrial base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Congress ultimately passed into law $52 billion worth of these subsidies in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As Congress continues to move the defense-industrial base further from Chinese influence, Republicans and Democrats are likely to find more opportunities for bipartisan consensus in addressing supply chain chokepoints and accelerating munitions production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor the past year, Rogers has been vocal about the need for active production lines to produce munitions and weapons that the U.S. and our allies may need,\u201d the Republican aide said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lawmakers have voiced concerns the Pentagon is moving too slowly in awarding contracts to replenish weapons stockpiles<\/a> as the U.S. military pulls from its own inventory to support Ukraine. Furthermore, supply chain snags and workforce shortages have hindered defense contractors\u2019 ability to quickly produce materiel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S. has sent at least a quarter of its Stinger anti-aircraft missile stockpile and one-third of its Javelin anti-tank munition inventory to Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Punaro predicts Congress is likely to remain interested in \u201ccritical rare earth minerals\u201d as part of an effort to address \u201csupply chain constraints\u201d and \u201cworkforce recruiting and retention.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lawmakers have sought to increase funding for the U.S. strategic mineral reserve, known as the National Defense Stockpile, to provide Washington with more options in an emergency<\/a>. China controls the global market on many of these minerals, such as antimony \u2014 an alloy used to produce bullets and more advanced ammunition<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These issues \u2014 coupled with bipartisan distrust of China \u2014 provide ample incentive for the Armed Services committees to continue advancing the annual defense policy bill in 2023, even if the narrow margins of control and partisan acrimony create some drama along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cEvery time there\u2019s a transition … from one party to the next, there\u2019s at least six months of feeling out what\u2019s possible and what\u2019s not,\u201d outgoing House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith of Washington, who will serve as the panel\u2019s top Democrat next year, told Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIncoming Chairman Rogers and I are very much on the same page on 98% of the work.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The GOP will control the House next year, but the narrow lead and conservative divide could complicate their defense agenda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":73041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":8,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[44,8,160,36,18],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3411,3424],"class_list":["post-63197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-budget","category-congress","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-outlook"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"X6Z3UNIFNJE4PAXM35V23XUDME","arc_canonical_url":"\/congress\/2022\/12\/05\/how-a-republican-majority-in-the-house-will-affect-defense-policy\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"\nSupport for Ukraine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1428774479-1.jpg.jpg\")
Oversight and investigations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/21_special_secondaryChamber.jpg.jpg\")
Targeting China<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Defense-industrial base<\/h2>\n\n\n\n