{"id":63447,"date":"2023-02-06T16:59:25","date_gmt":"2023-02-06T16:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2023\/02\/06\/china-seizure-of-taiwan-not-imminent-says-key-dod-official\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:39:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:39:32","slug":"china-seizure-of-taiwan-not-imminent-says-key-dod-official","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2023\/02\/06\/china-seizure-of-taiwan-not-imminent-says-key-dod-official\/","title":{"rendered":"China seizure of Taiwan not \u2018imminent,\u2019 says key DoD official"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-smg-jwplayer-video\"><atype-video-jwplayer nostick=\"true\" playlisturl=\"https:\/\/cdn.jwplayer.com\/v2\/playlists\/fCzRqMW8?tags=19ca181b-9dfe-43ee-a9aa-6845f6e0ae43\" poster=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/video-poster-19ca181b-9dfe-43ee-a9aa-6845f6e0ae43.png\" aspectratio=\"16 \/ 9\" mute autostart=\"false\"><\/atype-video-jwplayer><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The undersecretary of defense for policy, Colin Kahl, doesn&#8217;t \u201csee anything that indicates [an invasion of Taiwan] is imminent in the next couple of years.\u201d<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2015 There\u2019s no indication China will attempt to take Taiwan imminently, a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday, responding to an Air Force general\u2019s leaked <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2023\/02\/01\/this-air-force-general-is-rallying-his-troops-for-war-with-china\/\" target=\"_blank\">assessment<\/a> that an attempt could be made in the next two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The four-star in charge of U.S. Air Mobility Command, Gen. Mike Minihan, said in a recent memo to his troops, \u201cMy gut tells me will fight [China] in 2025,\u201d and urged them to prepare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asked about that timeline, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2023\/01\/19\/us-still-holds-back-long-range-atacms-missiles-from-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\">Colin Kahl<\/a> said, \u201cI don\u2019t see anything that indicates that this thing is imminent in the next couple of years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kahl\u2019s full remarks on Jan. 31 were part of an exclusive interview with the Defense News\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/early-bird-brief\/id1644772953?i=1000598231727\" target=\"_blank\">Early Bird Brief podcast<\/a>, which was released Monday. They preceded the most recent blow to strained U.S.-China relations: The U.S. military on Saturday shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the Carolina coast after it traversed sensitive military sites across North America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Minihan\u2019s views reflected high-level concerns in the U.S. military over a possible attempt by Beijing to seize Taiwan, which China claims as territory. Both the U.S. and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, which could create an opening for China to cause trouble, Minihan wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. Defense Secretary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2022\/12\/04\/pentagon-chief-us-faces-pivotal-years-in-countering-china\/\" target=\"_blank\">Lloyd Austin<\/a> said last month he seriously doubts China\u2019s stepped up military exercises around Taiwan means Beijing is planning an imminent invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. has bolstered military relations with nations such as Japan, South Korea and Australia in response to North Korean and Chinese aggression. Austin last week visited the Philippines and Seoul to strengthen ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2022\/11\/29\/chinas-buildup-more-aggressive-to-taiwan-but-no-imminent-invasion\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP22108349259772.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Pentagon sees no imminent threat to Taiwan from Chinese buildup<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Annual report outlines China&#039;s military progress.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kahl told Defense News in spite of China\u2019s military modernization efforts, China\u2019s coercive behavior towards the island nation and investments in amphibious capabilities, he sees \u201cno sign\u201d Chinese President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2022\/10\/18\/as-xi-calls-for-reunification-pentagon-says-china-policy-is-unchanged\/\" target=\"_blank\">Xi Jinping<\/a> and his fellow leaders believe the Chinese military is capable enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThey understand well that the United States continues to have pretty significant overmatch in a lot of critical domains, and that Xi Jinping would \u2015 all else being equal \u2015 like to resolve the Taiwan issue without having to resort to force,\u201d Kahl said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kahl said China\u2019s military has been untested by war for several decades and likened it to Russia\u2019s, whose performance in Ukraine has frustrated Moscow. America\u2019s \u201cdeterrent capability is meaningful and real,\u201d and its forces are honed by experience, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s kind of like saying you got the two teams in the preseason that look like they should be in the Super Bowl, except one team has never played a single game. And the other team has been playing season after season after season for decades,\u201d Kahl said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI don\u2019t think the PRC leadership assesses that this is possible, and I\u2019m not sure that they\u2019ve made any decision about whether it\u2019s even desirable,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Colin Kahl responded to an Air Force general\u2019s leaked assessment that an attempt could come in the next two years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":117184,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":19,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"4":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"5":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"6":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"7":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"8":{"categories":["federal-oversight","home"],"primary_category":"federal-oversight"}}},"categories":[160,36,19],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3446],"class_list":["post-63447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-pentagon"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"DZEBCXSM2FH4ZPXH2MY5YEOV7I","arc_canonical_url":"\/pentagon\/2023\/02\/06\/china-seizure-of-taiwan-not-imminent-says-key-dod-official\/","remove_feature_photo":true,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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