{"id":64774,"date":"2023-07-12T14:04:11","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T14:04:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2023\/07\/12\/ukraines-push-for-f-16s-risks-a-battlefield-advantage-simplicity\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:58:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:58:05","slug":"ukraines-push-for-f-16s-risks-a-battlefield-advantage-simplicity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2023\/07\/12\/ukraines-push-for-f-16s-risks-a-battlefield-advantage-simplicity\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s push for F-16s risks a battlefield advantage: simplicity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine\u2019s armed forces, recently made another impassioned plea for F-16s, arguing that Western countries would not themselves launch a counteroffensive without air superiority. Yet, Kyiv is trying to do just that while awaiting the delivery of F-16 fighter jets, he complained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA very limited number would be enough,\u201d Zaluzhny <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2023\/06\/30\/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview\/\"><u>said<\/u><\/a>, linking their arrival to the success of Ukraine\u2019s ongoing counteroffensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That claim is as bold as it is doubtful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though an advanced multirole fighter, small numbers of F-16s can neither deliver air superiority to Ukraine nor can they provide a means of breaking through Russia\u2019s heavily fortified defensive lines. And making Ukraine\u2019s operations more complex is a bad strategy. Simplicity is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jcs.mil\/Doctrine\/Joint-Doctrine-Pubs\/Capstone-Series\/\"><u>principle of war<\/u><\/a>, and pivoting to a Western way of air war would be an inherently complex endeavor and raise the odds of failure. Instead of trying to overcome the multi-layered dilemmas posed by Russia\u2019s air- and ground-to-air threats and gain air superiority, Kyiv ought to stay the course with its simple but effective <a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2022\/06\/in-denial-about-denial-why-ukraines-air-success-should-worry-the-west\/\"><u>air-denial strategy<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia\u2019s air force on offense has failed to impress in this war, but nobody should kid themselves about Russia\u2019s air defenses. To succeed, Ukraine would need to suppress or destroy Russian surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), especially the <a href=\"https:\/\/missilethreat.csis.org\/defsys\/s-400-triumf\/\"><u>S-400<\/u><\/a> threat. Relying on F-16s, equipped with High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), Ukrainian pilots would have to fly well into the S-400\u2032s envelope to bait Russian operators into emitting. The S-400 has an engagement range of nearly 250 miles, that is, four times the range of an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalsecurity.org\/military\/world\/ukraine\/ua-harm.htm\"><u>AGM-88 HARM<\/u><\/a>. This makes it an inherently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.heritage.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-03\/IB5310.pdf\"><u>dangerous mission<\/u><\/a>. Even if the F-16s survived to fire their missiles, Russian SAM crews could stop emitting and move \u2014 making it difficult for Ukrainian pilots to effectively close the kill chain. Ukraine\u2019s losses would be high, and such a strategy would quickly become unsustainable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But none of this should come as a surprise. Moscow would be taking a page from Kyiv\u2019s own air-denial playbook, leveraging the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stimson.org\/2023\/assumption-testing-is-airpower-inherently-offensive\/\"><u>inherent advantage<\/u><\/a> of mobile, ground-based air defenses over expensive, fixed-wing aircraft to make the achievement of air superiority prohibitively costly. Put simply, a symmetric contest between a limited number of Ukrainian F-16s and Moscow\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.org\/reports\/2023\/04\/Russian-Combat-Air-Strengths-and-Limitations.pdf\"><u>large inventory<\/u><\/a> of SAMs is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/opinion\/commentary\/2023\/01\/25\/air-defense-upgrades-not-f-16s-are-a-winning-strategy-for-ukraine\/\"><u>losing proposition<\/u><\/a> for Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some airpower enthusiasts will nevertheless be quick to suggest that even if Ukraine\u2019s air-denial strategy was successful against Russian troops on the offensive, air superiority is required now that the tables have turned, and Ukraine\u2019s armed forces have taken the counteroffensive. But Ukraine\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/opinion\/commentary\/2022\/09\/21\/success-denied-finding-ground-truth-in-the-air-war-over-ukraine\/\"><u>battlefield success<\/u><\/a> rests on it continuing to deny air superiority to Russia, not achieving air superiority outright. Considering the Ukrainian counteroffensive, U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General Charles Q. Brown stressed the important role of air denial. \u201cIt keeps Russian airpower off the back of the Ukrainians and allows them to execute a bit better, being able to use their air defense to their advantage,\u201d Brown <a href=\"https:\/\/mitchellaerospacepower.org\/event\/6-7-aerospace-nation-gen-charles-q-brown-jr\/\"><u>explained<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest aerial threat to the counteroffensive comes from Russia\u2019s exploitation of a critical deficit in Ukraine\u2019s air-denial capabilities \u2014 insufficient numbers of mobile short-range air defense systems (SHORAD).These systems are particularly important for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thedrive.com\/the-war-zone\/13284\/americas-gaping-short-range-air-defense-gap-and-why-it-has-to-be-closed-immediately\"><u>protecting<\/u><\/a> Ukrainian forces as they advance in the open across mostly flat fields, particularly from Russian attack helicopters. Moscow is increasingly using the KA-52 \u201cAlligator\u201d armed with laser-guided 9K121 \u201cVikhr\u201d missiles capable of striking moving targets at about five or six miles. By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thedrive.com\/the-war-zone\/ukraines-armor-appears-to-have-a-russian-attack-helicopter-problem\"><u>operating<\/u><\/a> their helicopters at the edge of this weapons range, and just beyond the reach of Ukraine\u2019s Western-provided shoulder-fired, man-portable air defense systems, Russian helicopters can remain at relatively safe distance while striking the leading elements of Ukraine\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d8fe8941-3703-433d-ac7a-dab9ba500481\"><u>advancing armor units<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These challenges should not cause Ukraine to abandon its successful air-denial strategy. On the contrary, they point to an urgent need for Ukraine to close a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d8fe8941-3703-433d-ac7a-dab9ba500481\"><u>critical gap<\/u><\/a> in its air-denial capabilities. Specifically, Ukraine needs mobile and self-contained SHORAD systems like the U.S.-made AN\/TWQ-1 Avenger and German-made <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-06-24\/germany-to-step-up-anti-aircraft-tanks-for-ukraine-welt-says\"><u>Gepard<\/u><\/a> capable of advancing alongside and protecting Ukraine\u2019s attacking forces. The United States has sent only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2022\/11\/10\/ukraine-avenger-air-defenses\/\"><u>20 Avengers<\/u><\/a> to Ukraine, but given that the U.S. Army is in the process of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/land\/2023\/04\/13\/army-short-range-air-defense-laser-prototypes-take-down-drones-at-yuma\/\"><u>replacing<\/u><\/a> them with a new and more modern system, it may be possible for Washington to send more Avengers to Ukraine now and backfill stocks with the new system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The West may be tempted to speed up delivery of F-16s to Ukraine \u2014 complex enough, given the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20230519-birds-in-a-cage-logistical-challenges-on-cards-if-ukraine-gets-f-16s\"><u>logistical challenges<\/u><\/a><u> <\/u>\u2014 and hope Ukraine can achieve the complicated and ephemeral state of air superiority, but it should ask itself first some hard questions about strategy. Too often, these debates have become fixated on individual weapon platforms and capabilities, and not the soundness of the strategy for employing these assets. The Ukrainian David ought to stay with his simple-but-effective air-defense sling to keep slaying the Russian Goliath in the skies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>U.S. Air Force Col. Maximilian Bremer leads the Special Programs Division at Air Mobility Command.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Kelly Grieco is a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, an adjunct associate professor of security studies at Georgetown University, and a nonresident fellow at the Brute Krulak Center of the Marine Corps University.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>This commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Defense Department, the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Marine Corps, or Marine Corps University.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ukraine\u2019s battlefield success rests on continuing to deny air superiority to Russia, not achieving air superiority outright, two U.S. issue experts argue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":117666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":17,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,46,11,36,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[4819,4765],"class_list":["post-64774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-europe","category-global","category-newsletters","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"4IIROAU3A5BKVEBFMGEBRUKDR4","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/2023\/07\/12\/ukraines-push-for-f-16s-risks-a-battlefield-advantage-simplicity\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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