{"id":66271,"date":"2023-09-01T16:47:09","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T16:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2023\/09\/01\/is-the-wests-influence-waning-in-south-america\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:47:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:47:40","slug":"is-the-wests-influence-waning-in-south-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2023\/09\/01\/is-the-wests-influence-waning-in-south-america\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the West\u2019s influence waning in South America?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Against a long-standing absence of interstate conflicts, South American armed forces largely focus on domestic operations, including fighting organized crime. However, the region\u2019s defense and security capabilities are undermined by aging equipment amid reduced fiscal space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite having rejected the pleas of the U.S. and its allies to supply ammunition and military equipment to Ukraine in early 2023, major armed forces in the region \u2014 namely Argentina, Brazil and Colombia \u2014 remain significantly tied to the U.S. and European countries through military procurement and cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the increasing economic and political inroads of emerging geopolitical powers<\/a>, especially China, challenge the long-lasting Western influence in the region\u2019s defense sphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Land-based systems<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Although developments to upgrade aging capabilities have taken place over the last year, significant regional operational improvements are expected to materialize in the midterm to long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brazilian Army \u2014 the most capable in South America with the most important developments \u2014 keeps advancing toward the incorporation of a new fleet of six-wheel and eight-wheel drive armored vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The former vehicles are part of the Guarani program<\/a>, which is jointly developed<\/a> with Iveco Defence Vehicles and, in September 2022, reached the 600-vehicle delivery of the long-term target of 1,580 units until 2035. Although it is lower than the 2,044-vehicle initial order, and is reportedly being reconsidered further down to around 900<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the latter type of armored vehicle, in January 2023 the Brazilian Army received the first two Centauro II prototypes for evaluation as part of a 98-vehicle order from the Iveco-Oto Melara Consortium. The delivery of the new fleet will gradually take place until 2038, while the operation of 50-year-old EE-9 Cascavel armored vehicles will be phased out<\/a>. Until the process is completed, a local consortium was awarded the modernization of an initial batch of nine EE-9s and delivered the first prototype<\/a> in July 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Centauro II was offered to Brazil by a consortium made up of Iveco Defence Vehicles and Oto Melara. (CIO)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, the visit of a high-level Brazilian Army delegation to China\u2019s NORINCO \u2014 or the North Industries Group Corp. Ltd. \u2014 factory in June 2023 suggests Brazil\u2019s growing interest in recapitalizing its artillery and air defense capability with Chinese equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other regional developments<\/a> include Argentina\u2019s letter of intent to acquire 156 Brazilian Iveco six-wheel drive Guarani vehicles in January 2023, discarding options for General Dynamics Land Systems\u2019 M1126 Stryker and NORINCO\u2019s VN-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December 2022, Colombia awarded<\/a> the acquisition of General Dynamics Land Systems-Canada\u2019s 55 new LAV III light armored vehicles to replace the current fleet, which includes units with nearly 60 years in operation. The contract<\/a> covers the next six years and comprises manufacturing, delivery and support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chile signed a contract with Turkey\u2019s Aselsan to maintain its more than 40-year-old Leopard 2 A4 tank fleet in July 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maritime priorities<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Besides traditional naval operations<\/a>, South American navies focus on seaborne illegal trafficking \u2014 especially in Colombia. Against the record-high depreciation of the local currency and the need to support domestic industries while increasing anti-narcotic operations, the Colombian Navy awarded state-owned shipbuilder Cotecmar key strategic procurement projects, such as the production<\/a> of the first Colombian-designed OPV 93C offshore patrol ship, which started production in March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also chose Cotecmar, in partnership with Dutch shipbuilder Damen<\/a>, to manufacture the first Colombian-made frigate based on Damen\u2019s Sigma 10514 design in September 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Sigma 10514 frigate was designed by Damon. (Courtesy of Damon)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s capabilities<\/a> are being boosted by the ambitious Prosub program, which in September 2022 delivered the first of four conventionally powered attack submarines, with the second boat expected to be delivered by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, the Argentine Navy continues to be unable to operate any of its two submarines amid a deteriorating economic crisis. Although, reportedly Argentina issued a request for final proposals<\/a> for three new conventionally powered submarines to Germany\u2019s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and France\u2019s Naval Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aircraft fleets<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Major air defense procurement in the region remains active, despite a strained budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December 2022, the Brazilian Air Force incorporated<\/a> the first four of 36 Swedish Saab Gripen E\/F fighter ground-attack aircraft. In June 2023, the service received the sixth Embraer KC-390 medium transport aircraft out of 28 initially planned, but then cut to 19 amid budgetary restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, amid a renegotiation process prompted by budgetary constraints since 2015, Brazil\u2019s Air Force and Navy signed a contract<\/a> to acquire 27 Airbus H125 light transport helicopters in September 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colombia\u2019s plan to update its aging fleet of 22 Kfir fighters<\/a> remains active after the government stalled the purchase of French Rafales<\/a> in December 2022. In March 2023, it announced it was reopening the bid with interests in Saab\u2019s Gripen E\/F, Lockheed Martin\u2019s F-16<\/a> Block 70 and the previously shortlisted Dassault Rafale<\/a>. However, the order will likely go from 24 to 16 jets, given fiscal constraints. As a temporary measure, in January 2023 the Colombian Air Force renewed a maintenance agreement with Israel Aerospace Industries to extend the service lives of its Kfir fleet until 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A Kfir combat aircraft lands at Combat Air Command Base in Puerto Salgar, Colombia, on July 20, 2020. (Raul Arboleda\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A debt arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will likely clear the way for Argentina to acquire 24 fighter jets and replace its obsolescent A-4 Skyhawk fleet with two probable options: the JF-17 Thunder<\/a> jointly made by Pakistan and China, or secondhand Danish F-16s made by the U.S. company Lockheed Martin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the lower cost and flexible financing options provided by the Chinese government for the Thunders, in July 2023 the F-16 became a strong option after the U.S. State Department expressed interest in providing financial and operational assistance to Argentina, and upon Congress\u2019 move to speed up the sale approval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Argentina\u2019s precarious economic situation means modernization efforts will likely be limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Space technology<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

South American space capabilities significantly lag behind other regions, with the partial exception of Brazil and Chile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 2022, the Brazilian Space Agency launched<\/a> into orbit the first Brazilian-made sounding rocket from its Alc\u00e2ntara Launch Center in Maranh\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In June 2023, the Chilean National Satellite System, co-owned by the Chilean Air Force, successfully started the gradual replacement of the FASat-Charlie satellite by launching into orbit the FASat-Delta<\/a>, the first out of 13 new satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, South America\u2019s military capabilities remain limited amid fiscal constraints. Despite successful efforts to boost local procurement, major acquisitions are largely contracted to Western countries. Regional political realignment in an increasingly multipolar global order will likely expand procurement opportunities for non-Western bidders in the midterm to longer term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Juan Pablo Bickel is a research associate with the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, where he focuses on conflict, security and development, particularly in relation to Latin America.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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