{"id":66624,"date":"2024-01-17T19:59:59","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T19:59:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2024\/01\/17\/five-questions-with-lithuanias-national-security-committee-chair\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:01:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:01:44","slug":"five-questions-with-lithuanias-national-security-committee-chair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2024\/01\/17\/five-questions-with-lithuanias-national-security-committee-chair\/","title":{"rendered":"Five questions with Lithuania\u2019s national security committee chair"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 It\u2019s been an early winter of discontent for Ukraine supporters in the nation\u2019s capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited in December to lobby Congress for more military aid. He left without progress on a mammoth national security spending bill, with $61 billion in Ukraine-related aid, which is still frozen.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has run out of money to replace the weapons it sends to Kyiv. Defense officials say that means a pause in further support.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hoping for a thaw \u2014 perhaps appropriately during Washington\u2019s first real snow of the season \u2014 European and Canadian lawmakers who chair their countries\u2019 foreign affairs committees are visiting to continue arguing Ukraine\u2019s case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Laurynas Kas\u010di\u016bnas, chair of the national security and defense committee in Lithuania\u2019s parliament, is part of that delegation, which will meet with think tanks and members of Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He spoke with Defense News about NATO\u2019s investments in its Eastern Flank, Ukraine\u2019s fight and the threat Russia may pose to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This interview was edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How would you describe the state of the <\/b>war in Ukraine<\/b><\/a>?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia did two main things last year. One, they adapted to a wartime economy and a [stronger] defense industry. They can produce<\/a> \u2014 despite the sanctions \u2014 ammunition, artillery, tanks and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, they solved the problem of motivation in the army<\/a>, creating so-called mercenaries \u2014 paying quite a low salary to a very low [social class] of people. For them, this money and the army is a social lift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One option [for Russian President Vladimir Putin] is waiting for [Donald] Trump for a deal. The second option is to devastate Ukraine so much that even the Western community will say: \u201cGo to negotiations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Laurynas Kas\u010di\u016bnas, chairman of Lithuania’s national security committee, spoke with Defense News about the war in Ukraine and the threat Russia poses to Europe (courtesy of the Embassy of the Republic of Lithuania).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Do you anticipate another round of mobilization after Russia\u2019s elections in March?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mobilization after the elections is not a problem. They\u2019ve transformed conscription with this \u201cmercenary\u201d army.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Ukraine, manpower is a big challenge. These guys who were fighting from 2014 on \u2014 the professionals \u2014 many of them are already out, dead or injured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s manpower is still four or five times bigger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How long will it take for Russia to reconstitute its forces to prewar levels?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we consider in planning a real conventional, division-level war: five to seven years. If you imagine some semi-conventional, hybrid [war], they need maybe two to three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The army is one thing, but at the same time you need to be flexible for such scenarios. We need border guards with military standards, we need special police forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are Ukraine\u2019s most pressing needs?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because I\u2019m pushing drone capability in Lithuania, I asked Zelenskyy what his need was annually. He said if you\u2019re talking about small drones, it\u2019s at least 3 million to 5 million, and Ukraine can produce about 1 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I asked what kind of weapons he needs. He said drones, artillery munitions and electronic warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What would you like to see come from the NATO summit in July?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing is the Ukraine question. But another thing for us is the eastern flank [of countries in the alliance]. From the Vilnius summit [last year] to the Washington summit [this year], what kind of achievements do we have? The Russians are building up, despite sanctions, despite the war in Ukraine. So let\u2019s compare what we are doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We did a lot. The forward defense concept, which came back in defense planning, is very important. For us, it was a crucially important decision by Germany to place a brigade for full stationing in Lithuania, which will be done in two to three years. It\u2019s a good thing, but are we fast enough?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Laurynas Kas\u010di\u016bnas sat down in a hotel near the White House to discuss Ukraine, Russia and this summer’s NATO 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