{"id":67542,"date":"2024-03-28T21:00:25","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T21:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2024\/03\/28\/northrop-says-air-force-design-changes-drove-higher-sentinel-icbm-cost\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:59:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:59:57","slug":"northrop-says-air-force-design-changes-drove-higher-sentinel-icbm-cost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/industry\/2024\/03\/28\/northrop-says-air-force-design-changes-drove-higher-sentinel-icbm-cost\/","title":{"rendered":"Northrop says Air Force design changes drove higher Sentinel ICBM cost"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A Northrop Grumman official on Monday attributed the explosive projected cost growth<\/a> of the U.S. Air Force\u2019s next intercontinental ballistic missile<\/a> to the service\u2019s design changes, including to the nuclear missile\u2019s silo and connecting cables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force\u2019s original plan for modernizing its ICBM enterprise included keeping nearly all its existing copper cabling in place to be reused for the upcoming LGM-35A Sentinel. That\u2019s roughly 7,500 miles\u2019 worth of copper cabling, connecting 450 half-century-old Minuteman III ICBM silos scattered through the Great Plains region with launch control centers and other facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the company official, who spoke with reporters on the condition that he be identified only as an official familiar with the Sentinel program, said the Air Force concluded it is necessary to upgrade the copper cables with a higher-performing fiber-optic network. That decision apparently came after the service awarded the engineering and manufacturing development contract to Northrop Grumman<\/a> in 2020, and during the company\u2019s work on the program\u2019s early design phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force also realized that the original designs for Sentinel\u2019s launch facilities \u2014 the massive concrete-encased silos from which the missiles would launch \u2014 would not work and had to be changed, the Northrop official said. Those original concepts were drawn up during the technology maturation and risk-reduction phase as well as the early engineering and manufacturing development step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with hundreds of launch facilities dotting the Great Plains region, often in 1-acre plots, and thousands of miles of cable stretching across farmland and other privately held property that now must be dug up, the cost of these changes swiftly added up, the Northrop official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs we\u2019ve worked through those changes. That\u2019s led to a design that\u2019s different than the one that they [the Air Force] started with,\u201d the official explained. \u201cWhen you multiply that by 450, if every silo is a little bit bigger or has an extra component, that actually drives a lot of cost because of the sheer number of them that are being updated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a statement to Defense News, the Air Force said the Pentagon is still studying what exactly caused the severe cost overruns, which triggered a review process known as a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn accordance with statute, [the Office of the Secretary of Defense] will determine what factors caused the cost growth that led to a critical breach via the Nunn-McCurdy process, which is currently underway,\u201d an Air Force spokesperson said. \u201cEarly estimates indicate that a large portion of the Sentinel program\u2019s cost growth is in the command and launch segment, which is the most complex segment of the Sentinel program.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Unknown unknowns\u2019 on $96B program<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Sentinel is a massive program to replace the Air Force\u2019s aging LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBMs, which now make up the land-based portion of the U.S. military\u2019s nuclear triad. In 2020, Northrop Grumman received a $13.3 billion cost-plus-incentive-fee contract for Sentinel\u2019s engineering and manufacturing development phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The program was expected to run about $96 billion, with the total per-unit cost amounting to $118 million when its most recent cost, schedule and performance goals were set in 2020. But the price tag has skyrocketed at least 37%, and the per-unit cost is now about $162 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a congressional hearing this month, Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., pegged Sentinel\u2019s current cost at more than $130 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That triggered the Nunn-McCurdy breach, and the Pentagon is now reviewing Sentinel to figure out how to get it back on track as well as where to find funds to keep it going. Top Air Force officials have publicly said that with Minuteman III well past its originally expected life span, the service has no choice but to replace it with a new, more reliable model \u2014 and will find money to pay for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sentinel, which was originally supposed to reach initial operational capability in 2029, is now expected to fall two years behind schedule. The nuclear missile\u2019s first flight test, which had been expected to take place in fiscal 2024, is now likely to come in February 2026, according to the Air Force\u2019s budget documents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force said in an email to Defense News that the Sentinel\u2019s first flight was pushed back due to longer lead times for components in its guidance computer. But the delayed flight test is not a factor in the program\u2019s Nunn-McCurdy breach, the service said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a March hearing held by the House Armed Services Committee\u2019s sea power and projection forces panel, Garamendi voiced his displeasure to Air Force officials over the Sentinel\u2019s cost overruns, as well as the service\u2019s inability to explain potential \u201ctrade-offs\u201d to keep the program alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Garamendi questioned the need for the United States to spend vast sums of money on Sentinel, arguing the belief that the nation must maintain a triad of nuclear weapons has become a \u201creligious issue, having very little to do with the world in which we\u2019re now living.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Northrop Grumman official told reporters Monday that the company\u2019s work on Sentinel continues, despite the Nunn-McCurdy breach and ensuing review process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have a pause on our EMD [engineering and manufacturing development] work,\u201d the official said. \u201cWe\u2019re continuing to make progress on developing the missile and iterating the designs for all the facilities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Airmen connect the forward shroud to the aft shroud of the reentry system for the Minuteman III weapon at a launch facility in Colorado on Feb. 12, 2024. (Senior Airman Sarah Post\/U.S. Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In a discussion last fall, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall<\/a> said given it\u2019s been so long since the service created an ICBM, early cost estimates for Sentinel were based on \u201ca huge uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are unknown unknowns that are surfacing, that are affecting the program,\u201d Kendall said during a November 2023 event with Center for a New American Security think tank. Kendall also said the Sentinel program was \u201cstruggling.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Northrop Grumman official highlighted such comments \u2014 including Kendall\u2019s about the uncertainty that went into the program\u2019s cost estimates \u2014 and said some estimates that went into the 2020 baseline review turned out to be incorrect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mock-up silo<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Northrop also said the company\u2019s effort to game out how a conversion process might work also showed problems with the original plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before it received the Sentinel contract in September 2020, the firm started building a full-scale mock-up of a Minuteman III silo in Promontory, Utah, which it completed in spring 2021. The project was a major undertaking, and on Northrop Grumman\u2019s dime. But the company saw it as a worthwhile investment in its bid to win the lucrative Ground Based Strategic Deterrent contract, as the program was then known.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Northrop didn\u2019t have direct access to the Minuteman III silos \u2014 and likely won\u2019t until the government hands them over for conversion into Sentinel silos \u2014 since the missiles must remain ready for launch at all times. And so the company considered its construction project the best way to understand how the massive retrofitting process might work \u2014 and to find where the biggest risks might lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The company\u2019s team, alongside the Air Force, pored through the nonoperational mock-up and started to lay out components akin to what Sentinel would require. But as they did so, the Northrop official said, the group found some of the original conversion plans weren\u2019t going to work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other design processes, including computer-aided design work, also helped the Sentinel team map out how much square footage various configurations would take up. In the process, some of the unknown factors that led to the original shaky estimates were cleared up. Still, it became clearer that the costs would be much higher than originally believed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey learned, along with us, things that needed to be potentially different or changed from the design,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five programs in one<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In January, top Air Force official Kristyn Jones compared the Sentinel project to five major acquisition programs rolled into one. But the nuclear missile itself \u201cis not an area of concern,\u201d said Jones, who is performing the duties of undersecretary of the Air Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Northrop official said the Sentinel missile will not just be a new iteration of the Minuteman series of ICBMs \u2014 \u201cit\u2019s not a Minuteman IV,\u201d the official said \u2014 but a brand-new weapon top to bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its solid-rocket motors will be made of composite materials instead of the steel used on the Minuteman III, he explained, and it will have a more advanced guidance system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its design also includes modular components that allow the Air Force and Northrop Grumman to more easily add new technology as it becomes available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And airmen are expected to be able to more easily maintain the Sentinel than its predecessor, with key components accessible without the need to delve too deeply into the missile and bring along a massive security detail while it is opened up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Maintenance personnel with the 321st Strategic Missile Wing guide the reentry system for an LGM-30 Minuteman III missile onto a missile guidance set in 1990. (U.S. Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sentinel will be slightly larger and lighter than the Minuteman III, which will allow it to carry more propellant and payload, he said. And it is being designed to last until at least 2075 \u2014 far longer than the decade Minuteman III was originally supposed to last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The infrastructure for Sentinel \u2014 including the silos themselves, the launch control centers where airmen control the ICBMs, and supporting infrastructure \u2014 will also be refurbished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That portion \u2014 which Jones called \u201cessentially a civil works program\u201d \u2014 is especially challenging, particularly with issues such as inflation, the supply chain and labor force shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The service and Northrop Grumman plan to reuse the existing Minuteman III silos as much as possible. But that will require a great deal of new construction and equipment updates to ensure the Sentinel silos can keep operating through disruptions such as power outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Old computers in launch centers \u2014 some of them 1980s-era terminals with green screens \u2014 will receive updates with modern equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But not all Minuteman III silos were built in the same configuration, the Northrop official said, which will further complicate their conversions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the nation\u2019s roughly 400 Minuteman IIIs spread out across nearly 32,000 square miles in Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado and Nebraska, that makes the Sentinel program a massive real estate project, requiring the government to negotiate easements and, in some cases, property purchases with numerous landowners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of that adds up to \u201cone of the most large, complex programs I\u2019ve ever seen,\u201d Kendall said of Sentinel in November 2023. \u201cIt\u2019s probably the biggest thing, in some ways, that the Air Force has ever taken on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s also another factor at play: What happens if the Air Force and Northrop Grumman look deeper within the existing Minuteman III silos and find they\u2019re in worse shape than expected?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The condition of the silos is a potentially high-risk area for the program, the Northrop official acknowledged, but the program still expects to be able to reuse existing ones. A \u201chandful\u201d of LiDAR \u2014 or light detection and ranging \u2014 scans of current ICBM sites already took place, he said, and there have been reviews of silos decommissioned in the 2000s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But deeper, destructive testing \u2014 \u201cbreaking apart the concrete to see what\u2019s behind it and what the conditions are\u201d \u2014 has not occurred on existing silos, the official said, since they have to remain operational.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minuteman III silos have concrete liners as well as mechanical launch tubes and missile suspension systems that hold the current ICBMs. The tubes and suspension systems will be replaced, the official said, and the concrete liners underneath will undergo inspection to determine if repairs need done and what is reusable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government has contingency plans if the silos\u2019 foundations prove to be seriously cracked or damaged, the official said. That could include remediation work such as patching cracks or replacing portions of the concrete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a site is too far gone to fix, however, drilling may have to take place for an entirely new silo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s currently no plan to dig new holes,\u201d the official said. \u201cBut given the site conditions of the land, [there is] certainly the potential that when they get to investigating more of the silos, they may find that [reusing] some of them might not be possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though the Nunn-McCurdy review process is still underway, the Northrop official said the company is talking to the Air Force about ways to bring down costs. One idea under discussion, he noted, is potentially changing the way mechanical rooms are constructed to build them in a more modular way, which could lower expenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But no matter how difficult or expensive Sentinel becomes, or what trade-offs are made to pay for it, the Air Force is adamant it must happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, the service\u2019s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said at the January appearance alongside Jones that extending the Minuteman III missile significantly longer is \u201cnot a viable option.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe will find the money,\u201d Moore said. \u201cSentinel is going to be funded. We\u2019ll make the trades to make that happen.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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