{"id":67862,"date":"2024-06-27T17:29:32","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T17:29:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2024\/06\/27\/next-gen-homeland-defense-interceptor-plans-are-risky-watchdog-says\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:10:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:10:04","slug":"next-gen-homeland-defense-interceptor-plans-are-risky-watchdog-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2024\/06\/27\/next-gen-homeland-defense-interceptor-plans-are-risky-watchdog-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Next-gen homeland defense interceptor plans are risky, watchdog says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Government Accountability Office said the Missile Defense Agency<\/a>\u2019s development plan for its next-generation interceptor for homeland defense<\/a> carries both schedule and funding risk, according to a June 26 report from the watchdog.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MDA is developing the Next-Generation Interceptor after canceling a previous effort to field a redesigned kill vehicle<\/a> in August 2019 for the ground-based interceptors <\/a>which make up the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system (GMD) designed to protect the U.S. homeland from intercontinental ballistic missiles from Iran and North Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MDA wants to field NGI by 2028,<\/a> but Congress is pushing for an earlier deadline and industry teams have said they could deliver initial interceptors by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027, one year ahead of schedule<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe NGI program is on track to start product development in 2024 but the program is planning to overlap design and production activities to accelerate flight testing,\u201d the GAO report states. \u201cAny major design issues could disrupt this strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GAO found NGI\u2019s schedule to be \u201calready optimistic when compared to development timeframes of similar weapon systems,\u201d and added that the agency is also struggling to meet testing goals across the board, which could further derail the ambitious schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The program\u2019s cost has also gone up by hundreds of millions of dollars in the last year, the GAO found. Even so, it has yet to rise above planned funding levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the GAO said, \u201cMDA officials expect further increases due to supply chain issues and rising material costs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On time<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

MDA is working to field NGI by 2028 as threats grow rapidly in complexity and capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the NGI program is meeting schedule goals now, GAO showed skepticism that NGI would maintain its timeline. Historically, the office said, comparable technology development has taken longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agency is buying long lead materials for the interceptors, particularly for ones to be used in upcoming flight tests, but GAO notes NGI designs \u201care not yet mature, and any changes could necessitate rework on interceptors currently in early production.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agency was carrying two teams through a competitive design phase<\/a>. Lockheed Martin and its Aerojet Rocketdyne partner completed the preliminary design review for its NGI in September 2023 and a Northrop and RTX team passed through the same design review at the end of January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But nearly a year prior to a deadline for two competing teams to reach a critical design review phase, MDA chose Lockheed Martin in April <\/a>to move forward rather than continue with both teams into the next phase of technology development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the GAO report, both NGI contractors \u201cmade progress developing critical technologies\u201d and MDA plans to assess NGI\u2019s critical technology maturation status prior to a product development decision expected in the third quarter of FY24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NGI\u2019s schedule has flight tests beginning roughly six years after MDA awarded the development contracts. GAO noted that a 2019 study by a federally funded research and development center found \u201ckill vehicles, satellites and strategic systems\u201d take roughly seven years from contract award to first flight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flight test schedules will have an impact, the GAO said, and MDA has not been able to stay on track even for GMD testing. NGI production, the GAO notes, is contingent on completing three intercept flight tests within two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGMD program has never successfully executed more than two intercept flight tests within a span of 2 years since the program started testing operationally configured GMD interceptors in 2006,\u201d the report states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNGI might face similar challenges, in part, because DOD plans for NGI flight testing to increase in difficulty with each successive test,\u201d it adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On budget<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The GAO found the NGI program\u2019s development cost has already increased in its \u201cearly stages.\u201d The Pentagon has anticipated the program cost to be \u201ca few billion dollars higher\u201d<\/a> than MDA\u2019s early estimates, which is in line with the Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) office\u2019s independent cost assessment in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNGI\u2019s costs remain within the program\u2019s current funding level, but the cost growth accumulated in the first 3 years of the program has reduced the government\u2019s funding margin as a result of accelerated schedules,\u201d GAO states. Moreover, GAO said typically the most significant cost growth happens later in development and production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rising cost, according to the office, is mostly due to contractors taking steps to mitigate schedule risk as well as growing material costs \u201cwhich directly related to supply chain issues and were further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While MDA has traded cost for schedule in the first phases of the program, the agency did acknowledge that will not be \u201csustainable going forward,\u201d the GAO notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical risk<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, the Pentagon\u2019s research and engineering branch found technical risk in the NGI program. MDA \u201cdisagreed\u201d with a large portion of that assessment and GAO said the agency has \u201ctaken limited steps to address the identified risks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GAO reported MDA has completed all required survivability testing on component-level parts, but the agency \u201cis not fully addressing risks associated with NGI\u2019s threat requirements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And MDA is not \u201cfully developing\u201d models and simulation that it needs to verify technology maturity and performance, the report states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GAO found other DOD components like GMD\u2019s Technical Direction Agent, U.S. Northern Command, MDS Operational Test Agency and the DoD\u2019s director of operational test and evaluation were concerned about the lack of modeling and simulation capabilities for the program and the agency\u2019s ability to get the needed capabilities developed in time for ground testing expected in FY26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCAPE officials told us in February 2024 that foregoing adequate simulation capabilities directly amplifies risks to the program because MDA will be relying on these same models and simulations for verification activities in lieu of more extensive flight testing,\u201d the report states. \u201cCAPE officials added that insufficient modeling and simulation would potentially leave some of the most critical questions regarding NGI\u2019s performance unanswered.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But MDA told GAO that it would ensure \u201cNGI-specific requirements for the MDS-level modeling and simulation framework are identified, planned for, and implemented,\u201d according to the report. This includes aligning development of an all-digital MDS-level simulator with the program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDOT&E officials told us this new digital simulator will be essential for conducting NGI operational assessments because it will provide significantly greater simulations capabilities, once developed,\u201d the GAO states.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a report, the Government Accountability Office said there are technical, schedule and cost risks associated with the MDA’s next-gen interceptor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":118926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":19,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"8":{"categories":["watchdogs","management","budget","home","federal-oversight"],"primary_category":"watchdogs"}}},"categories":[160,36,19],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3330],"class_list":["post-67862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-pentagon"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"3FL3GA5E2RBVRJBFP2CG4QFZJU","arc_canonical_url":"\/pentagon\/2024\/06\/27\/next-gen-homeland-defense-interceptor-plans-are-risky-watchdog-says\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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