{"id":68471,"date":"2024-07-31T19:03:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T19:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2024\/07\/31\/the-us-election-and-nato-whats-at-stake\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:01:49","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:01:49","slug":"the-us-election-and-nato-whats-at-stake","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2024\/07\/31\/the-us-election-and-nato-whats-at-stake\/","title":{"rendered":"The US election and NATO: What\u2019s at stake"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Several developments in the U.S. presidential race, including former President Donald Trump\u2019s pick of JD Vance as vice president earlier this month, have left European NATO member countries worried as they contemplate the possibility of the U.S. reducing its leadership role in the treaty organization \u2014 or pulling out altogether \u2014 analysts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">American presidents from both parties have long criticized a lack of burden sharing within NATO, pointing to many countries not matching the 2% of GDP defense spending commitment. With the upcoming U.S. presidential election and Trump and Vance\u2019s criticisms of the alliance, NATO\u2019s future is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/nato-is-on-the-ballot-in-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\">effectively on the ballot<\/a>, some foreign policy experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump has frequently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/01\/14\/us\/politics\/nato-president-trump.html\" target=\"_blank\">criticized NATO countries<\/a> for placing a financial burden on the U.S., warning that if they do not increase their contributions, he might consider <a href=\"https:\/\/www.donaldjtrump.com\/news\/9172bde9-a4e3-4024-846f-8f7fd7d06e9f\" target=\"_blank\">reducing America\u2019s involvement in the alliance<\/a> or withdrawing completely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNATO has to treat the U.S. fairly, because if it\u2019s not for the United States, NATO literally doesn\u2019t even exist,\u201d Trump said in a March <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/donald-trump-says-he-wont-quit-nato-if-europe-pays-its-way\/\">interview<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. spent 3.49% of its GDP on defense in 2023, while 19 of 32 NATO countries failed to reach the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2024\/07\/09\/baltic-state-ministers-urge-fellow-nato-members-to-boost-defense-spend\/\" target=\"_blank\">2% commitment<\/a>. This year, 23 out of 32 countries are expected to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/topics_67655.htm\" target=\"_blank\">meet or exceed<\/a> the defense-spending target, according to NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2024\/01\/19\/nato-holds-its-biggest-exercises-in-decades-involving-90k-personnel\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24018531484732.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">NATO holds its biggest exercises in decades, involving 90K personnel<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Dubbed &quot;Steadfast Defender 24,&quot; the drill come as Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine bogs down.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Embracing Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d foreign policy platform, <a href=\"https:\/\/washingtonmonthly.com\/2024\/07\/17\/with-vance-selection-trump-doubles-down-on-america-first\/\" target=\"_blank\">Trump<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcwashington.com\/news\/national-international\/rnc-convention-trump-vance-day-3-live-updates\/3666815\/\" target=\"_blank\">Vance<\/a> favor isolationism. This raises the question: What does this mean for NATO member countries in need of American assistance, especially Ukraine and neighboring countries around Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if Vice President Kamala Harris \u2014 the anticipated Democratic presidential nominee \u2014 wins the election in November, NATO may still face challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><b>A Trump and Vance ticket<\/b><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Klaus Larres, a history professor at the University of North Carolina and a fellow at the Wilson Center, noted that not all campaign rhetoric translates into actions once in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump is more skeptical of NATO than President Joe Biden\u2019s administration, but since more countries are meeting the defense spending commitment, that grievance may diminish, Larres said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHe probably will not repeat again that he wants to leave NATO, but he probably will make the United States less active in NATO and less prominent and less being the clear leader of NATO,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Larres said Vance\u2019s inexperience in foreign policy will require a steep learning curve, which could prompt him to reconsider his instinctive isolationism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHe is an isolationist, and he wants to withdraw from Ukraine,\u201d Larres said. \u201cHe doesn\u2019t seem to see how detrimental that also would be for the United States and not just for the Europeans or for Ukraine, that it would have really devastating effects on America\u2019s role in the world. He doesn\u2019t seem to understand that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With 40% of global trade involving the U.S. and Europe, a serious strain in relations would harm America not only in security but also in trade and economic policy, Larres said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162188791.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-119130\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162188791.jpg.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162188791.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162188791.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><b>A Harris ticket<\/b><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harris is expected to be the Democratic presidential nominee, following Biden\u2019s announcement that he won\u2019t seek reelection. Harris, who as of this writing has not announced a vice presidential candidate, will face a formal nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During his presidency, Biden expanded and defended NATO while bringing the Atlantic allies closer together, Larres said. Foreign policy experts expect Harris to continue support for NATO and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast to the Republican ticket, Harris has indicated she would not stray from NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI firmly believe our commitment to build and sustain alliances has helped America become the most powerful and prosperous country in the world \u2014 alliances that have prevented wars, defended freedom and maintained stability from Europe to the Indo-Pacific,\u201d Harris said at the Munich Security Conference in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTo put all of that at risk would be foolish,\u201d Harris said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a February rally, Trump said he would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/10\/politics\/trump-russia-nato\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">encourage<\/a> Russia to do \u201cwhatever the hell they want\u201d to any NATO country that doesn\u2019t meet the defense spending commitment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response, Harris criticized Trump\u2019s remarks and reaffirmed her opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162559863.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-119132\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162559863.jpg.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162559863.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2162559863.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at West Allis Central High School on July 23 in West Allis, Wisconsin. (Photo by Jim Vondruska\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNo previous U.S. president, regardless of party, has bowed down to a Russian dictator before,\u201d Harris said in an <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/harris-foreign-policy-experience-stands\/story?id=112151509\" target=\"_blank\">interview<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the days leading up to <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-ukraine-kamala-harris-diplomacy-europe-vladimir-putin-26cbe7d9d0f05124de91c15d267ae2b6\" target=\"_blank\">Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/a> in 2022, Harris urged NATO countries to unite and prepare sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During her Munich speech, Harris warned against American isolationism, stating abandoning Ukraine or NATO allies would repeat historical mistakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf we stand by while an aggressor invades its neighbor with impunity, they will keep going,\u201d she said, noting Putin\u2019s actions could threaten all of Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf we fail to impose severe consequences on Russia, other authoritarians across the globe would be emboldened, because you see, they will be watching \u2014 they are watching and drawing lessons.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><b>The \u2018bedrock\u2019 of NATO<\/b><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Foreign policy experts warned diminishing America\u2019s involvement in NATO could signal to adversaries abroad they can take advantage of U.S. allies, as America\u2019s military strength is a key deterrent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elizabeth Saunders, a professor of political science at Columbia University and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the U.S. military is the \u201cbedrock\u201d of NATO, and the U.S. nuclear program is still a key part of how NATO deters adversaries, like Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s very clear that this dance that NATO countries and Russia are doing on the sort of outer edges of this conflict are designed to prevent direct hostilities between any NATO country and Russia, and that\u2019s why Ukraine rightly believes that its security is tied to whether or not because it can get into NATO,\u201d Saunders said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On his campaign website, Trump argued \u201cwe have to finish the process we began under my Administration of fundamentally reevaluating NATO\u2019s purpose and NATO\u2019s mission,\u201d claiming Russia is not the greatest threat to the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou don\u2019t have to believe that Russia is the greatest threat to the U.S. to think that it is a threat to U.S. interests,\u201d Saunders said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hans Binnendijk, a fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and an adjunct political scientist at the RAND Corporation, said the most acute risk to the U.S. is Russia because the war in Ukraine has the potential for escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo, if the alliance is significantly weakened, [Putin] may feel that he can take advantage of that and he goes into the Baltic states, for example, which would be very dangerous,\u201d Binnendijk said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5866\" height=\"3911\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-118930\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg 5866w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/APTOPIX_NATO_Summit_94385.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5866px) 100vw, 5866px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">NATO heads of state and government gathered on the 75th anniversary of NATO&#8217;s creation in Washington, D.C., on July 9. (AP Photo\/Evan Vucci)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because NATO relies heavily on the U.S. for nuclear deterrence, undermining the alliance would weaken its effectiveness, Binnendijk said. As he sees it, the most immediate risk of a Trump and Vance win is Congress failing to agree on future aid for Ukraine. He noted delays in past aid bills have led to shortages of air defense and artillery munitions for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf the U.S. just decides to stop aid to Ukraine, Europe can pick up some of it, but certainly not all of it, and it would probably force Ukraine into a very unfavorable situation where they might have to cut a really bad deal with Putin that would in turn do a lot of damage internally to the alliance,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if Trump doesn\u2019t formally withdraw the U.S. from NATO, he could still reduce America\u2019s involvement in ways that undermine the alliance and leave other member countries more vulnerable, Saunders said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, Trump could refuse to appoint an ambassador to NATO or withdraw U.S. troops from allied countries, Saunders said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut if the fundamentals, if the material and the personnel and the capabilities that you need come from the U.S., then if you don\u2019t have access to those, then you don\u2019t really have NATO in its current form,\u201d Saunders said. \u201cYou have something else that might still be called NATO.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The upcoming U.S. presidential election could transform the alliance and America&#8217;s role in it, analysts say.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":119129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":46,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["your-military","news"],"primary_category":"your-military"},"4":{"categories":["your-air-force","news"],"primary_category":"your-air-force"},"5":{"categories":["your-army","news"],"primary_category":"your-army"},"6":{"categories":["your-marine-corps","news"],"primary_category":"your-marine-corps"},"7":{"categories":["your-navy","news"],"primary_category":"your-navy"}}},"categories":[44,8,46,11,33,36],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3505],"class_list":["post-68471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-budget","category-congress","category-europe","category-global","category-home","category-newsletters"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"SGWBW6EODJDZTIRJCJBINPG2OE","arc_canonical_url":"\/global\/europe\/2024\/07\/31\/the-us-election-and-nato-whats-at-stake\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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