{"id":68544,"date":"2024-05-07T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T09:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2024\/05\/07\/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T14:09:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T14:09:04","slug":"how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2024\/05\/07\/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan\/","title":{"rendered":"How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This is the first story of a two-part series. The second story is <\/i>available here<\/i><\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a summit near San Francisco in November, the leaders of America and China turned to the biggest threat to their relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The topic was Taiwan, which China\u2019s government considers part of its rightful territory and has threatened to take by force. When it came up, according to an American official who later spoke to the press, Chinese leader Xi Jinping grew exasperated \u2014 not at the risk of war, but at the timeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cXi basically said: \u2018Look, I hear all these reports in the United States [of] how we\u2019re planning for military action in 2027 or 2035,\u2019 \u201d the official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c \u2018There are no such plans,\u2019 \u201d Xi said in the official\u2019s telling. \u201c \u2018No one has talked to me about this.\u2019 \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That first year, 2027, is a fixation in Washington. It has impacted the debate over China policy \u2014 a shift from the long term to the short term. It\u2019s also helped steer billions of dollars toward U.S. forces in the Pacific. And in the last several years, it\u2019s been a question mark hanging over the Biden administration\u2019s approach to the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to U.S. intelligence, Xi has told the Chinese military it needs to be ready to invade Taiwan by that year. But ready to invade is different than will invade; American officials stress the year isn\u2019t a deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defense News spoke to sources in Congress, the Pentagon and Washington-based think tanks to understand what may be the most important, most misunderstood year in Sino-U.S. relations. The message was that 2027 has exposed a rift in Washington\u2019s China strategy. The U.S. is more focused on the country it calls its \u201cpacing challenge,\u201d but experts disagree on whether it\u2019s running a sprint or a marathon \u2014 and if it can prepare for both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China \u201cwill not renounce the use of force as a possibility\u201d around Taiwan, said David Finkelstein, who studies the Chinese military at the Center for Naval Analyses. \u201cSo the military option hangs over the Taiwan Strait like Damocles\u2019 sword<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Davidson window<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In the years leading up to 2021, Sino-U.S. relations had soured. Washington had become more confrontational during Donald Trump\u2019s presidency, in large part as a response to Beijing\u2019s own aggression. The People\u2019s Liberation Army was \u2014 and still is \u2014 bulking up quickly<\/a>, with weapons, reforms and exercises that could enable an invasion of Taiwan. Lawmakers concerned the U.S. was falling behind had just created the Pacific Deterrence Initiative<\/a>, an effort to rush more money to military leaders in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that backdrop, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, began his questioning at a 2021 hearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe common theme I hear with regard to China\u2019s actions under Xi Jinping\u2019s leadership is alarm,\u201d Sullivan said, citing concerns over Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China\u2019s strong-arming of U.S. allies like Australia and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sullivan then asked the sole witness that day \u2014 Adm. Phil Davidson, the retiring head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command \u2014 whether that changed the odds of a conflict around Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe threat is manifest during this decade,\u201d Davidson said at the end of his answer, \u201cin fact, in the next six years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Adm. Phil Davidson, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command at the time, tours a memorial on Sept. 12, 2019, while visiting with Philippine military members. (MC1 Robin W. Peak\/U.S. Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s rare to find a true before-and-after moment on an issue as complex as Sino-U.S. relations. This, said several experts, was one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt set off these warning alarms that broke outside the niche community and into the broader policy conversation in D.C.,\u201d said a Republican congressional aide, granted anonymity because the individual was not authorized to talk to the press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The concern it generated earned a nickname: the \u201cDavidson window,\u201d<\/a> shorthand for the near-term threat of an attack on Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that changed how Congress spent money. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative<\/a> doesn\u2019t have its own budget, but in the last few years the U.S. has spent more on its forces in the region. Indo-Pacific Command sends Congress a yearly list of priorities, including what doesn\u2019t make the Pentagon\u2019s budget request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest wish list has called for $26.5 billion in spending. And while $11 billion didn\u2019t make the cut in the Pentagon\u2019s fiscal 2025 budget request, that means about $15 billion did, with the chance lawmakers may add more in the next spending bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Congress also gave the Pentagon $1 billion in annual authority to send Taiwan weapons. The recently passed national security supplemental includes almost $2 billion to replace whatever the Pentagon sends, along with $2 billion more in financing to purchase American equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou can draw a direct line between Adm. Davidson\u2019s comments and the ability to get something like the foreign military financing for Taiwan through,\u201d the congressional staffer said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suddenly, in a considerable number of hearings, members of Congress were asking military leaders about their windows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the start of the summer<\/a>, the chief of naval operations and the commandant of the Marine Corps said they shared Davidson\u2019s concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gen. Mark Milley, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a later hearing that Davidson\u2019s comments were based on a speech from Xi, calling on China\u2019s military to \u201cdevelop capabilities to seize Taiwan and move it from 2035 to 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. officials haven\u2019t shared the text of that speech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018I hope I am wrong\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

This became the standard line across the administration \u2014 affirmed by Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPresident Xi has instructed the PLA [People\u2019s Liberation Army], the Chinese military leadership to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan. But that doesn\u2019t mean that he\u2019s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,\u201d Burns said during a TV interview in February 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Amphibious assault vehicles of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army move in formation at sea during a live-fire training exercise held in 2023. (Xie Wenjian\/Chinese Defense Ministry)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And as the hearing with Milley showed<\/a>, that distinction is easy to miss. Then-Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., argued with the general over whether other witnesses had said China would invade by 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milley said no, but added a caveat: \u201cIntent is something that can change quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The back-and-forth showed two factors that have defined the 2027 debate ever since: For one, it\u2019s hard to keep the year from looking like a timeline; and second, even though ability and intent are different, they\u2019re still related.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first issue has been clear in the three years since Davidson testified. More officials were pressed to offer their own assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fall 2022, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China wants to unify with Taiwan on a \u201cmuch faster timeline\u201d than the U.S. expected.<\/a> Then-Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday soon after said his service needed a \u201cfight tonight\u201d approach to the region.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then in early 2023, a memo from Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, leaked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI hope I am wrong,\u201d it read.<\/a> \u201cMy gut tells me we will fight [China] in 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After this last case, the Pentagon intervened. Officials began repeating a new talking point: Conflict with China is \u201cneither imminent nor inevitable.\u201d They\u2019ve stuck to that assessment ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But by then, said a senior defense official, granted anonymity to speak freely, the concerns around 2027 had spread widely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People around Washington would call the official\u2019s office to ask if China would invade that year and whether the U.S. is ready. Since then, the official said, the misconception has become less common.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not like Xi Jinping has a calendar up in his office with a date in 2027 marked \u2018invade Taiwan,\u2019 \u201d the official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, many of the experts who spoke with Defense News said it\u2019s unlikely any Chinese leader would set a deadline. Chinese law doesn\u2019t have timelines for an attack on Taiwan; it has conditions, particularly an attempt by the island to declare independence<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Xi hasn\u2019t scrapped China\u2019s policy <\/a>toward the island, which calls for unification without war. Some leading China analysts don\u2019t think invading the island is a legacy issue for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cXi is a politician,\u201d said Toshi Yoshihara, who studies the Chinese military at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments think tank. \u201cAll politicians want options, so the last thing you want is to be tied to a deadline.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Seed corn\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The Pentagon doesn\u2019t dismiss 2027 altogether. That\u2019s because it\u2019s a real goal for China\u2019s military \u2014 just a nuanced one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s government has set a series of year-based goals throughout this century, almost like mile times a runner wants to hit while training to win a race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most important one is 2049, which is 100 years after the founding of the People\u2019s Republic of China. By then, China\u2019s leaders want to reach \u201cnational rejuvenation\u201d \u2014 or as they see it, again becoming the world\u2019s most powerful country. A core part of that goal is unification with Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Members
Members of the media look at the Taiwanese developed large UAV Teng Yun, which resembles the American MQ-9 Reaper and can stay aloft for up to 24 hours, at the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology in Taichung in central Taiwan on Nov. 15, 2022. (Walid Berrazeg\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

China has also set short- and medium-term markers. The earlier one is 2027, the 100th anniversary of the People\u2019s Liberation Army. It was added to China\u2019s calendar in 2020. The midterm one is 2035.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a yardstick,\u201d said Chad Sbragia, a researcher at the Institute for Defense Analyses and former head of the Pentagon\u2019s China policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The logic isn\u2019t so different from how the U.S. works. Take an initiative like Replicator, for example. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks has pledged to field thousands of drones by August 2025, which forces the Pentagon to move faster and offers a chance for accountability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s military goals aren\u2019t that specific. Instead, they\u2019re captured in somewhat vague phrases repeated by Chinese officials. By 2035, the modernization of its armed forces should be \u201cbasically complete.\u201d<\/a> By 2049, it wants to have a \u201cworld-class\u201d military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The official said it\u2019s not totally clear \u2014 to both the American and Chinese governments \u2014 what those phrases mean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The goals for 2027 are more detailed, though hard to translate from the original Chinese. Here\u2019s how it\u2019s described in the Pentagon\u2019s 2023 report on China\u2019s military strength:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2018Accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization,\u2019 while boosting the speed of modernization in military theories, organizations, personnel, and weapons and equipment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aims are simpler than they sound, the defense official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Two Taiwanese Kuang Hua VI-class missile boats maneuver at sea during a military drill on Jan. 31, 2024. (Annabelle Chih\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The first half focuses on the military\u2019s equipment, its ability to gather data, and its ability to communicate or jam its enemies. The second part refers to doctrine \u2014 or the ability for all the different parts of the People\u2019s Liberation Army to fight together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the main areas where China thinks its military must improve if the nation is to surpass its rivals, most of all the United States. Others include corruption and the long time since China last fought a war, which means its leaders have less data on how their forces could perform today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These goals all matter for a potential fight with Taiwan, though the official stressed that any conflict is still just that \u2014 potential. China\u2019s government would prefer to annex the island without a war, and may think a stronger military could force Taiwan into negotiations<\/a>. The defense official said it\u2019s difficult to judge whether China is on pace to reach its goals, which are more difficult to measure than simply a weapons inventory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe amount of military equipment they\u2019re producing is eye-watering,\u201d Sbragia said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response, some people, like U.S. military leaders in the Pacific and hawkish lawmakers, say America needs to surge money to its forces in the region. American law doesn\u2019t require the nation to defend Taiwan, but U.S. President Joe Biden has said several times that it would.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others, such as officials in the Biden administration, argue the U.S. can\u2019t fixate on a threat this decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t really get to choose one or the other,\u201d the defense official said. \u201cWe don\u2019t get to say we\u2019re going to pour all of our resources into being ready right now and shortchange what we think we need to invest in for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not everyone agrees<\/a> the U.S. can do both. Even those that do \u2014 such as former Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who until recently led the House\u2019s committee focused on competition with China \u2014 argue the U.S. should be spending much more on the effort<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But China will likely be a long-term competitor \u2014 as illustrated by its goals, which stretch decades into the future. One of the benefits of the 2027 debate in Washington, multiple China experts told Defense News, is that it\u2019s made America\u2019s government take that competition more seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they also gave a warning: America shouldn\u2019t think there\u2019s zero chance of conflict before that year, and if nothing happens after that date, it shouldn\u2019t get complacent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That means spending the money it can on the short-term threat while also upgrading U.S. forces for the long term, said Zack Cooper, who studies U.S.-China strategic competition at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t want to be eating our seed corn,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the first story of a two-part series. The second story is <\/i>available here<\/i><\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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