{"id":69230,"date":"2024-07-02T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2024\/07\/02\/how-us-strike-curbs-for-ukraine-morphed-from-caveats-to-common-sense\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:11:26","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:11:26","slug":"how-us-strike-curbs-for-ukraine-morphed-from-caveats-to-common-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/the-americas\/2024\/07\/02\/how-us-strike-curbs-for-ukraine-morphed-from-caveats-to-common-sense\/","title":{"rendered":"How US strike curbs for Ukraine morphed from caveats to \u2018common sense\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

BRUSSELS \u2014 In late May, the Biden administration announced a major policy change: Washington would now let Ukrainian forces fire American-provided weapons into Russia \u2014 though only around one region in the northeast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This had long been a bright red line in the administration\u2019s support for Kyiv, fearing an expanded war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It took only a few days for Ukraine to say it wasn\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIs that sufficient? No,\u201d said President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at a news conference in Singapore hours after meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The comment was a microcosm of a much longer-term challenge for Washington. In an effort to avoid escalation, the administration has withheld certain weapons requested by Ukraine, only to later change course. The result is an ever-shifting policy that often leaves Kyiv dissatisfied \u2014 why accept one change to the rules when pushing for another could loosen them more?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest and perhaps most significant example of this situation has been cross-border strikes. The limited authority the White House gave Ukraine to fire into Russia is already expanding. And if this continues, analysts say, it may make a real impact in the fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt could really change the war,\u201d said George Barros, who leads the Russia and geospatial intelligence teams at the Institute for the Study of War, a public policy research outfit<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two weeks after Zelenskyy\u2019s comments, a senior U.S. official defense official said the policy may just be moving in that direction. On the sidelines of a June meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, the official listed examples of things Ukraine has wanted that America has changed its mind on: fighter jets, long-range missiles, shooting into Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you look back over the course of a conflict, you can find a number of areas where we were reluctant to do something and then we did it,\u201d the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity, per Pentagon policy. \u201cSo never say never.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A different approach<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The path to the late-May policy change began weeks before Zelenskyy\u2019s comments in Singapore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier in May, Russia launched a new offensive near Kharkiv, Ukraine\u2019s second-largest city. Unlike other major urban areas in the country, Kharkiv sits near the Russian border \u2014 about 20 miles away. Largely due to limitations on how Ukraine could use Western-provided weapons, Russia was able to fire from its side of the border without significant retaliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou could just look at the maps … showing the Russians amassing just across the border and using that to strike into Ukraine,\u201d the U.S. defense official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Russia used glide bombs to attack the Epicenter shopping complex in Kharkiv, Ukraine, in May 2024, killing at least 19 people, including two children. (Evgeniy Maloletka\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine asked for the ability to fire into Russia, which Washington granted after some European partners publicly supported the request. But it would be limited: Ukraine could fire U.S. weapons \u2014 like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, with a range of nearly 50 miles \u2014 across the border to defend itself around Kharkiv. It still couldn\u2019t fire long-range American weapons \u2014 such as the ATACMS missile with a reach of about 186 miles \u2014 at targets deeper into Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within weeks U.S. officials were crediting the change, in part, to a more stable front line. When Austin visited NATO headquarters in June, members of the U.S. delegation called the mood \u201cupbeat.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat I see is a slowing of the Russian\u2019s advance and a stabilizing of that particular piece of the front,\u201d Austin said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts were skeptical of that account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael Kofman, who studies the Ukraine war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, said that by the time America\u2019s policy changed, Russia had already started to lose momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Russian offensive had already culminated before the policy change went into effect,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That isn\u2019t to say the approval to fire into Russia was useless. The point is to create dilemmas, according to Barros. Under the current policy Russian forces will have to spread farther apart, lest they become easy targets. That will make it harder to launch new offensives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that\u2019s a limited benefit, Barros told Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not going to make a massive difference in the long run, as it stands,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Right to self-defense\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Hence, a bevy of officials in the U.S. and abroad have pushed to end the remaining restrictions. Among this group is NATO\u2019s secretary general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortly before the June meeting in Brussels, Jens Stoltenberg stepped into the headquarters lobby to speak with reporters<\/a>. On strikes into Russia, he made two points: Because the border and the front lines are so close near Kharkiv, Ukraine would struggle to defend itself if it couldn\u2019t fire into Russia. And the burden shouldn\u2019t be on Ukraine to avoid escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUkraine has the right to strike military targets on Russian territory \u2014 part of the right to self-defense \u2014 and we have the right to support them in defending themselves,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Members of Congress, prominent Democrats among them, have urged the Biden administration to loosen restrictions for Ukraine. Many European partners have joined them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRussia is organizing the attacks from Russian territory, and we put restrictions on Ukraine,\u201d Lithuanian Defence Minister Laurynas Kas\u010di\u016bnas said in an interview with Defense News. \u201cIt\u2019s nonsense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during the Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore on June 2, 2024. (Nhac Nguyen\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But based on several recent statements from American officials, it\u2019s unclear what those restrictions are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When asked to clarify America\u2019s policy on strikes into Russia, the U.S. defense official speaking in Brussels paused and opened a binder of prepared notes. Reading them, the official listed several of the talking points the administration has used when discussing the policy: \u201climited,\u201d \u201cmilitary targets,\u201d \u201cjust across the border.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s not much more detail,\u201d the official said, as reporters in the room laughed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a news conference later that day, Austin answered questions about the policy, framing it around Ukraine\u2019s northeast. \u201cThe ability to conduct counterfire in this close fight in Kharkiv region is what this is all about,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But several days later in an interview with PBS<\/a>, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the permission to strike \u201cextends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional territory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is not about geography,\u201d Sullivan added. \u201cIt\u2019s about common sense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Ukraine\u2019s perspective, the policy is \u201cquite clear,\u201d according to Dmytro Klimenkov, the deputy minister of defense for procurement. He declined to comment on whether the policy should be looser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Red lines<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to long-range fires, specifically the ATACMS, the Biden administration has drawn a red line. But there are reasons for the limit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. wants Ukraine to concentrate its responses to Russia\u2019s invasion as much as possible \u2014 the difference between one uppercut and multiple jabs in a boxing match. Preventing Ukraine from firing even farther into Russia forces the embattled nation to focus on what U.S. officials call \u201cthe close fight\u201d around Kharkiv and other parts of the front line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s also the escalation factor: Russia is a nuclear-armed country and has threatened to use those weapons multiple times during the war, although that hasn\u2019t happened. The Russian government can also harass the U.S. and other allies elsewhere: supporting militant groups targeting American forces or staging limited attacks in European cities<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concern over a deeper or wider war has influenced the Biden administration\u2019s policies since the full-scale invasion two years ago. But that concern has changed as the Pentagon gets a better sense for Russia\u2019s actual willingness to escalate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe risk of escalation is not as high as maybe it was at the beginning of the process,\u201d Gen. CQ Brown, the U.S. military\u2019s top uniformed officer, said during a March roundtable with reporters. \u201cYou understand a bit more over time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And over time, with the threat of escalation unrealized, Ukraine has received more capable weapons and greater authority to use them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
An ATACMS weapon fires during a test at White Sands Missile Range, N.M. (U.S. Army)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It wasn\u2019t until March when the Biden administration sent Ukraine the long-range ATACMS missiles. The country is already using them by, for example, hitting air defense batteries stationed in Crimea, a peninsula Russia seized in 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s ability to hit Russian assets on Crimea has made Moscow restructure its forces there, shifting much of its naval fleet farther away<\/a>. One could imagine a similar move elsewhere if the ban on long-range strikes into Russia were lifted, said Barros, the analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. For example, Russia would likely be forced to spread its air defense and electronic warfare assets farther apart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It might also struggle to launch as many raids on Ukrainian cities, threatened by Russian bombers<\/a> that sit on airfields that are out of reach under the current policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRussia is permanently firing in calm, knowing that Ukraine will not fire back,\u201d Zelenskyy said at the news conference in Singapore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Sovereign decision\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

But Ukraine has fired back. Throughout this year, its military struck oil refineries across Russia in an attempt to damage one of the government\u2019s core sources of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strikes proved controversial in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee in April<\/a>, the assistant secretary for defense for international security affairs said the Pentagon doesn\u2019t want Ukraine attacking civilian infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo far the strikes that we have seen against Russian energy sources have not significantly altered Russia\u2019s ability to prosecute the war,\u201d Celeste Wallander said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Ukraine wasn\u2019t using American-provided weapons for those strikes, which meant they didn\u2019t apply to existing restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is Ukraine\u2019s sovereign decision,\u201d Wallander noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Ukrainian soldiers operate at an artillery position on June 9, 2024, near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. (Nikoletta Stoyanova\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, told Defense News his country has two sets of long-range weapons: drones that can fire up to 900 miles and missiles that can reach 430 miles. The limiting factor for these capabilities, the official said, is scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the official claimed, Ukraine knows how to build them and could increase production, but it lacks the funding to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klimenkov, the Ukrainian defense procurement official, was more cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have enough capacity\u201d to build the required amount of long-range weapons alone, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That means for now, Ukraine will need to keep using other countries\u2019 weapons and conforming to their rules. But building its own long-range fires remains a top priority, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat is not easy,\u201d he said. \u201cIt takes time.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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