{"id":71789,"date":"2025-11-12T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2025\/11\/12\/nato-needs-a-new-harmel-report\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:24:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:24:31","slug":"nato-needs-a-new-harmel-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2025\/11\/12\/nato-needs-a-new-harmel-report\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO needs a new Harmel Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s aggression in not only continuing the war in Ukraine but also testing NATO\u2019s air and sea space with drones, fighter jets and underwater vehicles, it is time for the alliance to react decisively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Offering empty rhetoric and promises to spend more money on defense will not work short of one crucial factor. NATO needs to apply brain power in developing effective and affordable actions to counter Russia by affecting Putin\u2019s mental processes and \u201coutthink\u201d him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is needed is a 21st-century version of the 1967 Harmel Report, headed by Pierre Harmel, Belgium\u2019s foreign minister, that led the change from the alliance\u2019s \u201cmassive retaliation\u201d strategy to \u201cflexible response.\u201d Today, however, this report should focus on military options designed to change Putin\u2019s behavior, eventually leading to military\/diplomatic dialogue, a better understanding of each other\u2019s concerns and, importantly, the resumption of arms control negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NATO\u2019s centerpiece is Article 5, which states that an armed attack against one or more members shall be considered an attack against them all. But what constitutes an \u201carmed attack\u201d today? Is it cyber, disruption of underwater cables or overflights by armed fighters? What about \u201cother measures\u201d to affect domestic politics through influence operations or threats to use nuclear weapons? The answer is unclear, but it needs to be resolved and a consensus established, ideally on both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What should NATO do? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Russian language, \u201cmaskirovka\u201d means deception. NATO needs to plagiarize and use a reverse variant of maskirovka against the Russians in writing this report. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To do that, in addition to adapting a <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.usni.org\/posts\/2018\/05\/03\/a-porcupine-defense-against-russia-and-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/blog.usni.org\/posts\/2018\/05\/03\/a-porcupine-defense-against-russia-and-china\">porcupine defense<\/a> we have proposed elsewhere, NATO must be able to disrupt, mislead and shock Putin using influence operations to convince or coerce him to stop his \u201carmed attacks\u201d against NATO. This starts with analyzing possible NATO strategies that could threaten any Russian incursion by attacking the country\u2019s vital military centers of gravity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, except for theater nuclear weapons \u2014 and NATO has three nuclear-armed members, the United States, United Kingdom and France \u2014 the alliance is far superior in every measure of power, especially military. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite fears of a Russian military attack against the West, the war in Ukraine has exposed the incompetence of many Russian generals and the evisceration of its army and navy. NATO must understand that Russia, while it is now learning lessons from its operations in Ukraine, is far weaker than many assume. These vulnerabilities can be exploited through NATO\u2019s use of maskirovka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, past promises for increased defense spending were never met. NATO\u2019s Wales summit in 2014 committed members to applying 3% of GDP to defense. Similarly, this year\u2019s summit set a goal of 5% of GDP, with 3.5% for defense and 1.5% for related infrastructure enhancements. Predicting the future is not easy, but, as in the past, virtually all members, including the U.S., will not reach that level. Better thinking and not more spending, regardless of whether the 5% of GDP goal is met, is needed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Third, NATO must take the fight to Putin conceptually. Exploiting NATO\u2019s geographic advantages is key. In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/opinion\/2025\/09\/16\/amphibious-capabilities-extend-natos-range-in-the-high-north\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/opinion\/2025\/09\/16\/amphibious-capabilities-extend-natos-range-in-the-high-north\/\">High North<\/a>, Finland, with an 800-mile border with Russia, and its neighbor Sweden provide strategic leverage. Russia\u2019s northern fleet in the Kola Peninsula in the north cape is as vulnerable as its Black Sea fleet is to Ukrainian standoff missiles, unmanned submarines and drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Baltic, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is physically separated from Russia. It is an obvious target, especially for influence operations which threaten Russia\u2019s hold on the population. In the Black Sea, with Turkey\u2019s huge army and Romania and Bulgaria, any Russian attack could be offset by NATO\u2019s ability to threaten Russian forces in Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To give this new Harmel Report teeth, tabletop and command post exercises that war-game these options will be used. Russia will no doubt monitor them. Finally, any Russian overflights or incursions into home waters that break agreed conventions must be met by force and shot down or sunk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clearly, this review will provoke strong reactions, both positive and negative, within NATO members and from Russia, thereby raising the threat of escalation. But the reality is that Russia is already using quasi \u201carmed attacks\u201d against NATO and NATO must react. The knowledge that two can play this game will make Russia pause and bring relations back into better balance, allowing for a more stable relationship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NATO must take these initiatives to halt Putin\u2019s use of \u201cother measures\u201d to attack and disrupt the alliance by affecting and influencing his strategic calculations. And, under U.S. President Donald Trump, America\u2019s commitment to NATO is not assured. The alliance can neutralize this unhappy prospect by confronting Russia now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While we did not believe Putin would make the strategic blunder of invading Ukraine a second time, given the weaknesses Russia faces and will continue to face, NATO can achieve its deterrence goals by counterintuitively becoming more aggressive, taking the offensive using brains, innovation and maskirovka to derail Putin\u2019s calculations. But will it? And will NATO begin thinking about what a post-war Russia looks like to forestall another 1917 or 1991 and collapse?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Field Marshal David the Lord Richards is a former U.K. chief of defense. Dr. Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at Washington\u2019s Atlantic Council. Both are co-authoring \u201cWho Thinks Best Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe\u201d due out in spring 2026.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given Putin\u2019s aggression in continuing the war in Ukraine and also testing NATO&#8217;s air and sea space, it is time for the alliance to react decisively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":120253,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":17,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,36,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3797,2185],"class_list":["post-71789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"JSS7V5UTR5B2RPUIO36MYZIYMI","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/2025\/11\/12\/nato-needs-a-new-harmel-report\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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