{"id":72889,"date":"2026-04-21T10:41:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T10:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:29:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:29:53","slug":"trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the recent ceasefire between Iran and the United States, the Islamic Republic continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the United States has established its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/news\/your-military\/2026\/04\/20\/us-navy-destroyer-fires-on-cargo-vessel-attempting-to-sail-to-iranian-port\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/news\/your-military\/2026\/04\/20\/us-navy-destroyer-fires-on-cargo-vessel-attempting-to-sail-to-iranian-port\/\">own naval blockade<\/a> in the strait and sends thousands more troops to the region. All of this follows multiple threats from President Trump, including one promising to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/07\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-civilization-threat.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/07\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-civilization-threat.html\">destroy Iran\u2019s civilization<\/a>. These threats have failed to open the Strait of Hormuz, which had been open prior to the joint U.S.-Israeli attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why didn\u2019t the president\u2019s maximalist threats work? Indeed, his bombastic form of diplomacy appears to have undermined the prospects for peace between the United States and Iran. To understand why Trump has failed to change Iran\u2019s behavior, it is necessary to examine his approach to diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump relies on a version of the \u201cmadman theory\u201d in many of his disputes. His approach resembles a distorted, MAGA version of Theodore Roosevelt\u2019s famous maxim \u2013 that is, scream loudly and swing a big golf club.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In practice, it often amounts to boisterous threats without a clear or credible strategy behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2026\/04\/20\/baltic-nations-brace-for-impact-of-iran-war-delaying-us-weapons-shipments\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1243523673.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Baltic nations brace for impact of Iran war delaying US weapons shipments<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Delays in ammunition deliveries could reopen a thorny question for Baltic HIMARS users: Would the U.S. permit non-Lockheed rockets to be loaded?<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And despite the president\u2019s rather novel use of the theory, it does have a sketchy if unsuccessful history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While President Nixon\u2019s political aide, H. R. Haldeman, <a href=\"https:\/\/history.state.gov\/historicaldocuments\/frus1969-76v34\/d59\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/history.state.gov\/historicaldocuments\/frus1969-76v34\/d59\">popularized the term<\/a> \u201cmadman theory,\u201d it was developed more fully by economist and deterrence theorist Thomas Schelling and military analyst Daniel Ellsberg. The madman theory is a deterrent technique, to be used in limited circumstances: it signals to an adversary, \u201cDo not take this action, or the consequences will be severe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To succeed, however, the adversary must believe the threat will be carried out. The more frequent or outlandish the threats, the more the madman\u2019s credibility deteriorates. Success stories of the madman theory are few and far between. Richard Nixon signaled that he would use nuclear weapons against North Vietnam in 1969 to bring it and the Soviet Union to the negotiating table. It failed. Nikita Khrushchev\u2019s nuclear blackmail were unconvincing for NATO forces to withdraw from West Berlin. Saddam Hussein cultivated ambiguity about weapons of mass destruction to deter Iran and the United States from invading. And that story did not end well for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given its lackluster record, it is unclear why policymakers continue to rely on this approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Besides the madman theory being flawed, the U.S. lacks the will and capabilities to back up President Trump\u2019s threats. Iran\u2019s leadership is likely aware of the American people\u2019s unwillingness to fight another <a href=\"https:\/\/yougov.com\/en-us\/articles\/54454-most-americans-oppose-sending-ground-troops-to-iran-march-27-30-2026-economist-yougov-poll\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/yougov.com\/en-us\/articles\/54454-most-americans-oppose-sending-ground-troops-to-iran-march-27-30-2026-economist-yougov-poll\">ground war in the Middle East<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump\u2019s threat to destroy Iran produced massive backlash from the American public, including his base. Such public disapproval of madman behavior undermines its credibility and effectiveness. What\u2019s more, American munitions are in short supply and rapidly depleting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-military\/2026\/04\/01\/is-the-us-running-out-of-tomahawk-missiles-heres-what-the-experts-say\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-military\/2026\/04\/01\/is-the-us-running-out-of-tomahawk-missiles-heres-what-the-experts-say\/\">Take Tomahawk cruise missiles<\/a>. In just slightly over four weeks, the United States launched about 850 of these missiles against Iran out of the total 3,100 missiles in its inventory, and only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.navytimes.com\/news\/your-navy\/2026\/04\/07\/us-navy-seeks-1200-increase-in-tomahawk-missile-procurement-for-2027\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\" title=\"https:\/\/www.navytimes.com\/news\/your-navy\/2026\/04\/07\/us-navy-seeks-1200-increase-in-tomahawk-missile-procurement-for-2027\/\">produces<\/a> around 90 missiles per year. These two facts already rendered Trump\u2019s threats kaput.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump\u2019s frequent use of bombastic rhetoric further erodes that credibility. He has issued sweeping threats across multiple contexts\u2014from \u201cfire and fury\u201d toward North Korea to threatening to withdraw from NATO, as well as to \u201ctake\u201d Greenland. Over time, this creates a \u201cboy who cried wolf\u201d dynamic, making it difficult to take his most worrisome threats seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump continues to tell Iran, \u201cDo this, or I\u2019ll blow up everyone.\u201d This rhetoric reflects what Schelling described as \u201ccompellence\u201d\u2014an effort to force an adversary to change its behavior\u2014rather than deterrence, which seeks to prevent an action in the first place. But compellence is typically more difficult to achieve, as it requires the target to abandon the status quo, of which humans are psychologically inclined to prefer. Deterrence, by contrast, reinforces it. This distinction helps explain why threats that might prevent an action often fail to reverse one already underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Trump\u2019s overuse and misapplication of the madman theory has placed the United States in a difficult position. The risk of deeper involvement in the Middle East is rising at a time when the margin for error in U.S. foreign policy is limited. Yet the current approach offers few clear pathways to either de-escalation or success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The United States is stuck with an inept form of coercion in its war with Iran\u2014one that generates heat but no leverage. Trump\u2019s use of the madman theory has failed to produce security or stability. It has only revealed the madness of America\u2019s current policy towards Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Benjamin Giltner is a Policy Analyst in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute, where he works on issues related to U.S. military strategy and foreign policy, great-power competition, nuclear weapons and deterrence.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":120749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":17,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,11,47,36,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3859],"class_list":["post-72889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-global","category-mideast-africa","category-newsletters","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"GTRUN6GQTFAELAOY7DZWRF3STE","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-21T10:41:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-08T01:29:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Benjamin Giltner\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Benjamin Giltner\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"migration\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cc76c831bb37a926738c8391fca7a3b1\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-21T10:41:11+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-08-08T01:29:53+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 825,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Daily News Roundup\",\n\t                \"Global\",\n\t                \"Mideast Africa\",\n\t                \"Newsletters\",\n\t                \"Opinion\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran - Defense News\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-21T10:41:11+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-08-08T01:29:53+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.\",\n\t            \"breadcrumb\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#breadcrumb\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"BreadcrumbList\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/21\\\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\\\/#breadcrumb\",\n\t            \"itemListElement\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ListItem\",\n\t                    \"position\": 1,\n\t                    \"name\": \"Home\",\n\t                    \"item\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/\",\n\t                    \"ad_zone\": \"home\"\n\t                },\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ListItem\",\n\t                    \"position\": 2,\n\t                    \"name\": \"Opinion\",\n\t                    \"item\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/opinion\\\/\",\n\t                    \"ad_zone\": \"opinion\"\n\t                },\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ListItem\",\n\t                    \"position\": 3,\n\t                    \"name\": \"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran\"\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Defense News\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Covering the politics, business and technology of defense | Defense News\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Defense News\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/defensenews-logo-white.png\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/defensenews-logo-white.png\",\n\t                \"caption\": \"Defense News\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            }\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cc76c831bb37a926738c8391fca7a3b1\",\n\t            \"name\": \"migration\",\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/9e8d47be443ce94ce7fc357677b5f9c70235bb1f59e7267a102a74af58c04f59?s=96&d=mm&r=gcf4cb6ee0ec29e49e7a963234e4340ec\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/9e8d47be443ce94ce7fc357677b5f9c70235bb1f59e7267a102a74af58c04f59?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/9e8d47be443ce94ce7fc357677b5f9c70235bb1f59e7267a102a74af58c04f59?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\n\t                \"caption\": \"migration\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/one.sightlinemg.com\\\/defensenews\\\/author\\\/migration\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran - Defense News","description":"Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran","og_description":"Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.","og_url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/","og_site_name":"Defense News","article_published_time":"2026-04-21T10:41:11+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-08-08T01:29:53+00:00","author":"Benjamin Giltner","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Benjamin Giltner","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/"},"author":{"name":"migration","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#\/schema\/person\/cc76c831bb37a926738c8391fca7a3b1"},"headline":"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran","datePublished":"2026-04-21T10:41:11+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-08T01:29:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/"},"wordCount":825,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News Roundup","Global","Mideast Africa","Newsletters","Opinion"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/","url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/","name":"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran - Defense News","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg","datePublished":"2026-04-21T10:41:11+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-08T01:29:53+00:00","description":"Compounding the problem is Trump\u2019s misapplication of the madman theory itself, argues CATO Institute analyst Benjamin Giltner.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/2026\/04\/21\/trumps-madman-diplomacy-isnt-working-on-iran\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/","ad_zone":"home"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Opinion","item":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/opinion\/","ad_zone":"opinion"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Trump\u2019s madman diplomacy isn\u2019t working on Iran"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#website","url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/","name":"Defense News","description":"Covering the politics, business and technology of defense | Defense News","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#organization","name":"Defense News","url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/defensenews-logo-white.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/defensenews-logo-white.png","caption":"Defense News"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/#\/schema\/person\/cc76c831bb37a926738c8391fca7a3b1","name":"migration","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9e8d47be443ce94ce7fc357677b5f9c70235bb1f59e7267a102a74af58c04f59?s=96&d=mm&r=gcf4cb6ee0ec29e49e7a963234e4340ec","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9e8d47be443ce94ce7fc357677b5f9c70235bb1f59e7267a102a74af58c04f59?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9e8d47be443ce94ce7fc357677b5f9c70235bb1f59e7267a102a74af58c04f59?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"migration"},"url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/author\/migration\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"Defense News","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews","push-errors":false,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-2271062282.jpg.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72889"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72889\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72912,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72889\/revisions\/72912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72889"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=72889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}