{"id":17131,"date":"2019-03-15T17:51:52","date_gmt":"2019-03-15T17:51:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/uncategorized\/2019\/03\/15\/there-are-mounting-signs-of-military-planning-for-venezuela\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T05:59:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T05:59:58","slug":"there-are-mounting-signs-of-military-planning-for-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/flashpoints\/2019\/03\/15\/there-are-mounting-signs-of-military-planning-for-venezuela\/","title":{"rendered":"There are mounting signs of military planning for Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

President Donald Trump has been talking about ordering a military operation targeting Venezuela<\/a> since 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At first, that was widely dismissed as a rash threat, but the idea of a U.S. effort to force \u201cregime change\u201d<\/a> in the oil-rich South American country may be gaining momentum in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a regime that, frankly, could be toppled very quickly by the military if the military decides to do that,\u201d Trump said <\/a>in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January, National Security Adviser John Bolton flashed a notebook that read \u201c5,000 troops to Colombia.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ordered all U.S. diplomats to leave Venezuela, saying their presence there \u201chas become a constraint on U.S. policy,\u201d hinting at opening potential military options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speculation about a military assault on Venezuela was also fueled by Trump\u2019s recent appointment of a former George W. Bush administration official who was an architect of the Iraq War, Elliot Abrams<\/a>, to be the new \u201cSpecial Representative for Venezuela.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heightened concerns prompted the Democratic-led House Foreign Affairs Committee to meet Wednesday to debate a bill that would prohibit Trump from taking military action in Venezuela without congressional approval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

White House officials say \u201call options on the table<\/a>,\u201d including a military intervention or military support of allies in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supporters point to the short, successful 1989 invasion of Panama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But critics say that\u2019s a bad analogy and caution that such a move could result in something resembling the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, in which anti-U.S. factions faced protracted insurgencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An invasion of Venezuela would require between 100,000 and 150,000 U.S. troops, who would face as many as 356,000 Venezuelan troops in a country twice the size of Iraq, said Rebecca Chavez, senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, during testimony at the House hearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt would be prolonged, it would be ugly, there would be massive casualties,\u201d Chavez said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That nightmare scenario may be farfetched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many experts believe the White House\u2019s hawkish statements are not a sign of an imminent military attack but instead a signal to the Venezuelan opposition that the U.S. would support an internal coup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019re not trying to provoke a war,” according to Fulton T. Armstrong, a former CIA analyst with significant Latin American experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019re trying to provoke the Venezuelan military to rise up and overthrow Maduro,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There appears to be very few advocates for military action outside the White House and many experts believe it is highly unlikely that the Trump administration would follow through on its seemingly threatening rhetoric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt would be completely counter-productive,\u201d said Larry Korb, a former Pentagon official who is now at the Center for American Progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is a no-win situation if you go in. The damage would be much worse than any gains we might get.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, the crisis is deteriorating rapidly. Refugees and defecting military troops are flowing into Colombia. Maduro recently blamed a massive electricity blackout across the capital city of Caracas on a U.S. cyber attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

White House officials say the recent election of Maduro was a sham, fraught with corruption, and renders him an illegitimate leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maduro and his allies in the government and military have plundered the nation\u2019s cash from its vast oil reserves, watching its population starve and flee by the millions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. has imposed economic sanctions against banks, canceled visas for Venezuelan government officials and taken other economic or political measures to pressure Maduro to exit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Venezuela descend further into chaos, the White House could call upon traditional military operations, like targeted strikes, covert actions and fires, logistical and humanitarian support by U.S. troops in Colombia, Panama or in ships offshore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDesperate civilians always turn to the military, and say \u2018solve my problems,\u2019\u201d Armstrong said. \u201cAnd the military often doesn\u2019t push back.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Maduro often talks about \u201ca war of all the people,” involving mass resistance, a protracted war would be unlikely, said Armstrong, who is now a senior fellow at American University\u2019s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Armstrong added that an American invasion would certainly face snipers and bomb-makers, and it would be costly. But local Venezuelan groups like the colectivos \u2014 various gangs, some of which support Maduro \u2014 are mainly thugs who wouldn\u2019t stand in the streets against the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maduro is likely not the \u201ckey symbol that would unify people to resist U.S. military action and lead to a sustained insurgency,\u201d Armstrong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut the U.S. has selected in Juan Guaid\u00f3 and others, people who have sworn to reverse \u2018Chavismo,\u2019\u201d Armstrong said, referencing the poorly defined ideology of the deceased Hugo Chavez, which has at least on paper given the poor a voice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A C-17 Globemaster III delivers humanitarian aid from Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL to Cucuta, Colombia February 16, 2019. This mission was planned at the request of the U.S. Secretary of State, in close coordination with USAID and with the approval of the government of Colombia. The role of the U.S. military during this peaceful mission is to transport urgently needed aid to Colombia for eventual distribution by relief organizations on the ground for Venezuelans impacted by the rapidly deteriorating crisis in their country. This humanitarian mission underscores the United States\u2019 firm commitment and readiness to respond to the man-made political, economic, and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Tech. Sgt. Gregory Brook)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[It] may be a perverted voice, but they do have a voice,” Armstrong added. Some in Venezuela may fight to retain that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, neither the White House nor the Pentagon has signaled what approach the U.S. might take to end the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey keep saying \u2018all the options are on the table,\u2019 but they refuse to articulate them. That\u2019s kind of weird, and we\u2019re left to speculate,\u201d Armstrong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018All options\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One such speculation is that the administration will try to create a \u201chumanitarian corridor\u201d that would let U.S. troops enter a small area of Venezuela, possibly along the border with Columbia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe publicly stated purpose of that would be to rescue people and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian supplies. The real purpose of that, however, would be to intimidate and provoke [a coup],” Armstrong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another option could be a surgical strike on the presidential palace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut still, to achieve that you would have to provoke Maduro into doing something that you could say threatened U.S. interests,\u201d Armstrong said. \u201cThe problem with U.S. military intervention in all of this is that none of this matters at all to U.S. national security.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the other options would be covert tools or special operations missions that have been used before, and in particular by the current special envoy to Venezuela, Elliot Abrams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The London Observer reported <\/a>in 2002 that Abrams \u201cgave a nod to\u201d a failed Venezuelan coup attempt against Hugo Ch\u00e1vez that same year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August 2018, two drones allegedly carrying explosives detonated prematurely near a stage in Caracas where Maduro was giving a speech. Maduro\u2019s regime alleged that it was the result of foreign meddling, while others have suggested it was a false flag operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat sort of stuff, with the imagination of people like Elliot Abrams, who have engaged in and launched covert action, who misrepresented those covert actions to the U.S. Congress \u2026 in my humble opinion \u2026 would seem to be the more likely thing,\u201d Armstrong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pentagon deferred questions beyond aid support to U.S. Southern Command. SOUTHCOM told Military Times that their assets devoted to Venezuela have been mostly moving humanitarian aid through airlift missions<\/a> to Colombia via Miami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSince Feb. 4, 2019, the United States has pre-positioned hundreds of metric tons of critical relief supplies in Colombia and Brazil \u2014 procured both locally and internationally \u2014 to help tens of thousands in Venezuela,\u201d according to an official response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pentagon also put Marines assets on stand-by in case the embassy staff needed assistance during evacuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Several CH-53E Super Stallion helicopters from Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 772, Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force – Southern Command, standby on the flight line aboard Marine Corps Air Station New River, North Carolina, before departing for Soto Cano Air Base, Honduras, June 8, 2016. SPMAGTF-SC is a temporary deployment of Marines and sailors throughout Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Belize with a focus on building and maintaining partnership capacity with each country through shared values, challenges, and responsibility. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Adwin Esters\/Released)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SOUTHCOM officials did not comment on accusations by Russia that U.S. special operations forces were staging in Puerto Rico in February for a possible military option.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Army\u2019s 7th Special Forces Group and the Air Force\u2019s 23rd Special Tactics Squadron, as well as a bevy of other Air Force Special Operations Command aircraft, are located in Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ana Quintana, senior policy analyst on Latin America for the Heritage Foundation, applauded Abrams\u2019 appointment as envoy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She told Military Times that having Abrams in that position puts pressure on Maduro, because Abrams signals a willingness to oust dictators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States has had a checkered history in Latin America that dates back centuries, including a series of campaigns to control natural resources and covert actions that resulted in assassinations and coups or attempts across the region, the recent history has a different look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former SOUTHCOM commander from 2006 to 2009, retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis, now operating executive for The Carlyle Group, has written multiple times and spoken out about the Venezuelan crisis while also writing in January in Time magazine that, \u201ca full-blown invasion by the U.S. would foment rage in the region and internationally.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere may come a time for more dramatic military activities, perhaps an international peacekeeping force. But for the moment, our efforts are best served by supporting the brave Venezuelans fighting the Maduro regime through the overall efforts of the international community,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Members of the Chilean navy special operations forces and U.S. Army 7th Special Forces Group clear a building during Emerald Warrior in Apalachicola, Fla., April 28, 2015. Emerald Warrior is the Department of Defense’s only irregular warfare exercise, allowing joint and combined partners to train together and prepare for real world contingency operations. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kenneth W. Norman\/Released)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Navy\u2019s longest running multinational maritime exercise is hosted by allies in the area. The UNITAS \u2014 Spanish for unity \u2014 exercise has been running since 1960 and partners a dozen or more nations a year for military training, sharing technology and best practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently, the United States has dedicated training and advising partnerships through the Pentagon with Panama, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year saw the fourth consecutive Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force deploy during hurricane season while also assisting in military training and humanitarian missions in Honduras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The task force is one piece of an early effort to create a Multinational Maritime Task Force for the region that would be on standby for missions ranging from disaster relief to security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey led U.S. Southern Command from 1994 to 1996 and oversaw operations in Panama handling more than 10,000 Cuban refugees. He continued a focus on the region non-militarily when he served as director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy from 1996 to 2001.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He remains engaged as a sometimes adviser on the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

McCaffrey said the best options if military moves were going to be considered would be for a coalition of regional partners, such as the Organization of American States, to take the lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though he doubted that OAS would get involved in any armed intervention within Venezuela, he said he could see their role in protecting neighboring borders and perhaps assisting in peacekeeping after Maduro is out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that is the best role, McCaffrey said: supporting Colombian and other regional allies through training, advising and logistical support within those borders, but not in Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The U.S. will withdraw all remaining personnel from @usembassyve<\/a> this week. This decision reflects the deteriorating situation in #Venezuela<\/a> as well as the conclusion that the presence of U.S. diplomatic staff at the embassy has become a constraint on U.S. policy.<\/p>— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) March 12, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote>