{"id":41877,"date":"2020-04-23T13:10:51","date_gmt":"2020-04-23T13:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/uncategorized\/2020\/04\/23\/recent-tensions-with-americas-foes-are-nothing-new-but-covid-19-could-cause-miscalculation-and-conflict\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T03:47:54","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T03:47:54","slug":"recent-tensions-with-americas-foes-are-nothing-new-but-covid-19-could-cause-miscalculation-and-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/flashpoints\/2020\/04\/23\/recent-tensions-with-americas-foes-are-nothing-new-but-covid-19-could-cause-miscalculation-and-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 may increase risk of miscalculation and conflict with traditional adversaries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.navytimes.com\/news\/your-navy\/2020\/04\/20\/see-video-of-a-russian-jet-intercepting-us-navy-p-8-poseidon-for-second-time-in-less-than-a-week\/\" target=\"_blank\">COVID-19 <\/a>continues to create the perception of global chaos we\u2019re all living in the 1989 Billy Joel hit song \u201cWe Didn\u2019t Start the Fire\u201d \u2014 the reality is tensions with traditional American foes have always been smoldering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As COVID-19 has impacted U.S. readiness and even sidelined the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, there\u2019s a brewing perception that America\u2019s adversaries Russia, China and Iran are taking advantage of the chaos to prod American military weakness as the U.S. stumbles during COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But a former U.S. defense official and other analysts say recent aggression by America\u2019s adversaries is nothing new and fit a pattern of behavior established over the years. There is, however, fear the virus could cause miscalculation leading to a broader conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s just a continuation of kind of what\u2019s been going on for some time,\u201d said Mike Jones, who served as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2020\/03\/13\/us-keeping-two-carriers-in-mideast-moving-patriot-missile-batteries-into-iraq-as-iran-tensions-mount\/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Central Command <\/a>chief of staff in 2011 under then-commander James Mattis. \u201cI don\u2019t think this is brand new.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 19 there was an \u201cunprofessional\u201d and \u201cunsafe\u201d intercept of a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon over the Mediterranean Sea, the Navy announced. It was the second intercept of a P-8 over the same waters in less than a week \u2014 though the Navy deemed the first incident as safe and professional.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/flashpoints\/2020\/04\/22\/trump-tweets-that-hes-instructed-the-navy-to-destroy-any-iranian-gunboats-that-harass-us-warships\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Iran-1.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Trump tweets that he\u2019s instructed the Navy to \u2018destroy\u2019 any Iranian gunboats that harass US warships<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">\u201cI have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,\u201d Trump tweeted.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 14, 11 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2020\/04\/21\/american-troops-had-only-hours-to-react-to-iranian-ballistic-missile-attack-heres-what-they-did\/\" target=_blank>Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps<\/a> vessels harassed six U.S. warships operating in the Persian Gulf. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump tweeted he has instructed the Navy to \u201cdestroy\u201d any Iranian gunboats if they harass U.S. warships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the Pentagon on Wednesday, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. John Hyten, a former commander of American, called Trump\u2019s tweet a useful warning to Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/east-asia-pacific\/us-strongly-opposes-chinas-bullying-south-china-sea\" target=\"_blank\">Voice of America<\/a> reported that China has stepped up patrols in the South China Sea and that a Chinese aircraft carrier with five other ships were spotted conducting an exercise near Taiwan in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou\u2019ve also seen that the Chinese Communist Party is exerting military pressure on Taiwan and coercing its neighbors in the South China Sea, even going so far as to have \u2014 so far as to sink a Vietnamese fishing vessel,\u201d Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ticonderoga-class guided missile-cruiser Bunker Hill, amphibious assault ship America, Arleigh-Burke class guided missile destroyer Barry, along with the Australian Anzac-class frigate Parramatta teamed up for operations in the South China Sea on April 13, according to the Navy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retired Marine Lt. Col. Dakota Wood, a senior research fellow with the Washington, D.C.-based think tank The Heritage Foundation, told Military Times that recent machinations by American adversaries fit \u201cestablished patterns of behavior,&#8221; but still serves as a reminder that global competition still rages and the U.S. military needs to be postured to deal with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhether it is exploiting a perception of U.S. military readiness, only they would know that,&#8221; Wood said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBefore COVID-19 even became a part of our vocabulary we had Iranian gunboats that would make runs at U.S. Navy ships,\u201d he explained. \u201cThe Russians have been buzzing our aircraft for a very long time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think it\u2019s business as usual despite COVID-19,\u201d said Aaron Stein, the director of Middle East and national security projects for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. \u201cIran has not stopped its policy of coercion, stemming from U.S. actions taken to reimpose sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2020\/04\/20\/see-video-of-a-russian-jet-intercepting-us-navy-p-8-poseidon-for-second-time-in-less-than-a-week\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/P8.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">See video of a Russian jet intercepting US Navy P-8 Poseidon for second time in less than a week<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Navy said a Russian SU-35 intercepted the P-8 Poseidon twice over the course of 100 minutes as the aircraft was flying in international airspace.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But COVID-19 could create false perceptions of weakness and disunity causing an adversary to wrongfully assume the U.S. will not respond to certain actions that could turn into a broader conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe U.S. is politically weak \u2014 COVID-19 is proving it every day. Whether or not these actors want to press the Trump administration is a different question,\u201d Eric L. Robinson, a former U.S. defense, official told Military Times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Robinson said he helped advise Elizabeth Warren\u2019s presidential campaign regarding counterterrorism issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCOVID-19 merely is a factor that can lead to miscalculation,\u201d Jones said. \u201cIf they were to assume this is one more destraction that would keep the U.S. from responding to an attack or challenge it could add to the possibility of miscalculation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jones said American diplomats need to be working hard during this time to ensure countries know America\u2019s red lines to avert a conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prior to Trump\u2019s tweet threatening Iran, U.S. officials have been clearly voicing that America\u2019s forces stand ready to deter and react to any aggression despite the ongoing pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAdversaries who think now is the time to challenge the #USA: you\u2019re dangerously wrong,\u201d Secretary of Defense Mark Esper <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EsperDoD\/status\/1250876517112074246?s=20\" target=_blank>tweeted<\/a> in mid-April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThis pandemic does not curtail our duty. From patrolling the high seas to escorting Russian bombers out of U.S. airspace, our mission continues,\u201d Esper tweeted April 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russian aircraft on several occasions over the last two months have entered the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone, but they have not breached U.S. air space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTo those who wish us harm, make no mistake: even with the challenges that this disease has brought to our shores, the Department of Defense stands ready to meet any threat and defend our nation,\u201d Deputy Secretary of Defense David L. Norquist said in early April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">This pandemic does not curtail our duty. From patrolling the high seas to escorting Russian bombers out of U.S. airspace, our mission continues. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AY5TuI5tov\">pic.twitter.com\/AY5TuI5tov<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Archive: Dr. Mark T. Esper (@EsperDoD) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EsperDoD\/status\/1250206757093347334?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 14, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cTo those who wish us harm, make no mistake: even with the challenges that this disease has brought to our shores, the Department of Defense stands ready to meet any threat and defend our nation.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":84836,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":8,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[66,101,8,23,92,93,12,25,67],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3398],"class_list":["post-41877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coronavirus","category-daily-news-roundup","category-flashpoints","category-home","category-left-column","category-middle-column","category-news","category-newsletters","category-pentagon-congress"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"QSN35S37QFCBDEISAYX7ZPI6R4","arc_canonical_url":"\/flashpoints\/2020\/04\/23\/recent-tensions-with-americas-foes-are-nothing-new-but-covid-19-could-cause-miscalculation-and-conflict\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COVID-19 may increase risk of miscalculation and conflict with traditional adversaries - Marine Corps Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cTo those who wish us harm, make no mistake: even with the challenges that this disease has brought to our shores, the Department of Defense stands ready to meet any threat and defend our nation.\u201d\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COVID-19 may increase risk of miscalculation and conflict with traditional adversaries\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cTo those who wish us harm, make no mistake: even with the challenges that this disease has brought to our shores, the Department of Defense stands ready to meet any threat and defend our nation.\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/flashpoints\/2020\/04\/23\/recent-tensions-with-americas-foes-are-nothing-new-but-covid-19-could-cause-miscalculation-and-conflict\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Marine Corps Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-04-23T13:10:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-08T03:47:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Shawn Snow\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Shawn Snow\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script 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