{"id":63114,"date":"2019-03-27T18:57:23","date_gmt":"2019-03-27T18:57:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/uncategorized\/2019\/03\/27\/low-aim-or-intel-failure-isis-last-stand-shows-the-difficulty-in-estimating-enemy-manpower\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T13:27:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T13:27:12","slug":"low-aim-or-intel-failure-isis-last-stand-shows-the-difficulty-in-estimating-enemy-manpower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/flashpoints\/2019\/03\/27\/low-aim-or-intel-failure-isis-last-stand-shows-the-difficulty-in-estimating-enemy-manpower\/","title":{"rendered":"Low aim or intel failure? ISIS\u2019 last stand shows the difficulty in estimating enemy manpower"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It has been difficult to find a credible number for the Islamic State group<\/a>\u2019s total troop strength ever since it emerged, and speculation has ranged widely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CIA estimated in September 2014 that ISIS could muster up to 31,500 fighters across Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either that estimate was low or the network of fighters grew considerably, because the estimated enemy killed-in-action far out-paced ISIS\u2019 total strength<\/a> over the next three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During that time frame, the U.S.-led Inherent Resolve coalition<\/a> killed \u201c60,000 to 70,000\u2033 ISIS followers, Gen. Raymond Thomas, who helms U.S. Special Operations Command, said <\/a>in July 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But by July 2018, Inherent Resolve said it estimated ISIS manpower was once again between 28,600 and 31,600 in Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coalition officials also conceded that they had \u201clow confidence\u201d in the accuracy of those numbers, according to the final Pentagon inspector general quarterly report<\/a> for the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fluctuating numbers played out on a much smaller scale during ISIS\u2019 final stand<\/a> in the eastern Syrian town of Baghouz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces began their clearing operation in January. For months leading up to the assault, Inherent Resolve officials estimated that ISIS\u2019 total force was between 1,000 and 2,000 fighters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the time the assault finished in mid-March, SDF troops reported numbers<\/a> that seemed to far exceed the coalition\u2019s expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 17, several days before ISIS\u2019 final pocket finally fell, SDF officials said more than 29,000 ISIS fighters and their families had already surrendered, and another roughly 1,300 ISIS fighters had been killed or wounded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They differentiate this from the number of civilians evacuated, which they said was approximately 37,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When asked about the discrepancies in numbers, coalition officials told Military Times they would defer to the SDF\u2019s final count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSDF has been at the forefront, processing Daesh [ISIS] who surrender and assisting those seeking safety as they exit Baghuz,\u201d Col. James Rawlinson, Inherent Resolve public affairs director, said. “Therefore, I would have to defer to SDF regarding their efforts. “<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThroughout their existence, Daesh has attempted to obscure the true extent of their operational network,\u201d Rawlinson said. \u201cThe same is true for the tactical situation in Baghouz, where extensive tunnel networks and a dense civilian population provided ample resources for Daesh to make it difficult to determine the size of their fighting force.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rawlinson added that he couldn\u2019t go into detail regarding how the coalition estimated ISIS\u2019 force size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t trust manpower estimates for terrorist groups<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s difficult to understand how military intelligence was estimating ISIS\u2019 total strength, because they are unable to share their methods, often citing operational security concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a real epistemological problem here. Their estimates have been consistently off,\u201d said Thomas Joscelyn, a prominent watcher of terror groups and a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. \u201cWe deduced that the figures were low by looking at ISIS\u2019 operational tempo, and the amount of territory under their control. It seemed to us that they were under-counting.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know the motivation or exact cause. I only know that I\u2019ve come to learn that the U.S. is terrible at estimating overall force size,” Joscelyn added. \u201cI don\u2019t trust any manpower estimates for jihadist groups.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A CH-47 Chinook delivers an M777 howitzer to Soldiers training for a gun raid at Qayyara West Airfield, Iraq, Jan. 25, 2019. The 1st Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division deployed in support of Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, supporting the Iraqi Security Forces as they clear the last remaining pockets of ISIS. In conjunction with partner forces, Combined Joint Task Force \u2013 Operation Inherent Resolve defeats ISIS and sets conditions for follow-on operations to increase regional stability. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Eric Cerami)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Part of the military\u2019s estimate could have come from looking at the total area under ISIS\u2019 control and then utilizing a land-per-person formula to understand how many people that territory could support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, ISIS proved more resilient and determined in the end than many Westerners can imagine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And urban areas complicate counting enemy manpower even further, according to Michael Eisenstadt, director of the Washington Institute\u2019s Military and Security Studies Program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot of intelligence during the ISIS fight was likely gathered by a combination of drones, satellites and fixed-wing reconnaissance aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re talking about underground dwellings, satellite imagery won\u2019t be of much help,\u201d Eisenstadt said. \u201cIt\u2019s possible that for years they have been digging tunnels because we haven\u2019t been focusing on that area.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe whole phenomenon of subterranean warfare<\/a> is new to us,\u201d he added. \u201cIf you look at other areas where there have been insurgencies … there have been large underground dwellings built. I don\u2019t think we\u2019ve been dealing with this problem long enough and serious enough to understand how many people can live underground.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an example of the complicated tunneling that can be produced during a siege, Eisenstadt pointed to the ancient city of Derinkuyu<\/a>. The underground city extended to a depth 200 feet and is believed to have sheltered up to 20,000 people, along with food stores, during periodic conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Numbers \u2018are not worth the paper they\u2019re printed on\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During a State Department briefing Monday, Ambassador James F. Jeffrey opened up the aperture on ISIS\u2019 total strength a bit more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt had somewhere between 35,000 and 100,000 fighters. They\u2019re all in prison or dead or fled,\u201d Jeffrey, who served as the special envoy to the Inherent Resolve coalition, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s even difficult to get concrete numbers regarding the number of ISIS fighters being held in detention camps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe numbers are tricky,” Jeffrey said. \u201cWhat people are reporting to me were in the 7,000 or more, but it may have gone up over the weekend. It\u2019s very hard to maintain communications when people are floating around in temporary holding camps.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere was a very large ISIS force in Baghouz,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Members of the Maghawir al-Thawra Syrian opposition group receive firearms training from U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers at the al-Tanf military outpost in southern Syria on Monday, Oct. 22, 2018. (Lolita Baldor\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Numbers remain an important part of the overall mission in Syria and Iraq, because although ISIS has lost all physical territory, it\u2019s likely to re-emerge as an insurgent group<\/a>. And with U.S. troops planning to stay in northern and eastern Syria, ISIS\u2019 terror network will remain a lethal threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, it\u2019s difficult to pinpoint how many ISIS insurgents the U.S. faces in the vicinity of its outposts in places like northern Syria\u2019s Manbij<\/a> or the country\u2019s southeastern al-Tanf border crossing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey said some estimations have put the terror group at between 15,000 to 20,000 fighters. But those figures \u201care not worth the paper they\u2019re printed on or the air, the breath used to say,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One problem with estimating numbers is there is no border between Iraq and Syria. \u201cI mean, there\u2019s a technical border, a line on a map,” Jeffrey said, “but these areas, the al-Jazirah desert and other areas, people wander back and forth all the time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fluctuating numbers are reminiscent of the range of estimated Iraqi troops killed during the first Gulf War in 1991, Eisenstadt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimating EKIA is really, really hard<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eisenstadt worked on the Gulf War Air Power Survey, which the Air Force commissioned to document and analyze its performance in the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study put a damper on the wilder guesses of Iraqi casualties, which reached 100,000 by some estimates. In the end, the survey found that there were only roughly 20,000 Iraqi troop deaths, split about evenly between the ground and air campaigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One example of where a discrepancy could have occurred is if U.S. forces counted Iraqi vehicles destroyed in a convoy and then multiplied that count by the number of Iraqi troops who would be driving that equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut most Iraqi crews slept outside of their vehicles,\u201d Eisenstadt noted. Those vehicles could just as often have been empty during night bombing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“That was a conventional war; Insurgent warfare is even harder to count,\u201d Eisenstadt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In conventional war, troop deaths can be tallied by looking at sizes of standard units defeated, such as an armored brigade or fighter squadron. When fighting building to building in urban areas like Mosul or Raqqa, the number of enemy fighters is incredibly hard to gauge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem becomes even more pronounced for U.S. forces when ISIS is \u201cconstantly being replenished,” Eisenstadt added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s difficult to know ISIS\u2019 exact recruitment pattern as the group fled coalition bombs and ground troops, but \u201cforeign fighters and people on the ground can be recruited at any time,\u201d Eisenstadt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\t