{"id":77581,"date":"2018-10-23T18:52:24","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T18:52:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/uncategorized\/2018\/10\/23\/one-nuclear-treaty-is-dead-is-new-start-next\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:19:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:19:18","slug":"one-nuclear-treaty-is-dead-is-new-start-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/marinecorpstimes\/flashpoints\/2018\/10\/23\/one-nuclear-treaty-is-dead-is-new-start-next\/","title":{"rendered":"One nuclear treaty is dead. Is New START next?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 As the Trump administration moves closer towards exiting the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, experts are left to wonder whether another nuclear treaty may be in the administration\u2019s crosshairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Signed in 2010 between the U.S. and Russia, the New START treaty limits the deployed forces of both nations to 1,550 nuclear warheads over 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asked about New START\u2019s future while in Moscow, John Bolton. President Donald Trump\u2019s national security adviser, said the government is \u201ccurrently considering\u201d its position on the agreement, but then added that the administration \u201cdoes not have a position that we\u2019re prepared to negotiate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This isn<a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/space\/2017\/02\/23\/trump-threats-to-new-start-could-imperil-nuclear-modernization-programs\/\" target=_blank>\u2019t the first time<\/a> the administration has raised fears about the future of New START. In February 2017, Trump called the agreement \u201ca one-sided deal\u201d and a &#8220;bad deal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, nothing came from those comments, and a month later, Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, then the service\u2019s deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/digital-show-dailies\/air-warfare-symposium\/2017\/03\/02\/air-force-nuclear-officer-new-start-treaty-is-good-for-us\/\" target=_blank>said the agreement<\/a> was of \u201chuge value\u201d to the U.S., adding that it has \u201cbeen good for us.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Advocates for the treaty say New START benefits both directly by limiting the number of weapons deployed, and in indirect ways through information gathered.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/smr\/nuclear-arsenal\/2018\/10\/22\/did-the-us-botch-its-withdraw-from-the-inf-treaty\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-943937572.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Did the US botch its withdraw from the INF Treaty?<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Whether you support the Trump administration&#039;s withdraw from the INF treaty or oppose it, experts seem to agree that the roll out was not beneficial for America.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jim Miller, who served as an undersecretary of defense for policy during the Obama administration, said during a Monday Atlantic Council event that the treaty provides 18 on-site inspections of Russian weapons a year, \u201cvaluable\u201d information for America\u2019s military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The Russians need to see consequences from noncompliance on INF, I fundamentally agree with that,\u201d Miller said. But \u201cif the Russians don\u2019t see us as reliable partners in arms control agreements and think they are likely to be surprised by us, as they were by some degree from the withdraw of the ABM treaty and by the abrupt nature of the withdraw from INF, they may begin to hedge and they may be more inclined, rather than less inclined, to prepare themselves for a [nuclear] breakout.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking at the same Atlantic Council event, Richard Burt, who served as chief negotiator in the original START talks between the U.S. and Russia, said the INF decision is \u201cvery bad news for anybody who is a supporter of extending New START.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThat decision doesn\u2019t have to be formally taken until 2021, so a lot will depend on the outcome of the 2020 elections. I would say that if you do see Donald Trump re-elected and his national security adviser remains John Bolton, I think it\u2019s a better than even chance that New START is not extended,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notably, Bolton highlighted in his comments that the treaty doesn\u2019t expire until 2021, so \u201cwe have plenty of time,\u201d perhaps a hint that the administration does not plan to leave the agreement prematurely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But James Acton of the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program sees few ties between the INF move and the future of New START \u2014 not that he\u2019s optimistic about the latter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNew START is in deep trouble, but not because of this,\u201d he said. \u201cRussia, I think, would agree to extending New START even if the US withdraws from INF. The problem is that it\u2019s increasingly clear that this administration doesn\u2019t want to extend New START.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/air\/2018\/09\/14\/us-russia-remain-at-impasse-over-nuclear-treaty-flights\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"187\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1764088.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">US, Russia remain at \u2018impasse\u2019 over Open Skies treaty flights<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Tension between the U.S. and Russia over the Open Skies treaty have flared up once again.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the defense industry, the death knell of the INF agreement doesn\u2019t move the needle much, said analyst Byron Callan, of Capital Alpha Partners. But New START could be \u201canother matter,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNew START\u2019s demise could support a larger strategic weapons force, so it\u2019s possible that programs such as Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent [Boeing vs Northrop] and LRSO [Lockheed Martin vs Raytheon] competition are upsized, and there would be more work on nuclear weapons in the Department of Energy,\u201d Callan wrote in a note to investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2018\/07\/16\/3-thoughts-on-hypersonic-weapons-from-the-pentagons-technology-chief\/\" target=_blank>Hypersonic weapon<\/a> delivery platforms and missile defense could also play well in this environment, particularly with the possible loss of inspection\/verification provisions of New START.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Acton does wonder if domestic reaction to the INF withdrawal could change how the administration tackles New START, depending on potential blowback. But Callan notes that trying to project the political realities of 2021 is tough, given the U.S. is still two elections away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt remains conceivable that there are political changes (domestic and diplomatic) that result in major changes from current trajectories,\u201d he wrote. \u201cFor now, that does not appear likely, but then it didn\u2019t appear all that likely in the early-mid 1980s either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe\u2019d take the nuclear theme a year or two at a time, for now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Daniel Cebul in Washington contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Correction: The original version of this story attributed quotations from Jim Miller, made at the Atlantic Council event, to Frank Miller, also at the event. This story has been updated to correct that.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the INF treaty on its way out, the question becomes what else goes with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":115588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":8,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[101,8,12,25,67],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3280],"class_list":["post-77581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-flashpoints","category-news","category-newsletters","category-pentagon-congress"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"5PMC44YJGRFI7JVVHDFT3OJ4UM","arc_canonical_url":"\/pentagon\/2018\/10\/23\/one-nuclear-treaty-is-dead-is-new-start-next\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>One nuclear treaty is dead. Is New START next? - Marine Corps Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the INF treaty on its way out, the question becomes what else goes with it.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2018\/10\/23\/one-nuclear-treaty-is-dead-is-new-start-next\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"One nuclear treaty is dead. 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