{"id":114124,"date":"2022-08-04T18:40:21","date_gmt":"2022-08-04T18:40:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/uncategorized\/2022\/08\/04\/an-air-force-return-to-early-officer-promotions-would-be-ill-advised-without-more-data\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T14:05:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T14:05:40","slug":"an-air-force-return-to-early-officer-promotions-would-be-ill-advised-without-more-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/opinion\/2022\/08\/04\/an-air-force-return-to-early-officer-promotions-would-be-ill-advised-without-more-data\/","title":{"rendered":"An Air Force return to early officer promotions would be ill-advised without more data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I appreciate Maj. Kevin Rossillon\u2019s recent column suggesting a return to early officer promotions. However, I feel compelled to offer a dissenting view.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/management\/pay-benefits\/2022\/07\/17\/to-retain-talent-the-air-force-must-return-to-early-officer-promotions\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/CQ-Brown-all-call.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">To retain talent, the Air Force must return to early officer promotions<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Many brilliant officers are unwilling to languish in jobs where their knowledge and effort are underappreciated, and where middle management stifles their efforts to drive innovation.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My main issue with the opinion piece is that it fails to seriously grapple with the points that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.airforcetimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2019\/05\/14\/ned-stark-unveiled-colonel-who-wrote-viral-leadership-columns-has-a-challenge-for-the-air-force\/\" target=\"_blank\">Col. Jason Lamb<\/a> has argued <a href=\"https:\/\/www.airforcetimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2020\/07\/22\/commentary-farewell-to-ned-stark\/\" target=\"_blank\">in his essays<\/a>. In fact, the author states that he does not reject them and even agrees with many of Col. Lamb\u2019s points as valid, though that\u2019s all we\u2019re told. So, we\u2019re left as readers to fill in the blanks with assumptions and searching for implied facts, material for which the article is ripe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wish Maj. Rossillon had more directly engaged with Col. Lamb\u2019s ideas so we can understand as readers why he thinks we should discard them in favor of a return to early promotions. In the absence of this, I felt obliged to map out his thinking with some assumptions about his reasoning. I recognize that in doing this I may have erred in my interpretation and look forward to a response, should it be warranted.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/commentary\/2018\/06\/14\/commentary-wanted-leaders-we-can-believe-in\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/m6201310304230011arjpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Commentary: Wanted: Leaders we can believe in<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">We are finding smart officers, but we must do more to find good leaders and sideline the bad, the author writes.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maj. Rossillon presents us with two main points of contention. First, that the system as it is now will cause a brain drain of talent, seemingly because of dissatisfied \u201chigh caliber\u201d officers who are too eager to follow a standard career progression. To support this point, the author ebbs and flows between studies highlighting competitive compensation as a main concern while adding that it\u2019s more about a feeling of being underutilized and not related to monetary compensation. He readily admits the anecdotal nature of his own data, and I appreciate that self-awareness, but the author claims this anecdotal evidence is connected to the cited research, for which there is no reference provided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m afraid there are no connecting threads here. Even if the argument was thematically cogent, the anecdotal evidence is based on an extreme demographic cohort of self-selected, academically and professionally homogenous respondents to casual conversation, suggesting a very particular echo chamber that defines \u201chigh caliber\u201d in a very narrow academic sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s also a claim that \u201cyoung officers frequently decide whether to continue serving in the Air Force based on their projected roles and responsibilities, which are largely driven by rank and recognition.\u201d This is a packed claim that is notably devoid of any empirical reference and that disregards external job market conditions, satisfaction with base assignments, individual experiences of discrimination or workplace harassment, or any other number of major factors which have been empirically documented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To further complicate the discussion, early promotions were done away with at a similar time that officers started considering their options under the new Blended Retirement System, which offered a more appealing option of walking away early from military service. Thus, any linear claim about career decisions that disregards these nuances does not stand on the weight of its own logic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second point in the article is that the current setup incentivizes risk-averse behavior. With promotion rates as high as they are, most officers may feel, as the argument goes, like they can simply cruise into field grade ranks, and this denies the Air Force the kind of innovative leadership that is needed today. We\u2019re again left with some material to weave out implications. But the first thing I will note is that this in no way describes the vast majority of Air Force officers that I\u2019ve had the privilege to serve with, and to characterize the officer corps as conformist is a harsh claim that is, from my anecdotal observations, unsubstantiated, if not outright irresponsible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think it\u2019s also important to point out the implication here that not promoting at an accelerated rate, thus spending more time in grade, is akin to stagnation. I just don\u2019t understand, and the article certainly does not justify, the impulse to malign time in grade. In fact, all ranks should spend a good amount of time in grade. As officers we need depth, relationship building, longevity to see change and its impacts, and time to think long term about Air Force directionality. Most importantly, we need to work in a similar capacity with different people and teams in order to understand ourselves as leaders and our role within the Air Force culture. We don\u2019t acquire any of that wisdom by breezing through ranks, and to explain why I need not repeat Col. Lamb\u2019s essays on the subject.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/commentary\/2018\/07\/31\/commentary-the-air-force-is-not-designed-to-produce-good-leaders\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Goldfein_Shaw.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Commentary: The Air Force is not designed to produce good leaders<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Being in a leadership position does not make you a leader. Unfortunately, the Air Force officer system sees it differently. We talk a good game, but the system is seriously lacking.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is where I will take the liberty of referencing Maj. Rossillon\u2019s record, which he has publicly shared in the article and referenced in his argumentation, to reason my point. In the author\u2019s nine years of service he began with the impressive accolade of distinguished graduate at the Air Force Academy. He then spent a few years outside the operational Air Force pursuing graduate studies, placing him at (or almost at) the doorstep of the rank of captain. The overwhelming advice at this point for someone who has not had any operational experience is that they need to get some, and quickly, in order to round out their profile. Instead the author pursued another academic goal, a doctorate degree via a program that has now kept him outside of operational service for almost his entire career as an officer. While these achievements are certainly terrific, and I do not mean to detract any merit from them or the decision to pursue them, they absolutely, in and of themselves, do not prepare a military officer for senior leadership, a position which would likely require them, for example, to make Uniform Code of Military Justice command decisions without ever having supervised an airman. That\u2019s outright chilling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I will offer a point of convergence with Maj. Rossillon, which is on the notion of whether education should play a role in the promotion process. I tend to agree that it should be included. The Air Force does need a constant cadre of emerging strategic thinkers, and the role of education in providing that talent is undeniable. But it should not be any more than an additional factor to be considered and balanced against an officer\u2019s proven, and I must stress this again, <i>proven<\/i> ability to lead teams, flights, and processes across varying levels and types of responsibilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All in all, we\u2019re left with a few <i>non sequiturs<\/i>, some implied or motivated reasoning, and no empirical research to follow the argument. But, for the sake of the intellectual exercise, let\u2019s entertain that the opposite of what I argue is true, and that the Air Force should consider returning to early officer promotions. Such a decision should be data-driven and accompanied by empirical analysis of the impacts on people\u2019s careers and the innovative lethality of our Air Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new structure has been in place for a very short period of time, and there is value to a stable system in which officers have made and are making career choices based on their ability to promote in this system. Let\u2019s allow the data to accumulate. Let\u2019s see what a non-early promotion cadre of officers looks like in five or 10 years. Then we\u2019ll be able to dispense with anecdotes, stare at a slide deck, perhaps even consult a Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT, graduate on the data, and make an informed command decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Capt. Carlos M. Col\u00f3n Morales is an active duty Air Force officer currently assigned to the CENTCOM area of responsibility. He is a distinguished graduate from the ROTC program at the University of Puerto Rico. He also holds a master\u2019s degree in international relations from Harvard University and was a research assistant for the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force or the U.S. Defense Department.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Have an opinion?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>This article is an Op-Ed and as such, the opinions expressed are those of the authors. If you would like to respond, or have an editorial of your own you would like to submit, please <\/i><a href=\"mailto:opinions@militarytimes.com\"><i>email us<\/i><\/a><i>.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Want more perspectives like this sent straight to you? <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/link.militarytimes.com\/join\/5b9\/sign-up-opinion\"><i>Subscribe to get our Commentary &amp; Opinion newsletter<\/i><\/a><i> once a week.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A decision to return to early promotions should be driven by data, performance and other information on officers who were promoted under the current system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":102597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":17,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"4":{"categories":["commentary","opinion","middle-column","home","daily-news-roundup","newsletters"],"primary_category":"commentary"}}},"categories":[97,29,117,17],"tags":[8572,8573],"coauthors":[6746],"class_list":["post-114124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-home","category-middle-column","category-opinion","tag-commentary","tag-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"N4LURGPGAJFQRMZNSX4QMGDHPE","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2022\/08\/04\/an-air-force-return-to-early-officer-promotions-would-be-ill-advised-without-more-data\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An Air Force return to early officer promotions would be ill-advised without more data - Military Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A decision to return to early promotions should be driven by data, performance and other information on officers who were promoted under the current system.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Air Force return to early officer promotions would be ill-advised without more data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A decision to return to early promotions should be driven by data, performance and other information on officers who were promoted under the current system.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/opinion\/2022\/08\/04\/an-air-force-return-to-early-officer-promotions-would-be-ill-advised-without-more-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Military Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-08-04T18:40:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-20T14:05:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos M. Col\u00f3n Morales\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carlos M. 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