has been central<\/a> in trying to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia over human rights concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIndustry impact<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The decision primarily opens up sales opportunities for General Atomics and Northrop Grumman, which manufacture multiple slow-moving UAS impacted by the presumption of denial clause. Most medium-altitude, long-endurance systems like General Atomics\u2019 MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper fly at slow speeds, with the Reaper clocking in with a cruise speed of 230 mph, or 370 kph, according to an Air Force fact sheet. Northrop Grumman\u2019s RQ-4 Global Hawk, a high-altitude drone used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, flies at a cruise speed of about 357 mph, or 575 kph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Immediately after the announcement, both companies issued statement heralding the change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is critical for our national security that our export policies continue to keep pace with the rapid evolution of technology and support collaboration with our allies,\u201d said Northrop Grumman spokesman Tim Paynter. He pointed to the company\u2019s MQ-8 Fire Scout as another UAS that could be more widely exported as a result of the new interpretation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition, Niki Johnson, General Atomic\u2019s vice president for government affairs and strategic communications, said \u201cWe welcome the changes announced today that will alter the treatment of General Atomics\u2019 UAS under U.S. export policy. We look forward to this announcement leading to approvals for sales to a larger portion of the international market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ford declined to speculate about how much money may trade hands as a result of the change, aside from broadly saying he expects it will have a \u201cripple effect\u201d for countries who may be on the market for unmanned systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While broadly seen by the defense industry as a positive step forward, one industry source expressed concerns that the changes announced Friday could ultimately be toothless. In April 2018, the Trump administration announced a number of policy reforms aimed at speeding up the sales process, such as allowing certain UAS to be exported via the Direct Commercial Sales process as opposed to the more laborious Foreign Military Sales process. But those changes did not have the intended consequences, the industry official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cImplementation of the 2018 policy was very slow. It did not actually lead to that many new approvals in terms of countries that we can export to. So while we think this change will help us overcome the MTCR question during the policy review process, we still think that there is a higher hurdle for UAS within the conventional arms transfer policy ordeal,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Companies could still hit \u201cbrick walls\u201d within the normal State Department arms sale process if, for instance, the department finds that drone sales negatively alter the military balance among countries in a given region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe question for us is: Does this lead to policy approvals that allow us to go sell?\u201d the source said. This person added that if sales do not immediately begin to move forward, it\u2019s possible that \u2014 should former Vice President Joe Biden win the presidential election in November \u2014 the incoming Democratic administration could roll back the MTCR interpretation changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
During a phone call with reporters, Cooper stressed that the change in policy will not result in a blanket approval for all UAS sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is case by case,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not just a matter of addressing the [MTCR] requirement, because while UAS systems vary widely in their sophistication and application, it\u2019s incumbent upon the United States that we ensure that the systems we sell are used responsibly and will not threaten our interest or those of our allies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rachel Stohl, vice president for defense issues at the Stimson Center, called the unilateral decision by the White House \u201cyet another affront to international agreements and global arms controls.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cLet me be clear: A presumption of denial is not a \u2018no,’ \u201d Stohl said. \u201cIt just means you have to work a little harder to get to \u2018yes\u2019 and ensure that a lethal system that can change the nature of conflict, has raised serious questions and concerns about the legitimacy, legality, and strategic efficacy of their use, and has demonstrably impacted civilian lives is in the best interest of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOnce again, the Trump administration is focused on short-term economic gain rather than medium- to long-term security and foreign policy interests.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Michael Horowitz, a professor and director of the Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, argues that the change is long overdue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cTreating uninhabited aircraft as missiles for export policy purposes doesn\u2019t work,\u201d Horowitz said. \u201cIt has allowed China to capture a significant chunk of the drone export market, including with U.S. allies and partners.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Horowitz added that the decision to focus on speed may miss the big picture. \u201cRather than simply treating uninhabited aircraft as aircraft for export purposes, the new policy creates a speed test that addresses issues for current platforms,\u201d he said. \u201cDepending on implementation, this could be a policy improvement, but it could also lead to issues down the road as the uninhabited aircraft category evolves.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n