{"id":32181,"date":"2017-11-21T22:07:16","date_gmt":"2017-11-21T22:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/uncategorized\/2017\/11\/21\/break-this-force-air-force-warns-cuts-manning-woes-could-hurt-war-zone-fight\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T20:19:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T20:19:16","slug":"break-this-force-air-force-warns-cuts-manning-woes-could-hurt-war-zone-fight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2017\/11\/21\/break-this-force-air-force-warns-cuts-manning-woes-could-hurt-war-zone-fight\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Going to break this force\u2019: Air Force warns cuts, manning woes could hurt war zone fight"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Air Force has worried for years about its shortage of pilots, maintainers and other crucial airmen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But now, top Air Force leaders are sounding a red alert: The manning situation of some of its most vital airmen is growing worse and worse, with no end in sight if current trends continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if things don\u2019t change \u2014 particularly the ongoing budget caps known as the sequester \u2014 Chief of Staff Gen. Dave Goldfein said the problem is going to worsen until the Air Force struggles to fight overseas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, the Air Force has been able to keep its pilot shortage \u2014 now numbering almost 2,000 pilots \u2014 stateside and fully man its deployed squadrons. But at this rate, Goldfein said in a Nov. 9 briefing at the Pentagon, that could change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat keeps me up at night is if we cannot move past sequester in its current form, we are going to break this force,\u201d Goldfein said, adding that \u201cif we don\u2019t turn this around, then we\u2019ll end up heading down that path\u201d of deployed squadrons suffering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worsening pilot shortage is the most visible symptom of the Air Force\u2019s chronic manning emergency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the annual State of the Air Force news conference Nov. 9, Goldfein and Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said the pilot shortage has swelled to roughly 2,000 pilots, a shortfall of about one in 10. That\u2019s a significant increase from earlier this year, when the Air Force said it was 1,500 pilots short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pilot shortfall is most acute in the fighter pilot ranks, which are now 1,300 short, Air Force spokeswoman Erika Yepsen said in an email.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the problem is growing in other pilot categories too, she said. Between fiscal 2016 and 2017, Yepsen said the Air Force saw the greatest negative trends in its bomber and mobility pilot ranks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yepsen said the 2017 numbers are more comprehensive because they include all categories of pilots, including remotely piloted aircraft pilots, which weren\u2019t included in the 2016 statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pilots aren\u2019t the only short-staffed career field contributing to readiness problems. The Air Force\u2019s maintainer ranks have been undermanned for years, reaching a low point in 2015, when the service was short 3,755 of them. That\u2019s 6 percent lower than what it was authorized. The Air Force has slowly made progress on maintainers, and earlier this year expected that shortfall would drop to about 2,500 by the end of 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than a quarter-century of combat operations and budget uncertainty have created an operator retention problem beyond the pilot ranks, Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, deputy chief of staff for operations, told the House Armed Services readiness subcommittee Nov. 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, he said, AC-130 gunners is now the most-stressed career field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also said the Air Force needs to surge its production of operators in air, space and cyberspace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson and Chief of Staff Gen. Dave Goldfein talk to reporters during the State of the Air Force address Nov. 9 at the Pentagon. (Staff Sgt. Rusty Frank\/Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With the Air Force apparently unable to effectively turn around the pilot shortage and no relief to the punishing operations tempo in sight, John Venable, an expert with the Heritage Foundation and Air Force veteran, fears the service could be looking at a death spiral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He worries that after years of warnings from Pentagon leaders about the state of the military, lawmakers on Capitol Hill don\u2019t even hear them anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you are riding a horse in a combat environment, the horse is not going to tell you, \u2018Hey, I need to stop,\u2019 \u201d Venable said. \u201cIt\u2019s going to continue to give you everything it can until it keels over and dies. And right now, Congress is seeing the horse underneath them, they\u2019re whinnying a little bit, but they\u2019re continuing to take the fight to the enemy. And, unfortunately, we don\u2019t have the knowledge in Congress, or the care, that says you\u2019re about to ride your horse until it falls underneath you.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that Goldfein is openly discussing the possibility of combat capabilities degrading is a sign of how bad things are getting, Venable said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a big deal,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you convey weakness to an enemy, then you expose yourself to that enemy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with President Trump expanding the Air Force\u2019s authority to recall retired pilots to serve as instructors and in staff positions, the service is emphasizing that it has no plans to bring retirees back involuntarily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are an all-volunteer force,\u201d said Brig. Gen. Mike Koscheski, who heads a task force dedicated to fixing the pilot shortfall. \u201cThat is our focus.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Venable wonders whether the Air Force will need to resort to more drastic, involuntary recall measures, including invoking stop-loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s much the Air Force can do right now … except invoke stop-loss in order to stop this gross departure of pilots,\u201d Venable said. \u201cI had the chief of staff here at the Heritage Foundation [at the beginning of the year] and he said stop-loss is not on the table. But, at one point or another, you\u2019ve got to maintain your combat capability. And if they can\u2019t … I think he\u2019s going to have to [consider] stop-loss. It would be draconian, everybody would hate it. But I\u2019m not sure what their alternatives are going to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t