{"id":40030,"date":"2017-11-20T16:53:30","date_gmt":"2017-11-20T16:53:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/uncategorized\/2017\/11\/20\/no-signs-isis-fleeing-to-libya\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T02:12:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T02:12:50","slug":"no-signs-isis-fleeing-to-libya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/flashpoints\/2017\/11\/20\/no-signs-isis-fleeing-to-libya\/","title":{"rendered":"No signs ISIS fleeing to Libya"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 There have been no signs of mass movements of ISIS fighters to Libya, according to U.S. Africa Command officials. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With ISIS\u2019 physical caliphate in shambles, speculation of what is next for the fledgling terror group continues to drive analysts and U.S. government officials. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSince 2014, thousands of foreign fighters left North Africa to fight in Iraq and Syria, many of whom could return to Africa if ISIS efforts in the Levant fail,\u201d Robyn Mack, a spokesperson for AFRICOM, told Military Times. \u201cWhile we have seen no indications of a mass movement of fighters or leadership from the Levant into Libya, it remains a possibility.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The group is still reeling from its defeat in Sirte, Libya, last December, Mack said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sirte was once a stronghold for ISIS fighters until U.S.-backed Libyan fighters liberated the city in December 2016 under a barrage of heavy U.S. airpower, dubbed Operation Odyssey Lighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI believe at one time, they thought they might have a lily pad in North Africa, particularly in Libya. That hasn\u2019t worked out real well for them,\u201d Lt. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., Joint Staff Director, told reporters at a televised press briefing in the Pentagon on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since losing Sirte, ISIS has struggled to reconstitute itself in the war-torn region. ISIS fighters have primarily operated in relatively small disaggregated groups in desert regions just outside the city since their ouster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. has bombed several of those location spanning a week period at the end of September. Those salvos by U.S. unmanned aircraft were the first shots fired at ISIS since B-2 bombers dropped a large number of munitions on ISIS camps staged in the desert outside the city in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the strikes by the U.S. in September called into question whether the terror group was seeking to rebuild itself in Libya after losing much of its territorial possessions in Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pressed by reporters on Thursday at a Pentagon press briefing, McKenzie pushed back on assertions that recent U.S. strikes in Libya, Somalia and Yemen were a result of any kind of ramped up efforts in the region to target ISIS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI go back to the point that I\u2019ve hit a couple of times, that really we develop a lot of targets in these places,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it takes a long time to process those targets, to get them vetted, to again, to make sure that we\u2019re scrupulously correct in regard to the law of armed conflict and our own values and our own approach to warfare.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo if sometimes two or three of them might become available that get close to each other \u2015 I would also just note, parenthetically, that sometimes a strike produces movement and other targets become available,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since ISIS lost Sirte, the group has appeared to have trouble maintaining recruitment and force levels high enough to pose a significant threat in the region. ISIS only numbers around 500 fighters in Libya, according to Mack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cForeign fighters are likely continuing to bolster ISIS numbers in Libya, although given ISIS\u2019 recent low attack tempo, foreign fighters are probably not substantially increasing ISIS strength in Libya at this time,\u201d Mack told Military Times. \u201cFollowing the battlefield losses in 2016-2017, ISIS in Libya has maintained a low-level presence in Libya while they are likely attempting to recover.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent propaganda efforts by al-Ra\u1e63\u0101d al-Filis\u1e6d\u012bn\u012b, a pro-ISIS channel seemingly close to the ISIS network active between Gaza and Sinai, have attempted to showcase the group as a powerful force capable of retaking Sirte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 14-minute video titled \u201cThe Epic Battles of Surt\u201d was posted earlier this week that showcases ISIS fighters firing heavy weapons, including anti-tank guided missile systems, old Russian tanks, heavy machine guns, recoilless rifles and truck mounted ZPU anti-aircraft guns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But ISIS fighters don\u2019t really have much of this equipment anymore, according to officials at AFRICOM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cISIS-Libya forces likely lack the military tactics or strength to retake Sirte \u2015 or any city in Libya \u2015 since they lack a conventional armor force or heavy artillery,\u201d Mack said. \u201cISIS-Libya is probably only capable of launching small scale attacks against isolated soft targets, primarily using small arms and suicide bombers, and can attack such targets with little to no warning.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t