{"id":65561,"date":"2021-04-08T15:51:06","date_gmt":"2021-04-08T15:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/uncategorized\/2021\/04\/08\/above-average-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-may-keep-guard-busy-threaten-bases\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T03:07:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T03:07:34","slug":"above-average-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-may-keep-guard-busy-threaten-bases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/2021\/04\/08\/above-average-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-may-keep-guard-busy-threaten-bases\/","title":{"rendered":"Above average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season may keep Guard busy, threaten bases"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the first forecasts of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season calls for an \u201cabove average\u201d year, a leading tropical meteorologist said in a keynote address at Thursday\u2019s National Tropical Weather Conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Phil Klotzbach, who directs seasonal hurricane forecasts at Colorado State University\u2019s Tropical Weather and Climate Research Lab, projected that the Atlantic basin will see 17 named storms in 2021, five more than the historical average of around 12 per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A busy hurricane season could result in more activations an already-stressed National Guard, which has sustained an unprecedented workload since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic \u2014 at the peak of domestic operations in June 2020, more than 120,000 Guard troops were activated either at home or abroad. The storms also could pose a threat to military installations throughout the South, such as Tyndall Air Force Base, which was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.airforcetimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/10\/11\/tyndall-sustains-direct-hit-extensive-damage-from-hurricane\/\" target=_blank>devastated by Hurricane Michael<\/a> in October 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s a real challenge,\u201d to predict where exactly the storms will form and go, said Klotzbach in response to an audience question. But an increase in the number of storms inherently means an increased risk to vulnerable military bases, he told Military Times <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-military\/2021\/01\/05\/new-in-2021-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-and-potential-impact\/\" target=_blank>in December<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/news\/your-air-force\/2021\/03\/30\/three-f-35-squadrons-headed-for-tyndall-as-bases-fighter-mission-pivots\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"189\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/200515-F-XG376-0296.jfif_.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Three F-35 squadrons headed for Tyndall as base\u2019s fighter mission pivots<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Three F-35A Lightning II squadrons are officially coming to Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., as the Air Force rules out a fourth squadron at the former F-22 installation.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMore active seasons have more landfall,\u201d said Klotzbach in December. But the impact on the military and the National Guard in particular has a lot to do with luck, he explained. \u201cIt\u2019s all about location, location, location.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTyndall Air Force Base, that\u2019s&#8230;really, really bad luck that they basically were parked right in the middle of a [Category Four] hurricane,\u201d he said in December. \u201cHad the storm tracked 20, 30 miles in a different direction, you know, it wouldn\u2019t have been nearly as bad for them as it was.\u201d But had the storm gone approximately 60 miles further west, it would have struck Eglin Air Force Base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the December interview, Klotzbach likened the probability of landfall in any particular location \u2014 and the necessary National Guard response \u2014 to roulette. \u201c[In 2020], we had the most storms in the US in a year on record, but the damage overall wasn\u2019t super high. It was high, but most of the storms went into areas that were fairly sparsely populated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When Hurricane Laura hit Lake Charles, Louisiana last year packing 150 mph winds, some 6,400 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-military\/2020\/08\/27\/heres-how-the-military-is-responding-to-hurricane-laura\/\" target=_blank>Guard troops were activated<\/a>. But Lake Charles is a fairly small metropolitan area, emphasized Klotzbach in December. \u201c[Take] it about 100 miles farther west and run it up the Houston Ship Channel,\u201d and the National Guard response would have been even larger, he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Storm projections for the Atlantic basin in 2021 indicate the Guard may stay 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