WASHINGTON – “He’s coming for all of us,” said the serious voice on the other end of a late-afternoon call.
That was the assessment of one lobbyist when asked about the scariest thing to the defense sector since sequestration: Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) Chairman Sen. John McCain.
“He’s going to be a problem. There’s no doubt about it,” said the defense lobbyist, who has ties to GOP members. “He’s going to shoot from the hip. He’s going to be thinking, ‘who can I investigate, who can I hurt?’
“I think McCain as chairman will be good for a few [defense] companies, but for the vast majority, it’s not going to be positive,” the lobbyist said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. “Most chairmen these days are friends of the industries in their jurisdiction. John McCain is not a friend of the defense industry.”
That feeling is shared by other industry insiders and analysts.
“Sen. McCain has been the chamber’s most persistent critic of cost overruns and schedule delays on weapons programs,” said Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, who also advises major arms manufacturers.
Guggenheim Securities, a consulting firm, in a note last week said the Arizona Republican “has a well-earned reputation has being a critic of a litany of Pentagon acquisition programs.”
US weapon makers have good reason to feel gun shy about McCain’s likely ascendancy to SASC chairman. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the next majority leader, will make final committee assignments. McCain has said publicly he wants to lead SASC.
After all, McCain led the charge last decade to expose alleged foul play in an Air Force deal with Boeing for aerial tankers that he helped terminate. And the chamber’s “maverick” has battered defense secretaries, top military commanders and other senior national security officials and nominees in public and private setting
McCain gave the military industrial complex a potential preview of his chairmanship during a March hearing.
“You think it’s normal? You think it’s normal that the — the cost overruns associated with this ship, the fact that we don’t even know what … the mission is?” he growled at Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, then just a nominee.
“You disagree with the Government Accountability Office statement [about] the cost overruns?!” McCain continued, getting more and more agitated. “This is normal, Mr. Work?!”
One attendee at that session passed a reporter in the foyer outside the ornate Dirksen Senate Office Building hearing room and commented: “McCain. Typical.”
But undergirding a handful of conversations last week about the coming McCain tenure atop the committee was a sense that defense firms and the department might not have all that much to fear.
“The hearings will be bad. That will be the worst part,” the defense lobbyist said. “He loves to make grand stands. He loves to see himself on television.”
When a reporter noted that McCain is one of the biggest proponents of increasing annual defense spending on either side of Capitol Hill and asked on what would he spend half-a-trillion dollars if he had every underperforming program axed, the lobbyist replied simply, “Well, that’s a very good question.”
Gordon Adams, who oversaw national security budgeting for President Clinton and who still follows Congress closely, predicts “the same old McCain as chairman that we know and love.
“With McCain, it’s not ‘talk softly and carry a big stick’,” Adams said. “It’s talk loudly and carry a pencil.
“It’s not clear what he wants to do, and he can’t move the entire Senate. The only program or agenda McCain has ever had is saying, ‘The Pentagon sure wastes a lot of money’,” Adams said. “But guess what: He hasn’t done a thing about it.”
A McCain-penned amendment on the Littoral Combat Ship program was approved in May by the full SASC. But, to Adams’ point, it proposed no actual changes to a program McCain in April called a “shameful” waste of taxpayer dollars and suggested should not be allowed to enter production.
The amendment “would require a review into mission modules for the littoral combat ship to determine when they will be delivered, how much they will cost, and whether or not they will work as intended,” according to a summary released by his office.
So perhaps McCain isn’t really “coming for” every Pentagon weapons program and defense company. Some analysts and officials said McCain is merely performing actual oversight.
“I would imagine that I’m going to go speak with Sen. McCain more than I have in the past,” F-35 program chief Air Force Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan told reporters recently. “I think Sen. McCain is doing exactly what the American people expect of him. And that is to be very, very discerning and critical if necessary if he sees things he doesn’t like.”
The boss of the most embattled program in the Pentagon’s control says he has “no problem with him doing that.”
“He is also deeply committed to a strong and well-equipped military,” Thompson said. “So McCain’s chairmanship is good news for companies that perform, bad news for those that don’t.”
Guggenheim’s note predicts, “McCain’s ascendancy to the chair would mean some rough sledding for Lockheed Martin — the [F-35] and Littoral Combat Ship programs have been frequent targets of his criticism.
“McCain has also beaten up the Navy about the cost of Huntington’s latest aircraft carrier,” the consultancy writes, “but we think there’s little risk to the carrier program.”
The lobbyist said, “where McCain will have control will be in his committee — what oversight functions can he do to cause as much pain for the contracts.
“But he faces two hurdles: He still has to conference with House on a final bill, and the appropriators still control the purse strings at end the day,” he said.
In other changes, the Appropriations Committee gavel should move from Chairwoman Sen. Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., to Ranking Member Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., who survived a re-election fight. He also should take the Appropriations Defense subcommittee gavel from Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
“Lockheed Martin and Boeing would see some minor dings due to the demotions” of Mikulski and Durbin, according to Guggenheim.
In the House, Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, should easily secure enough GOP caucus votes to become the next Armed Services Committee chair, sources said. And Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J., should remain the House Appropriations Defense subcommittee boss.
Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., was re-elected and will remain the chairman of the full House Appropriations panel, as will ranking member Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Ind.
SASC Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., will retire. His preferred heir apparent, Democratic Vice Chairman Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, was re-elected, but could opt to be ranking member of the Banking Committee. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., and Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., would be next in line for ranking member of SASC.
So what will all of the changes mean?
“My sense is the impact will be quite limited,” said Chris Hemmer, a professor of national security studies at the Air War College. “I don’t really see a big impact.” ■
Aaron Mehta contributed to this report.
