{"id":19446,"date":"2019-04-02T01:06:22","date_gmt":"2019-04-02T01:06:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/uncategorized\/2019\/04\/02\/as-a-close-us-ally-in-africa-teeters-what-comes-next\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T19:03:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T19:03:51","slug":"as-a-close-us-ally-in-africa-teeters-what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2019\/04\/02\/as-a-close-us-ally-in-africa-teeters-what-comes-next\/","title":{"rendered":"As a close US ally in Africa teeters, what comes next?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The fragility of one of the world\u2019s longest-lasting political dynasties was exposed when the military attempted a coup in Gabon<\/a> in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coup, orchestrated by junior members of Gabon\u2019s military, failed to unseat Ali Bongo Ondimba, whose family has run the central African country since the late 1960s. And Gabon\u2019s next presidential election isn\u2019t until the summer of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bongo\u2019s time in office may run out sooner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 60-year-old strongman has been effectively unable to rule since suffering an apparent stroke<\/a> in October 2018, during Saudi Arabia\u2019s Future Investment Initiative \u2013 often called \u201cDavos in the desert.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His evident frailty in recent TV appearances, coupled with the failed coup and lack of an obvious heir, has created a strong national sentiment that Gabon\u2019s five-decade Bongo dynasty is on its last legs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Gabonese sailors conduct a visit, board, search and seizure training scenario during Obangame Express 2018 in Port Gentil, Gabon, on March 24, 2018. Obangame Express is designed to improve regional cooperation, maritime domain awareness, information-sharing practices, and tactical interdiction expertise to enhance the collective capabilities of Gulf of Guinea and West African nations to counter sea-based illicit activity. (Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Justin Stumberg\/Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One of France\u2019s last neocolonial outposts in Africa<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political upheaval is rare in Gabon, a diminutive central African nation about the size of the state of Colorado, with a population of 2 million and a lucrative oil industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Except for a short-lived military coup in 1964, Gabon has been regarded as a bastion of stability in troubled central Africa<\/a>, where my research is focused<\/a>. Oil wealth and the Bongo dynasty\u2019s French backing has contributed to Gabon\u2019s security<\/a>, and in recent years Bongo has used this stability to turn Gabon into a key U.S. ally<\/a> in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But stability is not the same as democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since winning independence from France, in 1960, Gabon has had just three presidents. The first was L\u00e9on M\u2019ba, who ruled from independence until 1967. The current president\u2019s father \u2013 Omar Bongo Ondimba \u2013 assumed power after M\u2019ba died<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Omar Bongo went on to rule Gabon with an iron fist for 42 years. To stay in power, he oversaw changes that ensured that the country\u2019s nascent electoral system never became independent, free or fair<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his rule, the elder Bongo helped to keep French political influence<\/a> and military might <\/a>alive in Africa by signing several mutual defense treaties with France. His policies benefited the \u201cFran\u00e7afrique<\/a>\u201d \u2013 a now-disparaged term<\/a> describing France\u2019s \u201cspecial\u201d relationship with its former colonies on the continent, which has included supporting dictators who protect its economic interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The West African nation of Gabon faces the Atlantic Ocean, with Equatorial Guinea to the north and the Republic of the Congo to the west. (NASA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Omar Bongo ensured that Gabon remained a \u201cneocolonial enclave<\/a>,\u201d as anthropologist Michael Reed wrote in 1987 in the Journal of Modern African Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGabon\u2019s very identity is inseparable from France,\u201d Reed argued, \u201cand the latter\u2019s continued claim to \u2018major power\u2019 status, in which Africa is crucial, requires Gabon\u2019s assistance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who assumed power after his father died in 2009 \u2013 in yet another election marred by irregularities <\/a>\u2013 inherited his father\u2019s fealty to France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabon still routinely aligns itself with French interests in Africa. During Libya\u2019s 2011 political upheaval, for example, Ali Bongo broke with the African Union<\/a> and called for the embattled President Muammar Gaddafi to step down<\/a>. France and other Western powers sought to dislodge the authoritarian Gaddafi<\/a>, while African nations supported Gaddafi, promoting \u201cAfrican solutions to African problems<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Seabees assigned to Naval Mobile Construction Battalion 1 work with the Gabonese Genie military to move concrete during construction of the Maritime Operations Center at the Gabonese Navy Base on Nov. 19 in Port Gentil. (Utilitiesman 2nd Class Krista Sosa\/Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A stable non-democracy<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rise of Ali Bongo \u2013 who was minister of defense during the latter part of his father\u2019s reign \u2013 was contentious even within his own Gabonese Democratic Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bongo was forcefully challenged by a senior former party member in the 2016 presidential election<\/a>, Jean Ping<\/a>. Boosted by the failure of Bongo\u2019s reform agenda to transform Gabon into an emerging economy<\/a>, Ping almost convinced the Gabonese people that the Bongo dynasty had to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the end, Bongo beat Ping<\/a>, a former head of the African Union Commission, by fewer than 6,000 votes, with 50.66 percent of the vote. Ping, along with many local and foreign observers, considers the results of that race fraudulent<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2016 presidential election was damaging for the Bongo dynasty. It was the first time that the opposition to the Bongo family coalesced around a single, credible candidacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ever since then, once peaceful Gabon has experienced political crises<\/a>. Ping\u2019s party boycotted last year\u2019s municipal elections, and his half of the electorate considers Bongo an illegitimate president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Gabon sailors and Marines tour Military Sealift Command’s expeditionary fast-transport vessel Spearhead in 2016. (Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Rich and poor<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabon has also been in an economic and fiscal crisis<\/a> since 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 2014 and 2016, government revenues decreased substantially due to the fall of global oil prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, the International Monetary Fund agreed to bail out<\/a> Gabon\u2019s government in exchange for structural reforms, including a three-year hiring freeze in the public sector<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inequality is also very high<\/a> in Gabon. Historically, its oil wealth has not financially benefited most of its people<\/a>, who remain quite poor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabon places 110 out of 189 countries<\/a> on the United Nations Human Development Index, which assesses longevity, education levels, poverty, social equality, maternal death and other measures of well-being. That is higher than immediate neighbors like Cameroon, Congo and Equatorial Guinea<\/a>, but lower than expected for a middle-income country whose government runs on oil money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The African island of Mauritius<\/a>, for instance, whose gross domestic product is similar to Gabon\u2019s \u2013 which was US$15 billion in 2017<\/a> \u2013 fares far better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It ranks 65th worldwide on the UN\u2019s human development index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
U.S. Soldiers assigned to the East Africa Response Force unload a flatbed truck in preparation to depart Libreville, Gabon, on Jan. 26. (Staff Sgt. Corban Lundborg\/Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A future yet to be written<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surveys show that 87 percent of Gabonese feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction<\/a>. They blame Ali Bongo for that, though 71 percent reject any attempt to install a military dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite attempts by the Gabonese Democratic Party to reassure the public that Bongo\u2019s health is improving, it is unclear if he will ever recover<\/a> enough to again lead Gabon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, an amendment of the constitution by Gabon\u2019s constitutional court in November 2018 has ensured that the president remains \u2013 at least nominally \u2013 in charge while recovering from the stroke<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Bongo dies or is rendered incapacitated \u2013 a scenario that, in my assessment, is already well underway \u2013 the Bongo dynasty will end.<\/p>\n\n\n\t