{"id":31712,"date":"2018-11-16T16:11:24","date_gmt":"2018-11-16T16:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/uncategorized\/2018\/11\/16\/why-experts-believe-the-us-could-lose-the-next-war\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T12:34:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T12:34:25","slug":"why-experts-believe-the-us-could-lose-the-next-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2018\/11\/16\/why-experts-believe-the-us-could-lose-the-next-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Shrinking Navy submarine fleet threatens national security, defense report says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usip.org\/index.php\/publications\/2018\/11\/providing-common-defense?utm_source=Daily%20on%20Defense%20(Template)_11\/15\/2018&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=WEX_Daily%20on%20Defense\" target=\"_blank\">independent review<\/a> of the 2018 National Defense Strategy by a 12-member bipartisan commission warns that the military might of the United States has degraded and could lose a fight against a rival power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retired <a href=\"https:\/\/www.navy.mil\/navydata\/bios\/bio.asp?bioID=253\" target=_blank>Adm. Gary Roughead<\/a>, who led the Navy as the chief of naval operations from 2007 to 2011, co-chaired the 12-member panel. It was convened by Congress to take a critical look at America\u2019s national defense strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their report \u2014 \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usip.org\/index.php\/publications\/2018\/11\/providing-common-defense?utm_source=Daily%20on%20Defense%20(Template)_11\/15\/2018&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=WEX_Daily%20on%20Defense\" target=\"_blank\">Providing for the Common Defense<\/a>\u201d \u2014 was released Tuesday by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usip.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">United States Institute of Peace<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its candid findings laid out a potentially catastrophic fate for America\u2019s armed forces in a future war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe U.S. military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and loss of major capital assets in its next conflict,\u201d the authors wrote. &#8220;It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia. The United States is particularly at risk of being overwhelmed should its military be forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAdditionally, it would be unwise and irresponsible not to expect adversaries to attempt debilitating kinetic, cyber, or other types of attacks against Americans at home while they seek to defeat our military abroad. U.S. military superiority is no longer assured and the implications for American interests and American security are severe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2018\/08\/10\/navys-top-officer-warns-of-increased-russian-and-chinese-activity-in-the-atlantic-ocean\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"166\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/180628-N-EA818-0085-Edit.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Navy\u2019s top officer warns of increased Russian and Chinese activity in the Atlantic Ocean<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said in a Voice of America interview that Russian sub activity in the North Atlantic is at a level unseen in 25 years.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The panel warned that after waging 17 years of counter-insurgency wars, many of the \u201cskills necessary to plan for and conduct military operations against capable adversaries \u2014 especially China and Russia \u2014 have atrophied.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report took aim at Congress, cautioning that the Pentagon must \u201covercome years of unprecedented budgetary turmoil&#8221; that have included \u201cmultiple government shutdowns and near-shutdowns, nine consecutive years beginning under either shutdowns or short-term continuing resolutions that have consumed over one-third of the time available to plan and execute readiness activities\u201d plus defense caps within the so-called \u201csequestration\u201d budget deal that began in 2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report\u2019s authors called for the Navy to grow, but not in the way that\u2019s outlined now: \u201cChina and, to a lesser extent, Russia invest in their undersea capabilities, the United States must expand its submarine fleet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both the National Defense Strategy and the shipbuilding plan that buttresses it fail to do that, the panelists warned, and \u201cthere will actually be a reduction in the number of submarines over the next decade.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The panel also pointed to the military\u2019s sealift forces, urging the Navy to dramatically recapitalize spending on those vessels to \u201cproject and sustain combat power into the Western Pacific and other theaters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The authors described \u201cdaunting challenges in establishing air superiority or sea control and retaking territory lost early in a conflict\u201d and cautioned military planners that American forces \u201cface harder fights and greater losses than at any time in decades.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe prolonged, deliberate buildup of overwhelming force in theater that has traditionally been the hallmark of American expeditionary warfare would be vastly more difficult and costly, if it were possible at all,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPut bluntly, the U.S. military could lose the next state-versus-state war it fights.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2018\/05\/07\/mattis-eyes-major-overhaul-of-navy-deployments\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/3660863-1024x819.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Mattis eyes major overhaul of Navy deployments<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Days of predictable rotational floats could soon come to an end.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The panel studied a wide range of solutions to the problems the report identified, some simple fixes but others complex issues that require help from institutions outside the armed forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s not helped by murky concepts and Pentagon jargon \u2014 with notions in the national strategy such as \u201cexpanding the competitive space,\u201d \u201caccepting risk\u201d in lower-priority theaters, the increasing importance of nuclear weapons or relying on \u201cDynamic Force Employment&#8221; \u2014 that are \u201cimprecise and unpersuasive,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAbsent a more integrated, whole-of-government strategy than has been evident to date, the United States is unlikely to reverse its rivals\u2019 momentum across an evolving, complex spectrum of competition,&#8221; the authors warned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A independent review of the 2018 National Defense Strategy by a 12-member bi-partisan commission warns that the military might of the United States has degraded and could lose a fight against a rival power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":62929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":65,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["your-military","news","pentagon-congress","left-column","home","middle-column"],"primary_category":"your-military"}}},"categories":[101,23,12,26,62,65],"tags":[8492],"coauthors":[3087],"class_list":["post-31712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-home","category-news","category-newsletters","category-pentagon-congress","category-your-navy","tag-china"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"EIY2EWKWMJCK7BGSTQNX75LJKY","arc_canonical_url":"\/news\/your-navy\/2018\/11\/16\/why-experts-believe-the-us-could-lose-the-next-war\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Shrinking Navy submarine fleet threatens national security, defense report says - Navy Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A independent review of the 2018 National Defense Strategy by a 12-member bi-partisan commission warns that the military might of the United States has degraded and could lose a fight against a rival power.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shrinking Navy submarine fleet threatens national security, defense report says\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A independent review of the 2018 National Defense Strategy by a 12-member bi-partisan commission warns that the military might of the United States has degraded and could lose a fight against a rival power.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2018\/11\/16\/why-experts-believe-the-us-could-lose-the-next-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Navy Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-11-16T16:11:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-20T12:34:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark D. 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