{"id":33768,"date":"2019-02-01T15:40:47","date_gmt":"2019-02-01T15:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/uncategorized\/2019\/02\/01\/in-afghanistan-is-this-a-peace-deal-or-terms-of-surrender\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:06:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:06:45","slug":"in-afghanistan-is-this-a-peace-deal-or-terms-of-surrender","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/2019\/02\/01\/in-afghanistan-is-this-a-peace-deal-or-terms-of-surrender\/","title":{"rendered":"In Afghanistan, is this a peace deal \u2014 or terms of surrender?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After more than 17 years of fighting, U.S. diplomats have been working with Taliban representatives at a breakneck pace to negotiate an end to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2018\/07\/09\/heres-what-a-massive-spike-in-airdrops-says-about-the-war-in-afghanistan\/\" target=_blank>war in Afghanistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The talks appear to be driven by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2019\/01\/17\/trump-still-poised-for-a-drawdown-in-afghanistan-after-the-deadliest-year-for-us-troops-since-2014\/\" target=_blank>President Donald Trump<\/a>, who is eager to close out America\u2019s costly foreign wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFighting continues but the people of Afghanistan want peace in this never ending war,&#8221; Trump said Wednesday. \u201cWe will soon see if talks will be successful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, U.S. diplomats brought news that the Taliban had agreed to a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2019\/01\/28\/us-taliban-talks-may-be-reaching-a-breaking-point\/\" target=\"_blank\"> draft peace proposal<\/a>. The details are still unclear, but it could involve a U.S. troop withdrawal in exchange for the Taliban\u2019s commitment to never again allow Afghanistan to be used as a safe haven for international terror groups like al-Qaida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The peace negotiations come at a time when the Trump administration is planning for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2018\/12\/21\/report-trump-eyes-major-withdrawal-of-troops-from-afghanistan\/\" target=_blank>withdrawal <\/a>of about 7,000 of the roughly 14,000 U.S. forces that are currently in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>But would Taliban uphold their end of the deal?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPeople who oppose peace negotiations always argue the other side can\u2019t be trusted,\u201d Barnett Rubin, a former senior State Department official and Afghanistan scholar, told Military Times. \u201cBy the way, there are people who for some reason think that the U.S. can\u2019t be trusted.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut that is irrelevant,\u201d he said. &#8220;Agreements to end wars are not based on trust. That would be ridiculous. They are based on common interest, verification, monitoring, and enforcement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One concern with the draft deal is that the diplomatic team has yet to announce enforcement provisions, but the negotiations are not over, Rubin said, and that appears to be the team\u2019s stance as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe have a number of issues left to work out,&#8221; U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad said after leaving the latest round of talks. \u201cNothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and \u2018everything\u2019 must include an intra-Afghan dialogue and comprehensive ceasefire.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the final draft has yet to be inked, pundits and politicians have already weighed in. In a bipartisan vote, the Senate advanced an amendment Thursday that would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2019\/02\/01\/senate-vote-rebukes-trump-on-syria-afghanistan\/\" target=_blank>oppose withdrawing troops from Afghanistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The legislation stated that a \u201cprecipitous withdrawal\u201d could \u201callow terrorists to regroup, destabilize critical regions, and create vacuums that could be filled by Iran or Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some senators opposed the amendment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt is ludicrous to call withdrawal after 17 years \u2018precipitous,'&#8221; Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, a longtime critic of America\u2019s foreign wars, said after the measure was advanced for a final vote as soon as next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The eagerness of officials like Trump and Paul means the U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness, according to Thomas Joscelyn, a prominent al-Qaida and Taliban watcher and senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Taliban know we\u2019re heading for the exit,\u201d Joscelyn told Military Times. \u201cThe U.S. has already granted them two big things: put total withdrawal on the table, and proceed to the talks without the Afghan government.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Joscelyn, that legitimizes the Taliban\u2019s political clout. Their military prowess, compared to Afghan government forces, is largely without question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cJust look at the last year, the U.S. had to bail out Afghan forces in Farah and Ghazni [cities] when they were starting to get overrun,\u201d Joscelyn said, adding that al-Qaida players were present during the assaults. \u201cYou take the U.S. out of that equation and I think the Taliban will take provincial capitals pretty quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Joscelyn, like many others criticizing the negotiations, does not trust the Taliban\u2019s promise to ban al-Qaida. He pointed to the group\u2019s own statement after the meeting in Qatar, which did not include written promises to prevent international terror groups from working in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf they were going to renounce al-Qaida in writing, that would be meaningful because it\u2019s something they\u2019ve refused to do for 20 years,\u201d Joscelyn said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The international community has tried to coerce the Taliban to stop offering refuge to Osama Bin Laden\u2019s al-Qaida militants as far back as 1998.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe idea that they\u2019re going to do it now seems laughable,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the negotiations are still underway. After all, diplomacy takes time. Officials on both sides must usher notes and drafts back and forth between their leaders at home and those with whom they are mediating. The process in Qatar could take many, many rounds of arbitration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>The war won\u2019t wait<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All the while, the battles on the ground in Afghanistan march on. Two Americans, an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2019\/01\/18\/army-ranger-wounded-in-afghanistan-dies-of-wounds\/\">Army Ranger <\/a>and an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2019\/01\/23\/pentagon-identifies-army-green-beret-killed-in-afghanistan\/\">Army Green Beret<\/a>, were killed in combat this month. In November, four troops \u2014 two Green Berets, an Air Force Special Tactics airman, and an Army infantryman \u2014 were killed by a single roadside bomb in Ghazni province, eastern Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many of the U.S. troops killed in Afghanistan are special operators, trained for years to be repeatedly deployed in and out of conflict zones. During counter-insurgency operations, their lives can be ended instantly by improvised explosive devices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But for every American killed, the Taliban surely suffer worse. U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan have been at record highs, paired with fine-tuned Afghan commandos and American advisers hitting Taliban strongholds and drug labs across the wayward country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, that isn\u2019t new. The U.S. military has been fighting at a high tempo for years, regardless of troop levels, which have often fluctuated based on domestic politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNegotiations \u2018fail\u2019 every day a meeting takes place and the parties don\u2019t reach complete agreement,&#8221; Rubin said. \u201cWar \u2018succeeds\u2019 everyday somebody advances a meter or kills some enemies, but then after 17 years it can add up to nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Do the Taliban want a seat at the table, or the whole meal?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S.-aligned Kabul government, which has not been officially present at the negotiations, remains uneasy with the whole situation. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called on the Taliban to \u201caccept Afghan demands for peace, and enter serious talks\u201d with his administration during a nationally televised address this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many wonder whether the Taliban will negotiate at all with Ghani\u2019s government, which the militant group has long derided as \u201cWestern puppets\u201d in their propaganda statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEverything this group has said over the years is that they\u2019re the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and that\u2019s the only legitimate ruling authority,&#8221; Joscelyn said. &#8220;That\u2019s what the Taliban fighters have been fighting for. You can\u2019t suddenly invalidate the central purpose for their war after all these years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But Rubin disagrees. Taliban ideology, he said, has the potential for flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Taliban are Deobandis, many of whom studied in Pakistani madrasas [Islamic schools] &#8230; which are headed by political leaders of various branches of the Pakistani Deobandi parties,&#8221; Rubin said. \u201cAll of these Deobandi parties, which say they have the same ideology as the Taliban, participate in parliamentary politics in Pakistan.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And in the past, the Pakistani Deobandis have entered into coalition governments with center-right conservative and left-wing socialist political parties in Pakistan\u2019s parliament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Taliban have never had the opportunity to participate in parliamentary politics,\u201d Rubin said, adding that its introduction to Afghanistan only came after the U.S. invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some Americans have already made up their minds. The negotiations may fail or succeed based solely on political brinkmanship within Washington. Given the Senate\u2019s rare bipartisan showing to slow Trump\u2019s withdrawal, it isn\u2019t unrealistic to think U.S. policymakers may have grown too accustomed to foreign wars, far from American shores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe warmongering blob in D.C. says that if [six] days of negotiations fail, we need more war, but if 17 years of war fail, we need more troops,&#8221; Rubin said. &#8220;You be the judge.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet others still believe the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has staved off terrorists like those who struck on Sept. 11, 2001.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI\u2019m not unsympathetic to people who just want to get out. I get it,&#8221; Joscelyn said. \u201c[But] I have a problem with handing the Taliban and al-Qaida an outright victory, which is what this would be. I think there are ramifications for that within Afghanistan, and outside of it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for the Taliban, an old adage reportedly told to the U.S. envoy who currently helms the negotiations with the militants may illuminate their position. As the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan during the early days of the war, Zalmay Khalilzad was once sent a direct message from the Taliban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou have all the watches, but we have all the time,&#8221; it read.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Trump administration is pushing peace talks that aim to end the 17-year 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