{"id":36458,"date":"2015-12-30T23:35:17","date_gmt":"2015-12-30T23:35:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/uncategorized\/2015\/12\/30\/expert-iran-likely-to-seek-more-confrontations-in-2016-with-u-s-navy\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T19:39:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T19:39:17","slug":"expert-iran-likely-to-seek-more-confrontations-in-2016-with-u-s-navy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2015\/12\/30\/expert-iran-likely-to-seek-more-confrontations-in-2016-with-u-s-navy\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert: Iran likely to seek more confrontations in 2016 with U.S. Navy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

U.S. Central Command officials have called Iran’s firing rockets within a mile of the carrier Harry S. Truman on Saturday a “dangerous” and “unprofessional” stunt, but these sorts of provocative run-ins are likely to continue in 2016 as hard-line forces in Iran exploit uneasy\u00a0relations with the West, one expert warns.\u00a0Official reports are that members of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps fired\u00a0rockets\u00a0near the carrier Harry S. Truman as it crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, but U.S. Central Command officials could not elaborate on any motives behind what they called a “dangerous” and “unprofessional” stunt.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There could be a few scenarios, one Iran expert told Navy Times, but It’s most likely that<\/span>The provocative test firing by Iranian paramilitary forces\u00a0near the Truman as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz was likely ordered by senior leaders, although it’s unclear whether that was approved by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian\u00a0\u00a0incident was ordered by senior leadership at some level, but it’s impossible to know whether that was within the IRGC, <\/span>the Iranian military or the highest rungs of Iran’s government, said the Iran expert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Anything can happen, but it\u2019s very unlikely somebody\u2019s going to fire a missile or do anything like this without it being something known to the senior command,” said Anthony Cordesman, a national security expert Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy <\/span>at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a Wednesday phone interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IRGCN<\/span> vessels fired “several unguided rockets” about 1,370 meters from the Truman, the destroyer\u00a0Bulkeley and\u00a0French frigate\u00a0FS Provence, said Cmdr. Kyle\u00a0Raines, a CENTCOM spokesman, adding that while commercial sea traffic also was nearby, the missiles weren’t fired in the direction of any ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

“These actions were highly provocative, unsafe, and unprofessional and call into question Iran’s commitment to the security of a waterway vital to international commerce,” Raines said in an email. “While most interactions between Iranian forces and the U.S. Navy are professional, safe, and routine, this event was not and runs contrary to efforts to ensure freedom of navigation and maritime safety in the global commons.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rockets were\u00a0likely\u00a0glorified rocket-propelled grenades, Cordesman\u00a0said, as many revolutionary guard ships carry light armament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The behavior is not out of character for the revolutionary guard, he said. The guard has a peculiar <\/span>monopoly on operations within the Persian Gulf, while the Iranian navy has primary authority outside of it; the IRGCN is a paramilitary force that often seeks provocations with Western forces. In 2007, the IRGCN took 15 British sailors and Marines hostage in a high-stakes stand-off that ended two weeks later when they were released unharmed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
CORRECTING NAME OF THE GULF IN IPTC\rMembers of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard show their skills in attacking a naval vessel during military exercises in the Gulf on April 22, 2010. Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards launched a new “ultra-fast” boat capable of causing high destruction after testing it in a key oil supply route, at the start of a three-day military drill. AFP PHOTO\/FARS NEWS\/MEHDI MARIZAD (Photo credit should read MEHDI MARIZAD\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard provoke confrontations with Western forces and showcase their prowess in high-profile exercises, as in this 2010 drill where go-fasts attacked a target vessel.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Photo Credit: AFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“There have been cases in the gulf, where normally there is relatively tight supervision and both sides cooperate\u00a0\u2014\u00a0at least in ignoring each other properly \u2014\u00a0but there have been cases where the guards have deliberately acted out,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in some cases, he added, officers responsible have been promoted later, “sort of as an award for obeying orders, showing initiative or being symbol of the guard’s independence from the rest of the structure in Iran.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s not to say that those actions would be endorsed outside of the service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“It\u2019s unlikely givening<\/span> the levels of tension involved between the conservatives and the more moderate factions in Iran, that this is the sort of thing that the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]\u00a0would endorse,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On top of that, the rocket test firing\u00a0mild nature of the incident <\/span>doesn’t suggest a larger plot by the Iranian national security council,\u00a0ministry of foreign affairs or President Hassan Rouhani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“At the same time it seems unlikely that any given officer would do this, and almost impossible to believe that they didn’t realize what the political effect would be,” Cordesman said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The climate is tense following the signing of a nuclear deal earlier this year, as the terms continue to be carried out. Iran\u00a0recently transferred a large amount of enriched uranium to Russia, but Cordesman\u00a0said that wasn’t necessarily a reason for the guard to show force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

It is possible, however, that these stunts could continue \u2014 or even\u00a0spark larger tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“It is a very uncertain time, and it’s further unlikely that the revolutionary guards are not going to find ways to assert hard-line positions and occasionally protest the U.S.,” he said. “It’s unclear that the Supreme Leader would choose to stop them, simply because even though he’s allowed the terms of the nuclear agreement to move forward, his statements have often been very hard-line.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran will be as big of a problem in 2016 as the Islamic State group, Cordesman\u00a0said, “and at least as serious a threat.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran’s paramilitary fired rockets near a U.S. carrier. 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