{"id":45239,"date":"2019-09-14T19:35:15","date_gmt":"2019-09-14T19:35:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/uncategorized\/2019\/09\/14\/op-ed-why-disinformation-threatens-sway-the-2020-election\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T19:42:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T19:42:42","slug":"op-ed-why-disinformation-threatens-sway-the-2020-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/navytimes\/news\/your-navy\/2019\/09\/14\/op-ed-why-disinformation-threatens-sway-the-2020-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Op-ed: Why disinformation threatens to sway the 2020 election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2016, Russian operatives used Facebook, Twitter and YouTube<\/a> to sow division among American voters<\/a> and boost Donald Trump\u2019s presidential campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the Russians used to accomplish this is called \u201cdisinformation,\u201d which is false or misleading content intended to deceive or promote discord. Now, with the first presidential primary vote only five months away, the public should be aware of the sources and types of online disinformation likely to surface during the 2020 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the Russians will be back. Don\u2019t be reassured<\/a> by the notorious Russian Internet Research Agency\u2019s relatively negligible presence during last year\u2019s midterm elections. The agency might have been keeping its powder dry in anticipation of the 2020 presidential race. And it helped that U.S. Cyber Command, an arm of the military, reportedly blocked<\/a> the agency\u2019s internet access for a few days right before the election in November 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temporarily shutting down the Internet Research Agency won\u2019t be enough to stop the flow of harmful content. Lee Foster, who leads the disinformation team at the cybersecurity firm FireEye, told me in an interview that the agency is \u201ca small component of the overall Russian operation,\u201d which also includes Moscow\u2019s military intelligence service and possibly other organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over time, Foster said, \u201cAll of these actors rework their approaches and tactics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there\u2019s more to fear than just the Russians. I\u2019m the author of a new report<\/a> on disinformation and the 2020 election published by the New York University Stern Center for Business and Human Rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the report, I predict that the Russians won\u2019t be alone in spreading disinformation in 2020. Their most likely imitator will be Iran, especially if hostility between Tehran and Washington continues to mount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Certfa researchers Nariman Gharib, right, and Amin Sabeti speak to a colleague at a cafe in London on Friday. The London-based cybersecurity group Certfa tracked how a hacking group often nicknamed Charming Kitten spent the past month trying to break into the private emails of more than a dozen U.S. Treasury officials. Also on the hackers\u2019 hit list: high-profile defenders, detractors and enforcers of the nuclear deal struck between Washington and Tehran, as well as Arab atomic scientists, Iranian civil society figures and D.C. think tank employees. (Raphael Satter\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Disinformation isn\u2019t just Russian<\/b><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May, acting on a tip from FireEye, Facebook took down nearly 100 Iranian-related accounts<\/a>, pages and groups. The Iranian network had used fake American identities to espouse both conservative and liberal political views<\/a>, while also promoting extremely divisive anti-Saudi, anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian themes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Senate Intelligence Committee co-chair Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, has said, \u201cThe Iranians are now following the Kremlin\u2019s playbook<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While foreign election interference has dominated discussion of disinformation, most intentionally false content targeting U.S. social media is generated by domestic sources<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe that will continue to be the case in 2020. President Trump often uses Twitter to circulate conspiracy theories and cast his foes as corrupt<\/a>. One story line he pushes is that Facebook, Twitter and Google are colluding with Democrats to undermine him<\/a>. Introducing a right-wing \u201csocial media summit\u201d<\/a> at the White House in July, he tweeted about the \u201ctremendous dishonesty, bias, discrimination<\/a>, and suppression practiced by certain companies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supporters of Democrats also have trafficked in disinformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December 2017, a group of liberal activists created fake Facebook pages<\/a> designed to mislead conservative voters<\/a> in a special U.S. Senate race in Alabama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matt Osborne, who has acknowledged being involved<\/a> in the Alabama scheme, told me that in 2020, \u201cyou\u2019re going to see a movement toward [political spending from undisclosed sources] on digital campaigns in the closing days of the race.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He suggests there could be an effort to discourage Republicans from voting with \u201can image of a red wave with a triumphal statement that imbues them with a sense of inevitable victory: \u2018No need to bother voting. Trump has got it in the bag.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In this file photo taken Feb. 18, 2018, is a view of a business center believed to be the location of the St. Petersburg, Russia-based Internet Research Agency, a “troll farm” whose members were indicted by U.S. special investigator Robert Mueller. (Mstyslav Chernov\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Spreading fake videos<\/b><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also likely to surface next year: \u201cdeepfake<\/a>\u201d videos. This technique produces highly convincing \u2013 but false \u2013 images and audio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent letter to the CEOs<\/a> of Facebook, Google and Twitter, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, wrote: \u201cA timely, convincing deepfake video<\/a> of a candidate\u201d that goes viral on a platform \u201ccould hijack a race \u2013 and even alter the course of history. \u2026 The consequences for our democracy could be devastating.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instagram could be a vehicle for deepfakes. Owned by Facebook, the photo and video platform played a much bigger role in Russia\u2019s manipulation<\/a> of the 2016 U.S. election than most people realize, and it could be exploited again in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian Internet Research Agency enjoyed more user engagement on Instagram than it did on any other platform, according to a December 2018 report<\/a> commissioned by the Senate Intelligence Committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cInstagram is likely to be a key battleground on an ongoing basis,\u201d the report added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The British Army as well as other major militaries are struggling to figure out how to operate in the information space where adversaries have thrived when it comes to spreading disinformation, creating unrest. Learning how to engage communities using social media and other avenues in a virtual world could help counter those efforts. (Photo by U.S. Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Companies could step up<\/b><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The social media companies are responding to the problem of disinformation<\/a> by improving their artificial intelligence filters and hiring thousands of additional employees devoted to safety and security. \u201cThe companies are getting much better at detection and removal of fake accounts,\u201d Dipayan Ghosh<\/a>, co-director of the Harvard Kennedy School\u2019s Platform Accountability Project, told me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the companies do not completely remove much of the content they pinpoint as false; they merely reduce how often it appears for users<\/a>, and sometimes post a message noting that it\u2019s false.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my view, provably false material should be eliminated from feeds and recommendations, with a copy retained in a cordoned-off archive available for research purposes to scholars, journalists and others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another problem is that responsibility for content decisions now tends to be scattered among different teams within each of the social media companies. Our report recommends that to streamline and centralize, each company should hire a senior official<\/a> who reports to the CEO and is responsible for overseeing the fight against disinformation. Such executives could marshal resources more easily within each company and more effectively coordinate efforts across social media companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the platforms could also cooperate more than they currently do to stamp out disinformation. They\u2019ve collaborated effectively to root out child pornography<\/a> and terrorist incitement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe they now have a collective responsibility to rid the coming election of as much disinformation as possible. An electorate that has been fed lies about candidates and issues can\u2019t make informed decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Votes will be based on falsehoods. And that means the future of American democracy \u2013 in 2020 and beyond \u2013 depends on dealing effectively with disinformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\t